Climate-Driven Ichthyoplankton Drift Model Predicts Growth of Top Predator Young

Myksvoll, Mari Skuggedal; Erikstad, Kjell Einar; Barrett, Robert T.; Sandvik, Hanno; Vikebø, Frode

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0079225

Cited by 15 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…The physical oceanographic conditions determine both the vertical distribution of the offspring as well as the horizontal dispersal, as described by Myksvoll et al. (). When running the model on an annual basis, an accumulation of particles within a 100 × 100 km box (i.e., the approximate foraging range of common guillemots around Hornøya; Fig.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The stress hormone corticosterone in a marine top predator reflects short‐term changes in food availability

Barrett¹,

Erikstad

Sandvik

et al. 2015

Ecology and Evolution

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In many seabird studies, single annual proxies of prey abundance have been used to explain variability in breeding performance, but much more important is probably the timing of prey availability relative to the breeding season when energy demand is at a maximum. Until now, intraseasonal variation in prey availability has been difficult to quantify in seabirds. Using a state-of-the-art ocean drift model of larval cod Gadus morhua, an important constituent of the diet of common guillemots Uria aalge in the southwestern Barents Sea, we were able to show clear, short-term correlations between food availability and measurements of the stress hormone corticosterone (CORT) in parental guillemots over a 3-year period (2009–2011). The model allowed the extraction of abundance and size of cod larvae with very high spatial (4 km) and temporal resolutions (1 day) and showed that cod larvae from adjacent northern spawning grounds in Norway were always available near the guillemot breeding colony while those from more distant southerly spawning grounds were less frequent, but larger. The latter arrived in waves whose magnitude and timing, and thus overlap with the guillemot breeding season, varied between years. CORT levels in adult guillemots were lower in birds caught after a week with high frequencies of southern cod larvae. This pattern was restricted to the two years (2009 and 2010) in which southern larvae arrived before the end of the guillemot breeding season. Any such pattern was masked in 2011 by already exceptionally high numbers of cod larvae in the region throughout chick-rearing period. The findings suggest that CORT levels in breeding birds increase when the arrival of southern sizable larvae does not match the period of peak energy requirements during breeding.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…) and was used to show the influence of the availability of cod larvae on the size of common guillemot chicks (Myksvoll et al. ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The stress hormone corticosterone in a marine top predator reflects short‐term changes in food availability

Barrett¹,

Erikstad

Sandvik

et al. 2015

Ecology and Evolution

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“…For seabirds, one of the potential outcomes of climate change is seasonal mismatch between peak abundance of prey and critical periods of energy demand, such as chick rearing (e.g. Durant et al 2007, Myksvoll et al 2013, potentially leading to reduced breeding success and, eventually, decreasing populations (e.g. Cairns 1987).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forage fish abundance is a predictor of timing of breeding and hatching brood size in a coastal seabird

Lorentsen¹,

Anker‐Nilssen²,

Erikstad³

et al. 2015

Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser.

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Current and future climate alterations might impact ecological processes like timing of breeding. We used multivariate linear models to assess the importance of food availability and climate on timing of breeding and hatching brood size of European shags Phalacrocorax aristotelis in 2 colonies, Sklinna (65° N) and Røst (67° N), in the Norwegian Sea over 21 yr (1989 to 2009). Predictor variables were ICES abundance estimates of young saithe Pollachius virens, the staple food of shags in these colonies, the previous winter's North Atlantic Oscillation index (wNAO), and sea surface and air temperatures. Annual population size was included to control for density-dependent effects. The best model for hatching date explained 15% (Sklinna) and 70% (Røst) of the variation and showed that shags bred earlier when 1 yr old saithe were more abundant. The model for Røst also included 2 yr old saithe and wNAO. The best model for hatching brood size explained 40% (Sklinna) and 48% (Røst) and included a positive effect of population size at both sites. The model for Røst also included a positive effect of 1 yr old saithe. Our study demonstrates that abundance of 1 yr old saithe is a key factor for the breeding performance of shags in both colonies, whereas the climate variables were of less importance. Delayed breeding and low brood size were not associated with a high population of breeders, indicating breeding performance was density-independent and that the positive relationship between breeding numbers and saithe abundance mainly reflected variation in non-breeding among established breeders.

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“…Predicting the effects of climate variability on and through the different trophic levels is a major challenge, and one that increases in complexity at successively higher levels of the food web (Myksvoll et al 2013). Seabirds are typically at the top of the marine food web and are the most numerous and visible of marine top predators.…”

Section: Seabirdsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Many seabirds are at the top of the food chain (see also Sect. 8.5) and it is important to understand which pathways climate signals follow through the food web to influence the different seabird life-history traits (Sandvik et al 2012;Myksvoll et al 2013). Aebischer et al (1990) reported clear similarities between trends in long-term data series of westerly weather and at four trophic levels in the North Sea: phytoplankton, zooplankton, herring, and black-legged kittiwakes, but the mechanisms behind the similarity were unclear.…”

Section: Examples Of Climate Impacts Across Trophic Levelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Environmental Impacts—Marine Ecosystems

Brander

Ottersen

Bakker

et al. 2016

North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment

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This chapter presents a review of what is known about the impacts of climate change on the biota (plankton, benthos, fish, seabirds and marine mammals) of the North Sea. Examples show how the changing North Sea environment is affecting biological processes and organisation at all scales, including the physiology, reproduction, growth, survival, behaviour and transport of individuals; the distribution, dynamics and evolution of populations; and the trophic structure and coupling of ecosystems. These complex responses can be detected because there are detailed long-term biological and environmental records for the North Sea; written records go back 500 years and archaeological records many thousands of years. The information presented here shows that the composition and productivity of the North Sea marine ecosystem is clearly affected by climate change and that this will have consequences for sustainable levels of harvesting and other ecosystem services in the future. Multi-variate ocean climate indicators that can be used to monitor and warn of changes in composition and productivity are now being developed for the North Sea.

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Climate-Driven Ichthyoplankton Drift Model Predicts Growth of Top Predator Young

Cited by 15 publications

References 44 publications

The stress hormone corticosterone in a marine top predator reflects short‐term changes in food availability

The stress hormone corticosterone in a marine top predator reflects short‐term changes in food availability

Forage fish abundance is a predictor of timing of breeding and hatching brood size in a coastal seabird

Environmental Impacts—Marine Ecosystems

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