Climate, Extreme Heat, and Electricity Demand in California

Miller, Norman L.; Hayhoe, Katharine; Jin, Jiming; Auffhammer, Maximilian

doi:10.1175/2007jamc1480.1

Cited by 182 publications

(111 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…We selected the state of California as a model system owing to its relatively early, rapid, and ambitious deployment of solar energy systems, 400,000 km 2 of land area (greater than Germany and 188 other countries), large human population and energy demands, diverse ecosystems comprising 90% of the California Floristic Province biodiversity hot spot, and its long-standing use in elucidating the interrelationship between land and energy (9,10,22,23).…”

Section: Significancementioning

confidence: 99%

Solar energy development impacts on land cover change and protected areas

Hernandez

Hoffacker

Murphy-Mariscal

et al. 2015

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

227

145

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Decisions determining the use of land for energy are of exigent concern as land scarcity, the need for ecosystem services, and demands for energy generation have concomitantly increased globally. Utility-scale solar energy (USSE) [i.e., ≥1 megawatt (MW)] development requires large quantities of space and land; however, studies quantifying the effect of USSE on land cover change and protected areas are limited. We assessed siting impacts of >160 USSE installations by technology type [photovoltaic (PV) vs. concentrating solar power (CSP)], area (in square kilometers), and capacity (in MW) within the global solar hot spot of the state of California (United States). Additionally, we used the Carnegie Energy and Environmental Compatibility model, a multiple criteria model, to quantify each installation according to environmental and technical compatibility. Last, we evaluated installations according to their proximity to protected areas, including inventoried roadless areas, endangered and threatened species habitat, and federally protected areas. We found the plurality of USSE (6,995 MW) in California is sited in shrublands and scrublands, comprising 375 km2 of land cover change. Twenty-eight percent of USSE installations are located in croplands and pastures, comprising 155 km2 of change. Less than 15% of USSE installations are sited in “Compatible” areas. The majority of “Incompatible” USSE power plants are sited far from existing transmission infrastructure, and all USSE installations average at most 7 and 5 km from protected areas, for PV and CSP, respectively. Where energy, food, and conservation goals intersect, environmental compatibility can be achieved when resource opportunities, constraints, and trade-offs are integrated into siting decisions.

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Section: Significancementioning

confidence: 99%

Solar energy development impacts on land cover change and protected areas

Hernandez

Hoffacker

Murphy-Mariscal

et al. 2015

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

227

145

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“…There would likely be competing effects with a negative impact from increasing extreme hot temperatures and a positive impact from decreasing extreme cold temperatures (Mills et al 2013b). Similarly, changes in extreme temperature would affect energy demand, with increasing extreme hot events leading to higher usage of air conditioning (Miller et al 2008;McFarland et al 2013). However, decreasing extreme cold temperatures would reduce the use of fuels for heating (Mansur et al 2008).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts on extreme events in the United States: an uncertainty analysis

Monier

Gao

2014

Climatic Change

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In this study, we analyze changes in extreme temperature and precipitation over the US in a 60-member ensemble simulation of the 21st century with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM). Four values of climate sensitivity, three emissions scenarios and five initial conditions are considered. The results show a general intensification and an increase in the frequency of extreme hot temperatures and extreme precipitation events over most of the US. Extreme cold temperatures are projected to decrease in intensity and frequency, especially over the northern parts of the US. This study displays a wide range of future changes in extreme events in the US, even simulated by a single climate model. Results clearly show that the choice of policy is the largest source of uncertainty in the magnitude of the changes. The impact of the climate sensitivity is largest for the unconstrained emissions scenario and the implementation of a stabilization scenario drastically reduces the changes in extremes, even for the highest climate sensitivity considered. Finally, simulations with different initial conditions show conspicuously different patterns and magnitudes of changes in extreme events, underlining the role of natural variability in projections of changes in extreme events.

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“…Historically, extreme warm temperatures in the California region have mostly occurred in July and August (Gershunov and Cayan 2008), but as climate warming takes hold, the occurrences of these events will increase in frequency and magnitude (Hayhoe et al 2004;Gershunov and Douville 2008;Miller et al 2008) and likely will begin in June and could continue to be found in September. All simulations indicate that hot daytime and nighttime temperatures (heat waves) increase in frequency, magnitude, and duration from the historical period and during the projected period through the first half of the twenty-first century (Table 1).…”

Section: Heat Wavesmentioning

confidence: 99%