Climate change would lead to a sharp acceleration of Central African forests dynamics by the end of the century

Abstract

Impacts of climate change on the future dynamics of Central African forests are still largely unknown, despite the acuteness of the expected climate changes and the extent of these forests. The high diversity of species and the potentially equivalent diversity of responses to climate modifications are major difficulties encountered when using predictive models to evaluate these impacts. In this study, we applied a mixture of inhomogeneous matrix models to a long-term experimental site located in M'Baïki forests, in the Central African Republic. This model allows the clustering of tree species into processesbased groups while simultaneously selecting explanatory climate and stand variables at the group-level. Using downscaled outputs of 10general circulation models (GCM), we projected the future forest dynamics up to the end of the century, under constant climate and Representative Concentration Pathways4.5 and8.5. Through comparative analyses across GCM versions, we identified tree species meta-groups, which are more adapted than ecological guilds to describe the diversity of tree species dynamics and their responses to climate change. Projections under constant climate were consistent with a forest ageing phenomenon, with a slowdown in tree growth and a reduction of the relative abundance of short-lived pioneers. Projections under climate change showed a general increase in growth, mortality and recruitment. This acceleration in forest dynamics led to a strong natural thinning effect, with different magnitudes across species. These differences caused a compositional shift in favour of long-lived pioneers, at the detriment of shade-bearers. Consistent with other field studies and projections, our results show the importance of elucidating the diversity of tree species responses when considering the general sensitivity of Central African forests dynamics to climate change.

Unveiling African rainforest composition and vulnerability to global change

“…2). Long-lived pioneers, typical of these human-impacted forests, are also expected to be favored by a possible acceleration in forest dynamics induced by global change 37,38 .…”

Tree growth and mortality of 42 timber species in central Africa

“…These are mostly tree species, forest types, regions, and occasionally tree size and competition indices. Tree growth and mortality can be estimated per species or species group (e.g., Chao et al, 2008;Claeys et al, 2019;Gourlet-Fleury et al, 2005;Hérault et al, 2011), forest type or region. These estimates are then used to calibrate models of forest dynamics and to simulate the development of forests of known structure and composition (Claeys et al, 2019;Picard et al, 2009).…”

Handling the heat – photosynthetic thermal stress in tropical trees

“…Already, increasing growth temperatures ( T g ) have been linked to greater tree mortality and reduced woody productivity in the tropics (e.g. Toomey et al ., 2011; Aleixo et al ., 2019; Claeys et al ., 2019; Sullivan et al ., 2020). Warming also is an important driver of compositional changes towards greater dominance by warm‐adapted species in high‐elevation tropical forests (Duque et al ., 2015; Fadrique et al ., 2018).…”