Climate Change Will Re-draw the Map for Marine Megafauna and the People Who Depend on Them

Abstract

Climate change is expected to dramatically alter the distribution of many marine megafauna, impacting the people and economies that depend upon them. We build on the recent literature by developing a framework to describe the effects these changes will have on marine megafauna. With the goal to assist policymakers and grass roots organizers, we identify three illustrative pathways by which climate change drives these range shifts: (1) effects on habitat and shelter, (2) impacts on reproduction and disease, and (3) changing distribution of sources of food. We examine non-climate factors that may constrain or enable megafauna to adapt, creating winners and losers both for the species and the people dependent upon them. Finally, we comment on what management strategies exist at international and local scales that could help mitigate these impacts of climate change so that we, as a global community, can ensure that marine megafauna and people can best co-exist in a changing world.

Habitat model forecasts suggest potential redistribution of marine predators in the southern Indian Ocean

“…They exploit biophysical features and food at various spatial and temporal scales. Consequently, they are frequently touted as "ecosystem sentinels" (Hazen et al, 2019), but this similarly makes them vulnerable to the effects of climate change (Grose et al, 2020;Hobday et al, 2013Hobday et al, , 2015Orgeret et al, 2021). While covariates obtained from eight IPCC-class climate models.…”

North Pacific warming shifts the juvenile range of a marine apex predator

“…however, species typically respond more strongly to extremes than gradual changes in mean conditions 53 . In reality, both are occurring simultaneously, there is both a synoptic increase in mean temperatures coinciding with anomalously warm and extreme events 2,54,55 . Marine heatwaves like the 2014-2016 event in the North Pacific are prolonged, more frequent, and made more intense with anthropogenic climate change 55 .…”

“…Marine ecosystems are exhibiting major ecological realignments in response to climate change 1,2 . Even though all species and taxa are influenced 3 , it has been argued that prioritizing attention to marine megafauna may help increase public concern and engagement to combat climate change 1,4 .…”

“…Record-high sea surface temperature (SST) was observed in the area between Point Conception (34.4° N, 120.5° W) and San Miguel Island OPEN 1 Monterey Bay Aquarium, Monterey, CA 93940, USA. 2 Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA. 3 Department of Biological Sciences, California State University Long Beach, Long Beach, CA 90815, USA.…”

Tick and tick-borne disease circulation in a changing marine ecosystem.

“…However, some species will not have this opportunity and will need to adapt to a warmer world. Given the 'slow pace' of life of seabirds and the relative speed of current changes, many of these species will likely be driven to extinction, along with their parasites and pathogens (Grose et al, 2020).…”