Climate extremes may be more important than climate means when predicting species range shifts

Germain, Sara J.; Lutz, James A.

doi:10.1007/s10584-020-02868-2

Cited by 46 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 113 publications

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“…However, these approaches are not possible for the vast majority of species, due to the lack of experimentally‐derived physiological response curves (Araújo et al, 2013) or the absence of temporal systematic data collection (Schurr et al, 2012). Other studies have explicitly considered inter‐annual climate to assess the relevance of temporal climatic variability on SDMs (Bateman et al, 2016; Bateman et al., 2012; Germain & Lutz, 2020; Margalef‐Marrase, Pérez‐Navarro, & Lloret, 2020; Zimmermann et al., 2009), but none of them has still provided an explicit comparison of the direct impact of including inter‐annual climatic variability on niche size, and its impact when assessing the relationship between environmental niches and demographic responses.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temporal variability is key to modelling the climatic niche

Pérez‐Navarro

Broennimann

Esteve

et al. 2020

Diversity and Distributions

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Aim Niche‐based species distribution models (SDMs) have become a ubiquitous tool in ecology and biogeography. These models relate species occurrences with the environmental conditions found at these sites. Climatic variables are the most commonly used environmental data and are usually included in SDMs as averages of a reference period (30–50 years). In this study, we analyse the impact of including inter‐annual climatic variability on the estimation of species niches and predicted distributions when assessing plant demographic response to extreme climatic episodes. Location Mediterranean basin, SE Iberian Peninsula. Methods We first characterized species niches with inter‐annual and average climate in the same environmental space. We then compare the respective capacities of climatic suitability obtained from averaged climate‐based and from inter‐annual variability‐based niches to explain population demographic responses to extreme drought. Furthermore, we assessed the relative increase in niche size when including climatic variability for a set of Mediterranean species exhibiting a wide range of distribution areas. Results We found that climatic suitability obtained from inter‐annual variability‐based niches showed higher explanatory capacity than average climate‐based suitability, especially for populations living in climatically marginal conditions, although both niches quantifications significantly explained species demographic responses. In addition, species with restricted distribution ranges increased relatively more their niche space when considering climatic variability, probably because in widely distributed species spatial variability compensates for temporal variability. Main conclusions The common use of climatic averages when characterizing species niches could lead to underestimations of species distribution and misunderstanding of demographic behaviour, with implications for conservation plans derived from SDMs, for example, overestimations of species extinction risk under climate change, or underestimations of alien species invasion’ risk. We highlight that including climatic variability in niche modelling can be particularly important when dealing with species with restricted distribution and populations at the margin of their species niche.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temporal variability is key to modelling the climatic niche

Pérez‐Navarro

Broennimann

Esteve

et al. 2020

Diversity and Distributions

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“…Alternatively, patterns in deadwood might only be created by significant storms that only occur so infrequently as to require long periods of observation. These long periods of observation are also useful in detecting past episodic mortality (i.e., Lutz et al 2020;Lutz et al 2021) or slightly higher rates of mortality on decadal scales (Birch et al 2019b;Germain and Lutz 2020).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The importance of large-diameter trees to the creation of snag and deadwood biomass

et al. 2021

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Background Baseline levels of tree mortality can, over time, contribute to high snag densities and high levels of deadwood (down woody debris) if fire is infrequent and decomposition is slow. Deadwood can be important for tree recruitment, and it plays a major role in terrestrial carbon cycling, but deadwood is rarely examined in a spatially explicit context. Methods Between 2011 and 2019, we annually tracked all trees and snags ≥1 cm in diameter and mapped all pieces of deadwood ≥10 cm diameter and ≥1 m in length in 25.6 ha of Tsuga heterophylla / Pseudotsuga menziesii forest. We analyzed the amount, biomass, and spatial distribution of deadwood, and we assessed how various causes of mortality that contributed uniquely to deadwood creation. Results Compared to aboveground woody live biomass of 481 Mg ha−1 (from trees ≥10 cm diameter), snag biomass was 74 Mg ha−1 and deadwood biomass was 109 Mg ha−1 (from boles ≥10 cm diameter). Biomass from large-diameter trees (≥60 cm) accounted for 85%, 88%, and 58%, of trees, snags, and deadwood, respectively. Total aboveground woody live and dead biomass was 668 Mg ha−1. The annual production of downed wood (≥10 cm diameter) from tree boles averaged 4 Mg ha−1 yr−1. Woody debris was spatially heterogeneous, varying more than two orders of magnitude from 4 to 587 Mg ha−1 at the scale of 20 m × 20 m quadrats. Almost all causes of deadwood creation varied in importance between large-diameter trees and small-diameter trees. Biomass of standing stems and deadwood had weak inverse distributions, reflecting the long period of time required for trees to reach large diameters following antecedent tree mortalities and the centennial scale time required for deadwood decomposition. Conclusion Old-growth forests contain large stores of biomass in living trees, as well as in snag and deadwood biomass pools that are stable long after tree death. Ignoring biomass (or carbon) in deadwood pools can lead to substantial underestimations of sequestration and stability.

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“…The weak connection of pointer years in the growth of conifers with the seasonal climatic factors examined is not surprising, as extreme deviations in growth are often caused by short-term climatic extremes (dry periods, heavy rainfall, heat waves, frosts, etc. 62 , 63 ) that might not force a significant deviation in climate variables summarized for the complete growing season. Regional-scale fires and pest outbreaks can also cause pointer years in TRW, although these factors are not independent of climate: droughts make fires more frequent and increase the rate of fire spreading; and warm dry weather is favorable for egg quantity and survival for many insect pest species.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and tree growth in the Khakass-Minusinsk Depression (South Siberia) impacted by large water reservoirs

Zhirnova

Belokopytova

Meko

et al. 2021

Sci Rep

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Regional and local climate change depends on continentality, orography, and human activities. In particular, local climate modification by water reservoirs can reach far from shore and downstream. Among the possible ecological consequences are shifts in plant performance. Tree-ring width of affected trees can potentially be used as proxies for reservoir impact. Correlation analysis and t-tests were applied to climatic data and tree-ring chronologies of Pinus sylvestris L. and Larix sibirica Ledeb. from moisture-deficit habitats in the intermontane Khakass-Minusinsk Depression, to assess modification of climate and tree growth by the Krasnoyarsk and Sayano-Shushenskoe Reservoirs on the Yenisei River. Abrupt significant cooling in May–August and warming in September-March occurred after the launch of the turbines in dams, more pronounced near the Sayano-Shushenskoe dam (up to – 0.5 °C in summer and to + 3.5 °C in winter) than near the Krasnoyarsk Reservoir headwaters (– 0.3 °C and + 1.4 °C). Significant lengthening of the warm season was also found for temperature thresholds 0–8 °C. Shifts of seasonality and intensity occurred in climatic responses of all tree-ring chronologies after development of water reservoirs. Patterns of these shifts, however, depended on species-specific sensitivity to climatic modification, distance from reservoirs, and physiographic regions. Mitigation of climate continentality and extremes by reservoirs appears to have offset possible negative effects of warming on tree growth.

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Climate extremes may be more important than climate means when predicting species range shifts

Cited by 46 publications

References 113 publications

Temporal variability is key to modelling the climatic niche

Temporal variability is key to modelling the climatic niche

The importance of large-diameter trees to the creation of snag and deadwood biomass

Climate change and tree growth in the Khakass-Minusinsk Depression (South Siberia) impacted by large water reservoirs

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