Climate, History and the Modern World

Lamb, H. H.

doi:10.4324/9780203433652

Cited by 648 publications

(340 citation statements)

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“…Within the range of the missing core-top data, observed higher latitude climatic variations are consistent with the oscillating normalized parameters of such a model (Fig. 4), although chaotic short-term climate variations tend to blur the trends [14]. The model is initialized on the early medieval climate optimum at ~1000yr AD when the Drift flow and NADW formation rate were maximal and ABW presence in the North Atlantic would have been minimal.…”

Section: [13] a Sinusoidal Modelsupporting

confidence: 73%

“…The high-latitude climate changes over the last 1000yrs are consistent with the model. During the early medieval climate optimum, warmth in Scandinavia and the northern British Isles enabled large populations to thrive, and English wines rivaled those of France [14]. The Norse established pastoral colonies on Iceland and southern Greenland, with a Norse presence documented at 79˚N in the Nares Strait [15] between the polar M a r c h 1 7 , 2 0 1 5 ocean and Baffin Bay.…”

Section: [13] a Sinusoidal Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Did a bi-polar multi-level oceanic oscillation cause the Little Ice Age and other high latitude climate extremes?

Johnson

2015

JNS

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Variations of ice-rafted sand and sediment from deep-sea cores beneath the North Atlantic Drift imply 1500yr cycles of the Drift flow and its associated climate warmth in northern North Atlantic regions. The Drift cycle is part of a complex bi-polar oceanic oscillation. Central to the oscillation is the relatively higher sea surface salinity of the high-latitude Greenland Sea that enables the winter sinking of surface water to form North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). This drives the oscillation, and the NADW is replaced by water from the Drift. The oscillation causes climate extremes in both northern and southern high latitudes and is framed here in a sinusoidal model. The model is consistent with and may explain the early medieval climate optimum, the subsequent Little Ice Age, the recent record maximum area of Antarctic winter sea ice, and the related record low rate of Antarctic Bottom Water (ABW) formation. The negative feedback of lower salinity ABW entering the northern North Atlantic tends to inhibit NADW formation and the northward Drift flow. The positive feedback of warmer and higher salinity NADW mixing into the Southern Ocean around Antarctica tends to reduce sea ice formation and enhance the rate of ABW formation. Because of these feedbacks, the rate of NADW formation oscillates over a range less than a maximum without feedback, the rate of ABW formation oscillates over a range greater than a minimum without feedback, and the phase of NADW oscillation in the model leads the ABW oscillation by 375 years. The model predicts another northern North Atlantic climate optimum about 2500 AD. However, increases in penetration of the polar ocean by flow of Atlantic water in the process of replacing the sinking NADW suggest that an interval of extreme warmth in the northeastern North Atlantic may occur within decades. This penetration could result in the loss of perennial sea ice along the northern coast of Greenland. Much of the inferred increase of northward winter flow of northeastern North Atlantic water into the Greenland Sea in recent decades may be due to stronger NADW formation caused by greater salt contributions to the Drift from the Mediterranean outflow.

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Section: [13] a Sinusoidal Modelsupporting

confidence: 73%

Section: [13] a Sinusoidal Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Did a bi-polar multi-level oceanic oscillation cause the Little Ice Age and other high latitude climate extremes?

Johnson

2015

JNS

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“…The Medieval period along the Brittany coast is noted for its massive storms, two of which may be significant here. The Lucia Flood storm of 14 December 1287 significantly eroded marshland in northern France, while the All Saints Flood of 1-6 November 1570 affected most of Western Europe, killing an estimated 400,000 people (Lamb, 1982;Bryant, 2005).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reconnaissance of historic (post-AD 1000) high-energy deposits along the Atlantic coasts of southwest Britain, Ireland and Brittany, France

Haslett

Bryant

2007

Marine Geology

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Sand and gravel deposits from the Atlantic coasts of southwest Britain, Brittany and western Ireland are identified as potential indicators of historic (post-AD 1000) ocean-sourced high-energy events, such as storm surges and tsunami. This is an important historic period as it includes the climatic perturbations of the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age, and also seismogenic events, such as the Lisbon tsunami of 1755. Ten new sites are identified from various coastal settings and dated using eight new radiocarbon dates alongside previously published data. Generally, sites do not appear to record multiple high-energy events, suggesting that either only the most extreme and/or recent events are registered. A number of radiocarbon dates from marine shell yield modern ages when corrected for the marine reservoir effect. Rather than necessarily indicating recent deposition, this may reflect a poor understanding of terrestrial carbon input into coastal and estuarine waters, and the practice of applying broad regional ΔR values at the local scale. Two groupings of radiocarbon dates are recognised; a Medieval Group and a Post-Medieval Group, which might reflect events within known climatic perturbations and/or tsunami occurrences. These events may include the Lucia Flood of 1287, the All Saint's Day Flood of 1570, the 1607 Flood, the Great Storm of 1703, and the Lisbon tsunami. Some older (pre-AD 1000) deposits indicate the potential to construct frequency/ magnitude records of high-energy events throughout the Holocene. Data presented here support the view that salt marshes within the Bristol Channel and Severn Estuary were completely eroded away early in the 17th century. AbstractSand and gravel deposits from the Atlantic coasts of southwest Britain, Brittany and western Ireland are identified as potential indicators of historic (post-AD 1000) ocean-sourced high-energy events, such as storm surges and tsunami. This is an important historic period as it includes the climatic perturbations of the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age, and also seismogenic events, such as the Lisbon tsunami of 1755. Ten new sites are identified from various coastal settings and dated using eight new radiocarbon dates alongside previously published data. Generally, sites do not appear to record multiple high-energy events, suggesting that either only the most extreme and/or recent events are registered. A number of radiocarbon dates from marine shell yield modern ages when corrected for the marine reservoir effect. Rather than necessarily indicating recent deposition, this may reflect a poor understanding of terrestrial carbon input into coastal and estuarine waters, and the practice of applying broad regional ǻR values at the local scale. Two groupings of radiocarbon dates are recognised; a Medieval Group and a Post-Medieval Group, which might reflect events within known climatic perturbations and/or tsunami occurrences. These events may include the Lucia Flood of 1287, the All Saint's Day Flood of 1570, the 1607...

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“…Therefore, there is the need to study climate during the historical time using high resolution proxies for patterns of the natural variability in the past and to evaluate the potential implications of climate changes for the future (Bradley, 2000). Previous studies based on a variety of proxies, such as tree rings, pollens, speleothems, and ice cores, have revealed that significant cooling and warming episodes existed since the dawn of civilization (Lamb, 1995;Thompson et al, 1986;Thompson et al, 1993;Hughes et al, 1999;Bradley et al, 2003). Some of these events occurred at similar temporal scales as compared to the more recent global warming and, therefore, may provide insights into the mechanisms of climatic changes, the scope or magnitude of natural variability of the climate system, the responses of ecosystems, as well as the adaptive strategies of the human society to cope with these relatively rapid changes in climate.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reconstruction of a 1436‐year soil moisture and vegetation water use history based on tree‐ring widths from Qilian junipers in northeastern Qaidam Basin, northwestern China

Yin

Shao

Qin

et al. 2007

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Tree-ring widths have been used widely in studies of environmental changes and reconstructions of past climate. Eleven tree-ring chronologies of approximately 800-1500 years long were developed from Qilian junipers (Sabina przewalskii Kom.) for northeastern Qaidam Basin, along the margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Previous studies have revealed that water usage stress is the most limiting factor for tree growth in the study region. To evaluate the impact of the combined effects of temperature and precipitation changes over time, we performed water balance modelling using 1955-2002 meteorological data. We found that the tree-ring widths were strongly correlated with variables representing soil moisture conditions obtained from the water balance model. Specifically we considered actual evapotranspiration (AE) to represent the combined effect of water use demand and moisture availability, deficit as the difference between potential evapotranspiration (PE) and AE to represent the severity of water use stress, and relative soil moisture as the measure of moisture availability. For certain individual monthly and seasonal combinations, the tree-ring chronologies explained up to 80% of the variation in the soil moisture variables in regression analysis, indicating very good potential for reconstruction of regional soil moisture conditions in the past. These soil moisture variables outperformed precipitation and Palmer's drought severity index in most cases. We reconstructed the soil moisture conditions from 566 AD to 2001, which revealed major dry and wet periods and a general trend toward a wetter condition during the most recent 300 years. By comparing with other proxies in the region, we concluded that the moisture conditions reconstructed from tree-ring widths very well reflected the climate variability at the interannual and interdecadal scales.

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Climate, History and the Modern World

Cited by 648 publications

References 0 publications

Did a bi-polar multi-level oceanic oscillation cause the Little Ice Age and other high latitude climate extremes?

Did a bi-polar multi-level oceanic oscillation cause the Little Ice Age and other high latitude climate extremes?

Reconnaissance of historic (post-AD 1000) high-energy deposits along the Atlantic coasts of southwest Britain, Ireland and Brittany, France

Reconstruction of a 1436‐year soil moisture and vegetation water use history based on tree‐ring widths from Qilian junipers in northeastern Qaidam Basin, northwestern China

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