Climate Impact Storylines for Assessing Socio-Economic Responses to Remote Events

Hurk, Bart van den; Pacchetti, Marina Baldissera; Ciullo, Alessio; Coulter, Liese; Dessai, Suraje; Ercin, Ertug; Goulart, Henrique Moreno Dumont; Hamed, Raed I.; Hochrainer, Stefan; Koks, Elco; Kubiczek, Patryk; Levermann, Anders; Mechler, Reinhard; Meersbergen, Maarten van; Mester, Benedikt; Middelanis, Robin; Minderhoud, Katie; Myšiak, Jaroslav; Nirandjan, Sadhana; Otto, Christian; Sayers, Paul; Sillman, Jana; Schewe, Jacob; Shepherd, Theodore G.; Stuparu, Dana; vogt, Thomas; Witpas, Katrien

doi:10.2139/ssrn.4090562

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 117 publications

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“…Methods). Using a storyline approach [19,20], we compare the price hike and impaired supply from the trade year 2022 in a factual scenario against those in counterfactual ones by varying key drivers.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stabilizing international wheat prices through international cooperation after the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Kuhla,

Puma,

Otto

2023

Preprint

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The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 triggered a global wheat price spike and food insecurities in import-dependent countries. We combine an analysis of the global wheat supply network with an agricultural commodity price model to reproduce the global annual wheat price hike in the trade year 2022. Using a scenario analysis, we show that international cooperation manifested in the Black Sea Grain and Solidarity Lanes initiatives and the removal of export restrictions may have substantially mitigated the 2022 price hike by 13 percentage points. In a worst case scenario – characterized by multi-breadbasket harvest failures, escalating export restrictions, and blocked Ukrainian exports – wheat price increase by 90% compared to 2000–2020 average. Short-term coping strategies – such as food-secure countries dispersing stocks, reducing wheat as feed, or boosting wheat production – are effective at mitigating the price spike in simplified scenarios. Our findings emphasize the importance of internationally coordinated response measures in averting larger food crises.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stabilizing international wheat prices through international cooperation after the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Kuhla,

Puma,

Otto

2023

Preprint

Self Cite

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Risk management against indirect risks from disasters: A multi-model and participatory governance framework applied to flood risk in Austria

Hochrainer-Stigler,

Bachner,

Knittel

et al. 2024

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

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Economic losses from hurricanes cannot be nationally offset under unabated warming

Middelanis

Willner²,

Otto³

et al. 2022

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Tropical cyclones range among the costliest of all meteorological events worldwide and planetary scale warming provides more energy and moisture to these storms. Modelling the national and global economic repercussions of 2017’s Hurricane Harvey, we find a qualitative change in the global economic response in an increasingly warmer world. While the United States were able to balance regional production failures by the original 2017 hurricane, this option becomes less viable under future warming. In our simulations of over 7000 regional economic sectors with more than 1.8 million supply chain connections, the US are not able to offset the losses by use of national efforts with intensifying hurricanes under unabated warming. At a certain warming level other countries have to step in to supply the necessary goods for production, which gives US economic sectors a competitive disadvantage. In the highly localized mining and quarrying sector—which here also comprises the oil and gas production industry—this disadvantage emerges already with the original Hurricane Harvey and intensifies under warming. Eventually, also other regions reach their limit of what they can offset. While we chose the example of a specific hurricane impacting a specific region, the mechanism is likely applicable to other climate-related events in other regions and other sectors. It is thus likely that the regional economic sectors that are best adapted to climate change gain significant advantage over their competitors under future warming.

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Climate Impact Storylines for Assessing Socio-Economic Responses to Remote Events

Cited by 3 publications

References 117 publications

Stabilizing international wheat prices through international cooperation after the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Stabilizing international wheat prices through international cooperation after the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Risk management against indirect risks from disasters: A multi-model and participatory governance framework applied to flood risk in Austria

Economic losses from hurricanes cannot be nationally offset under unabated warming

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