Climate Extremes and Compound Hazards in a Warming World

AghaKouchak, Amir; Chiang, Felicia; Huning, Laurie S.; Love, C. A.; Mallakpour, Iman; Mazdiyasni, Omid; Moftakhari, Hamed; Papalexiou, S.; Ragno, Elisa; Sadegh, Mojtaba

doi:10.1146/annurev-earth-071719-055228

Cited by 396 publications

(225 citation statements)

References 222 publications

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“…Additionally, research on post-disaster recovery efforts highlights the importance of “community strength and support” systems among communities affected by wildfire [ 37 ]. Collectively, these measures will likely be increasingly important to consider in the future as climatic extremes lead to the exacerbation of wildfire events and the occurrence of so-called “compound hazards” that may strain preventative measures, rescue efforts, and municipal resources [ 44 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Disproportionate Impacts of Wildfires among Elderly and Low-Income Communities in California from 2000–2020

Masri

Scaduto

Jin

et al. 2021

IJERPH

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Wildfires can be detrimental to urban and rural communities, causing impacts in the form of psychological stress, direct physical injury, and smoke-related morbidity and mortality. This study examined the area burned by wildfires over the entire state of California from the years 2000 to 2020 in order to quantify and identify whether burned area and fire frequency differed across Census tracts according to socioeconomic indicators over time. Wildfire data were obtained from the California Fire and Resource Assessment Program (FRAP) and National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC), while demographic data were obtained from the American Community Survey. Results showed a doubling in the number of Census tracts that experienced major wildfires and a near doubling in the number of people residing in wildfire-impacted Census tracts, mostly due to an over 23,000 acre/year increase in the area burned by wildfires over the last two decades. Census tracts with a higher fire frequency and burned area had lower proportions of minority groups on average. However, when considering Native American populations, a greater proportion resided in highly impacted Census tracts. Such Census tracts also had higher proportions of older residents. In general, high-impact Census tracts tended to have higher proportions of low-income residents and lower proportions of high-income residents, as well as lower median household incomes and home values. These findings are important to policymakers and state agencies as it relates to environmental justice and the allocation of resources before, during, and after wildfires in the state of California.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Disproportionate Impacts of Wildfires among Elderly and Low-Income Communities in California from 2000–2020

Masri

Scaduto

Jin

et al. 2021

IJERPH

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“…While humans have long adapted to regimes of water scarcity or excess, we are vastly underprepared for climate extreme events, such as the "mega" droughts, unprecedented wildfires, or their combinations, also known as compound events 41,42 . According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, compound events describe multiple climate drivers and/or hazards that occur simultaneously or successively to contribute to societal or environmental risk 41 .…”

Section: Research Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increasing Risk of Wild Swings between Droughts and Floods over Global Land Areas

Cheng

Liu

Chen

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Climate variability is nothing new. Of rising concern is the consecutive occurrence of reversed weather patterns — droughts followed by severe floods, which tip a precarious balance with lasting impacts on human and natural systems. Here we examined changes in the likelihood and spatial distribution of dry-to-wet precipitation events over global land surface using climate model projections. We find anthropogenic climate change is likely to stress more widespread regions with rapid see-saw changes from dry to wet spells by the end of the 21st Century, increasing the threat to water security. Additionally, Eastern North America, South and East Asia, and Eastern Africa are emerging future hotspots of extreme drought-deluge swings by yielding marked enhancements in the events’ occurrence probability and spatial coverage. This study can provide useful information for policy makers to develop integrated approach to drought and flood management, while broadening the scope of research on compound climate extremes.

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“…The resultant response of climate systems will depict features associated with increased intensity of precipitation extremes, a sharp decline in the number of wet spell lengths, and an increase in dry spell lengths (Giorgi et al, 2019). The unprecedented impacts of climate extremes threaten human health, economic stability, and stability of natural and build infrastructure (AghaKouchak et al, 2020). Thus, characterizing the response of the anthropogenic climate change, which results in extreme events such as an increase both the intensity and frequency at the regional or local level is an imperative task.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Changes in Precipitation Extremes Over East Africa Based on CMIP6 Projections

Ayugi¹,

Dike²,

Ngoma³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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This paper presents an analysis of precipitation extremes over the East African region. The study employs six extreme precipitation indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) to evaluate possible climate change. Observed datasets and CMIP6 simulations and projections are employed to assess the changes during the two main rainfall seasons of March to May (MAM) and October to December (OND). The study evaluated the capability of CMIP6 simulations in reproducing the observed extreme events during the period 1995 – 2014. Our results show that the multi-model ensemble (herein referred to as MME) of CMIP6 models can depict the observed spatial distribution of precipitation extremes for both seasons, albeit with some noticeable exceptions in some indices. Overall, MME's assessment yields considerable confidence in CMIP6 to be employed for the projection of extreme events over the study area. Analysis of extreme estimations shows an increase (decrease) in CDD (CWD) during 2081 – 2100 relative to the baseline period in both seasons. Moreover, SDII, R95p, R20mm, and PRCPTOT demonstrate significant OND estimates compared to the MAM season. The spatial variation for extreme incidences shows likely intensification over Uganda and most parts of Kenya, while reduction is observed over the Tanzania region. The increase in projected extremes during two main rainfall seasons poses a significant threat to the sustainability of societal infrastructure and ecosystem wellbeing. The results from these analyses present an opportunity to understand the emergence of extreme events and the capability of model outputs from CMIP6 in estimating the projected changes. More studies are encouraged to examine the underlying physical features modulating the occurrence of extremes incidences projected for relevant policies.

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Climate Extremes and Compound Hazards in a Warming World

Cited by 396 publications

References 222 publications

Disproportionate Impacts of Wildfires among Elderly and Low-Income Communities in California from 2000–2020

Disproportionate Impacts of Wildfires among Elderly and Low-Income Communities in California from 2000–2020

Increasing Risk of Wild Swings between Droughts and Floods over Global Land Areas

Future Changes in Precipitation Extremes Over East Africa Based on CMIP6 Projections

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