Climate Drives Sea Change

Greene, Charles H.; Pershing, Andrew J.

doi:10.1126/science.1136495

Cited by 219 publications

(149 citation statements)

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“…Changes in Arctic climate at the transitions between the decades of the 1980s and 1990s and between the decades of the 1990s and 2000s resulted in abrupt changes in the export of freshwater from the Arctic Ocean to the North Atlantic. The first of these resulted in the Great Salinity Anomaly of the 1990s, characterized by the discharge of relatively low-salinity water from the Arctic Ocean into the North Atlantic through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and Fram Strait (between Greenland and Svalbard) [41,76]. North Atlantic circulation (increased discharge of relatively low-salinity water into the North Atlantic, and redirection of the shallow, low-salinity outflow from the Arctic Ocean mainly through the Labrador Sea [41,76]).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The first of these resulted in the Great Salinity Anomaly of the 1990s, characterized by the discharge of relatively low-salinity water from the Arctic Ocean into the North Atlantic through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and Fram Strait (between Greenland and Svalbard) [41,76]. North Atlantic circulation (increased discharge of relatively low-salinity water into the North Atlantic, and redirection of the shallow, low-salinity outflow from the Arctic Ocean mainly through the Labrador Sea [41,76]). The Pacific Ocean circulation is also influenced by the Arctic circulation [97] and by the AO.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This phenomenon explains why all species in an ecosystem do not exhibit a shift [45,87], and, if a limited 2002 2003 1999 2000 2001 1989 1990 1991 1996 1997 1998 1992 1993 1994 1995 1984 1986 1985 1987 1988 1977 1978 1976 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1972 1973 1974 1971 1975 1960 1961 1962 1963 1968 1970 1969 1964 1965 1966 To address this question, we analysed the first three PCs originating from the PCAs performed for each ecosystem to reveal the NH biological state (BioPC), together with climate indicators (NHT, AO, PDO and AMO) and with long-term spatial variations in NHTs and SLPs. These variables were chosen because previous studies have suggested that temperature may affect the biogeographical distribution of many pelagic organisms [7,69], while changes in the main pressure centres can influence ocean circulation and the biological processes [41,43,[88][89][90], as well as local temperature [6]. We searched for potential lags in the responses of all regions to large-scale hydro-climatic forcing but no lag was observed using cross-correlation analysis and cross-correlograms.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Regime shifts have been reported for the North Pacific (1976/1977 and 1989) [6,[26][27][28][29], specifically the northeast Pacific (1976/1977) [30,31], (1998/1999) [32,33] and the northwest Pacific (1976/1977, 1988/1989 and 1998) [34][35][36]; the Humboldt Current in the southern Pacific (1968/1970 and 1984/1986) [37,38]; and the northwest Atlantic (1989Atlantic ( /1990 [39][40][41][42][43]. In addition, regime shifts were observed in the late 1980s around all European seas [8]: the North Sea [44,45], the Baltic Sea [9,46], the northwest European shelf seas (1987/1990) [47,48], the western [49] and eastern (Adriatic) Mediterranean Sea [8,50,51] and the Black Sea [52,53].…”

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confidence: 99%

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Synchronous marine pelagic regime shifts in the Northern Hemisphere

Beaugrand

Conversi

Chiba

et al. 2015

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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Regime shifts are characterized by sudden, substantial and temporally persistent changes in the state of an ecosystem. They involve major biological modifications and often have important implications for exploited living resources. In this study, we examine whether regime shifts observed in 11 marine systems from two oceans and three regional seas in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) are synchronous, applying the same methodology to all. We primarily infer marine pelagic regime shifts from abrupt shifts in zooplankton assemblages, with the exception of the East Pacific where ecosystem changes are inferred from fish. Our analyses provide evidence for quasi-synchronicity of marine pelagic regime shifts both within and between ocean basins, although these shifts lie embedded within considerable regional variability at both year-to-year and lower-frequency time scales. In particular, a regime shift was detected in the late 1980s in many studied marine regions, although the exact year of the observed shift varied somewhat from one basin to another. Another regime shift was also identified in the mid- to late 1970s but concerned less marine regions. We subsequently analyse the main biological signals in relation to changes in NH temperature and pressure anomalies. The results suggest that the main factor synchronizing regime shifts on large scales is NH temperature; however, changes in atmospheric circulation also appear important. We propose that this quasi-synchronous shift could represent the variably lagged biological response in each ecosystem to a large-scale, NH change of the climatic system, involving both an increase in NH temperature and a strongly positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation. Further investigation is needed to determine the relative roles of changes in temperature and atmospheric pressure patterns and their resultant teleconnections in synchronizing regime shifts at large scales.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Synchronous marine pelagic regime shifts in the Northern Hemisphere

Beaugrand

Conversi

Chiba

et al. 2015

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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“…The welldocumented decline of predatory cod along Canada's Scotian Shelf was determined to have resulted in increased herring and other small pelagic fish, causing their zooplankton prey to decline, ultimately increasing the region's phytoplankton (10). However, the zooplankton and phytoplankton changes were also coincident with an oceanographic regime shift resulting from climate changes in the Arctic (11). That example illustrates confounding vulnerabilities associated with drawing conclusions from single-trend correlations.…”

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confidence: 96%

Apex predators and trophic cascades in large marine ecosystems: Learning from serendipity

Steneck

2012

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Wind-induced interannual variability of sea level slope, along-shelf flow, and surface salinity on the Northwest Atlantic shelf

Fratantoni

et al. 2014

J. Geophys. Res. Oceans

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In this study, we examine the importance of regional wind forcing in modulating advective processes and hydrographic properties along the Northwest Atlantic shelf, with a focus on the Nova Scotian Shelf (NSS)-Gulf of Maine (GoM) region. Long-term observational data of alongshore wind stress, sea level slope, and along-shelf flow are analyzed to quantify the relationship between wind forcing and hydrodynamic responses on interannual time scales. Additionally, a simplified momentum balance model is used to examine the underlying mechanisms. Our results show significant correlation among the observed interannual variability of sea level slope, along-shelf flow, and alongshore wind stress in the NSS-GoM region. A mechanism is suggested to elucidate the role of wind in modulating the sea level slope and along-shelf flow: stronger southwesterly (northeastward) winds tend to weaken the prevailing southwestward flow over the shelf, building sea level in the upstream Newfoundland Shelf region, whereas weaker southwesterly winds allow stronger southwestward flow to develop, raising sea level in the GoM region. The wind-induced flow variability can influence the transport of low-salinity water from the Gulf of St. Lawrence to the GoM, explaining interannual variations in surface salinity distributions within the region. Hence, our results offer a viable mechanism, besides the freshening of remote upstream sources, to explain interannual patterns of freshening in the GoM.

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Climate Drives Sea Change

Cited by 219 publications

References 12 publications

Synchronous marine pelagic regime shifts in the Northern Hemisphere

Synchronous marine pelagic regime shifts in the Northern Hemisphere

Apex predators and trophic cascades in large marine ecosystems: Learning from serendipity

Wind-induced interannual variability of sea level slope, along-shelf flow, and surface salinity on the Northwest Atlantic shelf

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