Climate Extremes: Observations, Modeling, and Impacts

Abstract

One of the major concerns with a potential change in climate is that an increase in extreme events will occur. Results of observational studies suggest that in many areas that have been analyzed, changes in total precipitation are amplified at the tails, and changes in some temperature extremes have been observed. Model output has been analyzed that shows changes in extreme events for future climates, such as increases in extreme high temperatures, decreases in extreme low temperatures, and increases in intense precipitation events. In addition, the societal infrastructure is becoming more sensitive to weather and climate extremes, which would be exacerbated by climate change. In wild plants and animals, climate-induced extinctions, distributional and phenological changes, and species' range shifts are being documented at an increasing rate. Several apparently gradual biological changes are linked to responses to extreme weather and climate events.

A study of soil-dynamics based on a simulated drought in an alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau

“…As it has turned out, following climate change, the atmospheric hydrological cycle always changes, which induces some extreme events including higher magnitude of frequent droughts (Easterling et al 2000;Jiang et al 2012). These events could profoundly ravage the function and stability of the ecosystem (White and Jentsch 2001).…”

The Increasing Trend of Intense Precipitation in Japan Based on Four-hourly Data for a Hundred Years

“…It is recognized in many places of the world that precipitation intensity has increased during the last century (Karl and Knight 1998;Easterling et al 2000;IPCC 2001;Trenberth et al 2003). Model simulations imply that the global warming results in increase of intense precipitation, although there may be differences according to regions (Semenov and Bengtsson 2002;Kitoh et al 2004).…”

Seasonal/Regional Variation of Variability Characteristic of Daily Maximum/Minimum Temperatures in Japan Observed and Reproduced by RegCM Nested in NCAR-CSM

“…Furthermore, information on extreme events, such as extremely cold/hot temperatures, heavy precipitation, and drought, is required for such impact assessment. Easterling et al (2000) reviewed the results of previous investigations on the change in extreme events, detected by observation and predicted by models. Many works through observation indicate the tendency of an increase in extremely warm days, a decrease in extremely cold days, and an increase in severe precipita-tion.…”