Climate change vulnerability of terrestrial vertebrates in a major refuge and dispersal corridor in North America

Zhu, Gengping; Papeş, Monica; Armsworth, Paul R.; Giam, Xingli

doi:10.1111/ddi.13528

Cited by 12 publications

(6 citation statements)

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“…Second, our models predicted threat in both taxon groups for northern-ranged, likely cold-adapted species, and relative security for southernranged, likely warmer-adapted species. Montane habitats harbor a high proportion of total, rare, and threatened species (Körner, 2004) and the Appalachians are no exception (Jenkins, Van Houtan, glacial periods (Pickering, Kays, Meier, Andrew, & Yatskievych, 2003) that face increasing threats from climate warming (La Sorte & Jetz, 2010;Zhu, Papeş, Armsworth, & Giam, 2022). It is thus expected that our predictions would also highlight montane regions of Maryland as potential conservation hotspots.…”

Section: Predicted Conservation Needs Reflects Biogeographic Trendsmentioning

confidence: 85%

“…Montane habitats harbor a high proportion of total, rare, and threatened species (Körner, 2004) and the Appalachians are no exception (Jenkins, Van Houtan, Pimm, & Sexton, 2015). The Appalachian Mountains are home to species considered relicts from glacial periods (Pickering, Kays, Meier, Andrew, & Yatskievych, 2003) that face increasing threats from climate warming (La Sorte & Jetz, 2010; Zhu, Papeş, Armsworth, & Giam, 2022). It is thus expected that our predictions would also highlight montane regions of Maryland as potential conservation hotspots.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Global conservation prioritization approach provides credible results at a regional scale

Roswell,

Espíndola

2023

Preprint

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Aim: Conservationists and managers must direct resources and enact measures to protect species, despite uncertainty about their present statuses. One approach to covering the data gap is borrowing information from data-rich species or populations to guide decisions about data-poor ones, via machine learning. Recent efforts demonstrated proof-of-concept at the global scale, leaving unclear whether similar approaches are feasible at the local and regional scales at which conservation actions most typically occur. To address this gap, we tested a global-scale predictive approach at a regional scale, using two groups of taxa. Location: Maryland, USA. Taxa: Vascular land plants and lepidopterans. Methods: Using publicly available occurrence and biogeographic data, we trained random forest classifiers to predict the state-level conservation status of species in each of the two focal taxa. We assessed model performance with cross-validation, and explored trends in the predictions. Results: Our models had strong discriminatory ability, accurately predicting status for species with existing status assessments. They predict that the northwestern part of Maryland, USA, which overlaps the Appalachian Mountains, harbors a higher concentration of unassessed, but threatened plants and lepidopterans. Our predictions track known biogeographic patterns, and unassessed species predicted as most likely threatened in Maryland were often recognized as also needing conservation in nearby jurisdictions, providing external validation to our results. Main Conclusions: We demonstrate that a modelling approach developed for global analysis can be downscaled and credible when applied at a regional scale that is smaller than typical species ranges. We identified select unassessed plant and lepidopteran species, and the western, montane region of Maryland as priority targets for additional monitoring, assessment, and conservation. By rapidly aggregating disparate data and integrating information across taxa, models like those we used can complement traditional assessment tools and assist in prioritization for formal assessments, as well as protection.

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Section: Predicted Conservation Needs Reflects Biogeographic Trendsmentioning

confidence: 85%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global conservation prioritization approach provides credible results at a regional scale

Roswell,

Espíndola

2023

Preprint

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“…This scenario seems more probable given the age of synbranchid lineages, relative to more recent African arrivals like Mastacembelidae (Figure 2). The salinity tolerance, air‐breathing ability, and fossoriality of swamp eels could make them capable rafters in large aquatic debris like tree trunks (Houle, 1998).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The fossil record indicates that channids were found as far north and west as southern Germany during the middle Miocene, coincident with the presence of other African freshwater fishes in southern France (Gaudant, 2015;Gaudant & Reichenbacher, 1998) 2). The salinity tolerance, air-breathing ability, and fossoriality of swamp eels could make them capable rafters in large aquatic debris like tree trunks (Houle, 1998).…”

Section: Timeline For the Origin Of Synbranchiformes And Implications...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Dispersal sweepstakes: Biotic interchange propelled air‐breathing fishes across the globe

Harrington,

Kolmann,

Day

et al. 2023

Journal of Biogeography

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AimBiotic interchanges between Africa, India, and Eurasia are central to explaining the present‐day distribution and diversity of freshwater organisms across these landmasses. Synbranchiformes is a diverse and species‐rich clade of freshwater acanthomorph fishes found on all southern continents except Antarctica, and include eel‐ and perch‐like, air‐breathing and non‐air‐breathing fishes. Lacking a comprehensive and resolved phylogeny of the entire clade, contemporary interpretations of synbranchiform biogeography invoke scenarios as disparate as Gondwanan vicariance and pan‐global rafting to explain their modern‐day distribution. Here, we study their biogeographic history of continental dispersal events and test whether these are associated with increases in lineage diversification.LocationAsia, India, Africa freshwater habitats.TaxonSynbranchiformes (gouramis, snakeheads, swamp eels, and relatives).MethodsWe used nearly 1000 ultra‐conserved elements (UCEs) and Sanger‐sequenced genes to infer a phylogeny with representatives of all major synbranchiform lineages and nearly two‐thirds of its known species diversity. Incorporating fossil calibrations, we inferred a time‐calibrated phylogeny to which we apply Bayesian methods of ancestral area reconstruction and test for diversification rate shifts.ResultsAnalyses of UCE data provide a resolved phylogeny for major synbranchiform lineages. Divergence times support a most recent common ancestor of the entire clade approximately 79.2 million years ago. We infer significant increases in lineage diversification in both the spiny eels (Mastacembelidae) and the genus Betta (Osphronemidae).Main ConclusionsOur results reject the hypothesis of Gondwanan vicariance explaining synbranchiform biogeography. Instead, our analyses reconstruct a southeast Asian origin of the entire clade and independent dispersal events to other continents by snakeheads, anabantids, and spiny eels, with no signal of elevated lineage diversification occurring after these invasions. Higher lineage diversification rates in spiny eels pre‐date their arrival to Africa, while the high diversification rates observed in Betta were initiated prior to the flooding of insular Sundaland in southeast Asia.

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“…Habitat selection directly affects the survival rate of wildlife, thus also ultimately affecting population persistence [3]. However, global climate change and other factors impose direct or indirect impacts on the wildlife habitat environment, causing changes in population size [4] and distribution ranges [5][6][7] and even lead to extinction [8]. The average global temperature has increased by approximately 0.74 • C over the last century [9], and the fifth assessment report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change proposed that the global climate will continue to be warm [10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Habitat Selection: Autumn and Winter Behavioral Preferences of Water Deer (Hydropotes inermis) in Northeast China

Sun

Chen

et al. 2023

Sustainability

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The wild water deer (Hydropotes inermis) population has declined rapidly over recent decades and has reached an endangered status in China. Therefore, it is important to understand their habitat selection to effectively protect both existing and emerging populations. This paper used the data of 11 habitat factors in Baishan Musk Deer National Nature Reserve in the autumn and winter from 2018 to 2019 to conduct a habitat selection study of water deer by resource selection function analysis. The results indicated that in both the autumn and winter, water deer preferred grasslands at sunny and middle slopes, dominated by Artemisia carvifolia and A. argyi, respectively. In addition, the resource selection function showed that the height of dominant herbage, hiding cover, distance from water, and distance to human settlements greatly contribute to the habitat selection of water deer in the cold season. The correct prediction rate of the resource selection function model exceeded 80%, highlighting its suitability for predicting the habitat selection of water deer. The outcomes of this study provide an effective scientific basis for the conservation and restoration of water deer, and valuable enlightenment for implementing a sustainable development strategy in northeast China.

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Climate change vulnerability of terrestrial vertebrates in a major refuge and dispersal corridor in North America

Abstract: This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Cited by 12 publications

References 50 publications

Global conservation prioritization approach provides credible results at a regional scale

Global conservation prioritization approach provides credible results at a regional scale

Dispersal sweepstakes: Biotic interchange propelled air‐breathing fishes across the globe

Habitat Selection: Autumn and Winter Behavioral Preferences of Water Deer (Hydropotes inermis) in Northeast China

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