Climate extremes and agricultural commodity markets: A global economic analysis of regionally simulated events

Chatzopoulos, Thomas; Domínguez, Ignácio Pérez; Zampieri, Matteo; Toreti, Andrea

doi:10.1016/j.wace.2019.100193

Cited by 59 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Relying on a complete production compensation through market forces between European countries or at global scale may not be a viable climate change adaptation option. Climate extremes in a key producing country can induce global price spikes and modify trade patterns with effects going beyond the year of occurrence [41], and self-propagating trade disruptions [42]. For example, the lower 2018 production in Europe resulted in spiking cereal prices with an extra €50 per ton for wheat (base: €170 in May 2018) and an added €60 per ton for barley (August prices [40]).…”

Section: (B) Crop Production Anomalies In 2018 and Their Climatic Detmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of extreme weather conditions on European crop production in 2018

Beillouin

Schauberger

Bastos

et al. 2020

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

218

141

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Extreme weather increases the risk of large-scale crop failure. The mechanisms involved are complex and intertwined, hence undermining the identification of simple adaptation levers to help improve the resilience of agricultural production. Based on more than 82 000 yield data reported at the regional level in 17 European countries, we assess how climate affected the yields of nine crop species. Using machine learning models, we analyzed historical yield data since 1901 and then focus on 2018, which has experienced a multiplicity and a diversity of atypical extreme climatic conditions. Machine learning models explain up to 65% of historical yield anomalies. We find that both extremes in temperature and precipitation are associated with negative yield anomalies, but with varying impacts in different parts of Europe. In 2018, Northern and Eastern Europe experienced multiple and simultaneous crop failures—among the highest observed in recent decades. These yield losses were associated with extremely low rainfalls in combination with high temperatures between March and August 2018. However, the higher than usual yields recorded in Southern Europe—caused by favourable spring rainfall conditions—nearly offset the large decrease in Northern European crop production. Our results outline the importance of considering single and compound climate extremes to analyse the causes of yield losses in Europe. We found no clear upward or downward trend in the frequency of extreme yield losses for any of the considered crops between 1990 and 2018. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Impacts of the 2018 severe drought and heatwave in Europe: from site to continental scale'.

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Section: (B) Crop Production Anomalies In 2018 and Their Climatic Detmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of extreme weather conditions on European crop production in 2018

Beillouin

Schauberger

Bastos

et al. 2020

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

218

141

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show abstract

“…The IPCC report published on 2014 demonstrated that, on average, global mean crop yields of rice, maize and wheat are projected to decrease between 3 and 10% per degree of warming above historical levels. Climate change will contribute to global food insecurity by reducing crop yield, increasing expenses due to drought, and therefore increasing food prices and the number of people with poor nutrition [4,5].…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Bibliometric analysis of peer-reviewed literature on food security in the context of climate change from 1980 to 2019

Sweileh

2020

Agric & Food Secur

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Background Climate change poses a threat to global food security. Assessing research activity on food security in the presence of climate change is important for policymakers and funding sponsors to make future decisions. The current study aimed to give an overview of research activity on food security in the context of food security. Methodology A bibliometric methodology was implemented using the Scopus database for the period from 1980 to 2019. The search strategy utilized the title/abstract search of keywords related to food security and climate change with certain constraints. Bibliometric indicators, frequent author keywords, research themes, and international research collaboration were presented. Results The search query retrieved 5960 documents. The last decade of the study period witnessed an increasing trend in both the number of publications and the number of cumulative citations. The top five author keywords were climate change, food security, drought, adaptation, agriculture, and water scarcity. Mapping the retrieved documents showed four general research themes: water security, crop yield, food availability, and health. The Sustainability journal ranked first in terms of productivity while documents published in the Global Change Biology journal received the highest number of citations per document. At the country level, the USA ranked first in terms of numbers, India ranked first in terms of research productivity per GDP/capita, and the UK ranked first in terms of the number of citations per document. France and the Netherlands had the highest percentage of documents with international authors while India and China had the least. At the regional level, the European region had the highest contribution and the Eastern Mediterranean region had the least contribution. Half of the top-cited documents in the field were review articles and appeared in prestigious journals. At the institutional level, the active list included three Chinese and two American institutions. Conclusion Food security under the umbrella of climate change is an emerging global challenge. Research on new technologies to mitigate the impact of climate change on food security is a top priority. Research contribution and collaboration from world regions with limited resources should be encouraged.

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“…Wheat production in the Mediterranean and the Middle East is currently threatened by increasing heat waves and droughts (Fontana et al 2015;Zampieri et al 2017Zampieri et al , 2019aTebaldi and Lobell 2018a). Given the socioeconomic importance of wheat in the Mediterranean (Asseng et al 2018), as well as the global consequences of regional yield anomalies and losses (Chatzopoulos et al 2019), we have here addressed the need of reliable indicators to estimate agricultural resilience with respect to climate extremes.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In order to quantify the links between climate and wheat production variability, we adopt a statistical model defined as a calibrated combination of heat and water stress indicators, i.e., the Combined Stress Index (CSI; Zampieri et al 2017). The CSI has been widely used to estimate the effects of climate anomalies on crop yields anomalies in current climate (Zampieri et al 2017(Zampieri et al , 2018(Zampieri et al , 2019b; it was applied in the context of seasonal forecasting (Ceglar et al 2018) and in economical modeling (Chatzopoulos et al 2019). The CSI procedure was further developed to quantify crop optimal production and the climate-related losses from the recorded crop production data available at the country level and to estimate the future production losses according to climate projections (Zampieri et al 2019a).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate resilience of the top ten wheat producers in the Mediterranean and the Middle East

et al. 2020

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Wheat is the main staple crop and an important commodity in the Mediterranean and the Middle East. These are among the few areas in the world where the climate is suitable for growing durum wheat but also are among the most rapidly warming ones, according to the available scenarios of climate projections. How much food security and market stability in the Mediterranean and the Middle East, both depending on wheat production and its interannual variability, are going to be compromised by global warming is an overarching question. To contribute in addressing it, we use a recently established indicator to quantify crop production climate resilience. We present a methodological framework allowing to compute the annual production resilience indicator from nonstationary time series. We apply this approach on the wheat production of the 10 most important producers in the Mediterranean and the Middle East. Our findings shows that if no adaptation will take place, wheat production reliability in the Mediterranean and the Middle East will be threatened by climate change already at 1.5°C global warming. Average climaterelated wheat production losses will exceed the worst past event even if the 2°C mitigation target is met. These results call for urgent action on adaptation to climate change and support further efforts for mitigation, fully consistently with the Paris Agreement recommendations.

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Climate extremes and agricultural commodity markets: A global economic analysis of regionally simulated events

Cited by 59 publications

References 8 publications

Impact of extreme weather conditions on European crop production in 2018

Impact of extreme weather conditions on European crop production in 2018

Bibliometric analysis of peer-reviewed literature on food security in the context of climate change from 1980 to 2019

Climate resilience of the top ten wheat producers in the Mediterranean and the Middle East

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