Climate change vulnerability assessment for the Chugach National Forest and the Kenai Peninsula

Hayward, Gregory H.; Colt, Steve; McTeague, Monica L.; Hollingsworth, Teresa N.

doi:10.2737/pnw-gtr-950

Cited by 10 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 115 publications

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“…Rising temperature has affected the Kenai Peninsula in numerous ways (Hayward et al, 2017) and might have had direct effects on these two paleoenvironmental indicators. For example, the timing of ice-out strongly depends on air temperature throughout Alaska (Arp et al, 2013).…”

Section: Deglacial and Holocene Landscape Vegetation And Hydroclimati...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, this decrease in δ 18 O diatom could be driven in part by rising air temperature and the resulting effect on δ P (Dansgaard, 1964), or might reflect indirect effects of rising temperature, such as an increased contribution of glacially derived groundwater, or an increase in the relative contribution of winter precipitation. Rising temperature has caused glaciers to retreat rapidly in the nearby Kenai Mountains (Hayward et al, 2017), potentially resulting in an increased relative proportion of glacial meltwater in the surficial groundwater that might feed Kelly Lake (e.g., Liljedahl et al, 2017). Rising temperatures have also caused a reduction in the extent and annual duration of sea ice in Cook Inlet (NSIDC, 2018), potentially leading to an increased contribution of winter season precipitation with low δ P values.…”

Section: Deglacial and Holocene Landscape Vegetation And Hydroclimati...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Late Pleistocene and Holocene paleoenvironmental history of Alaska's Kenai Peninsula (Fig. 1) has long been of interest to geologists and climate scientists (e.g., Cooper, 1942;Karlstrom, 1964) due to the region's multi-phased deglaciation (Reger et al, 2007), spatially and temporally complex transition from tundra to mixed coastal forest (Anderson et al, 2017), and sensitivity to synoptic patterns of ocean and atmospheric variability (Bailey et al, 2019) and modern climate change (Hayward et al, 2017). In recent decades, the development of increasingly sophisticated methods for studying past environments has enhanced our ability to interpret paleoclimate datasets from southern Alaska.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Reconstructing postglacial hydrologic and environmental change in the eastern Kenai Peninsula lowlands using proxy data and mass balance modeling

et al. 2022

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Despite extensive paleoenvironmental research on the postglacial history of the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska, uncertainties remain regarding the region's deglaciation, vegetation development, and past hydroclimate. To elucidate this complex environmental history, we present new proxy datasets from Hidden and Kelly lakes, located in the eastern Kenai lowlands at the foot of the Kenai Mountains, including sedimentological properties (magnetic susceptibility, organic matter, grain size, and biogenic silica), pollen and macrofossils, diatom assemblages, and diatom oxygen isotopes. We use a simple hydrologic and isotope mass balance model to constrain interpretations of the diatom oxygen isotope data. Results reveal that glacier ice retreated from Hidden Lake's headwaters by ca. 13.1 cal ka BP, and that groundwater was an important component of Kelly Lake's hydrologic budget in the Early Holocene. As the forest developed and the climate became wetter in the Middle to Late Holocene, Kelly Lake reached or exceeded its modern level. In the last ca. 75 years, rising temperature caused rapid changes in biogenic silica content and diatom oxygen isotope values. Our findings demonstrate the utility of mass balance modeling to constrain interpretations of paleolimnologic oxygen isotope data, and that groundwater can exert a strong influence on lake water isotopes, potentially confounding interpretations of regional climate.

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Section: Deglacial and Holocene Landscape Vegetation And Hydroclimati...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Deglacial and Holocene Landscape Vegetation And Hydroclimati...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Reconstructing postglacial hydrologic and environmental change in the eastern Kenai Peninsula lowlands using proxy data and mass balance modeling

et al. 2022

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“…The Kenai Mountains create a rain shadow over the Kenai Lowland. even more prevalent in the Kenai Mountains north of the Harding Icefield and west of the Sargent Icefield extending into Turnagain Arm (Hollingsworth et al 2017).…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 98%

The dynamics of a changing Lutz spruce (Picea × lutzii) hybrid zone on the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska

et al. 2023

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We investigated the genetic makeup of Lutz spruce, a natural hybrid between white and Sitka spruce on the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska. Microsatellites indicate 72% of individuals sampled had predominantly white spruce ancestry whereas 14% had predominantly Sitka spruce ancestry; some individuals classified as white spruce had Sitka spruce plastid genotypes. As Picea mitochondria are maternally inherited and plastids are paternally inherited, it appears that white spruce was the ancestral seed parent of nearly all spruce on the peninsula, whereas Sitka spruce alleles originated from pollen. Pollen records show that white spruce colonized the western peninsula ~8,500 YBP from glacial refugium, whereas Sitka spruce arrived on the eastern peninsula ~4,000 YBP after migrating up the Pacific coast. Our data suggest that Sitka spruce migration onto the western peninsula may have occurred not via seed dispersal, but by long distance transport of wind-borne pollen and subsequent hybridization with established white spruce populations. Hybridization was an important mechanism that allowed Sitka spruce to expand the leading edge of its range in response to historical climate change. As the climate continues to warm, climate envelope modeling suggests Lutz spruce may ultimately displace white spruce on the western peninsula even as Sitka spruce is constrained to the eastern peninsula where it will continue to hybridize.

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Advanced Data Mining (Cloning) of Predicted Climate-Scapes and Their Variances Assessed with Machine Learning: An Example from Southern Alaska Shows Topographical Biases and Strong Differences

Huettmann

2018

Machine Learning for Ecology and Sustainable Natural Resource Management

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Climate change vulnerability assessment for the Chugach National Forest and the Kenai Peninsula

Cited by 10 publications

References 115 publications

Reconstructing postglacial hydrologic and environmental change in the eastern Kenai Peninsula lowlands using proxy data and mass balance modeling

Reconstructing postglacial hydrologic and environmental change in the eastern Kenai Peninsula lowlands using proxy data and mass balance modeling

The dynamics of a changing Lutz spruce (Picea × lutzii) hybrid zone on the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska

Advanced Data Mining (Cloning) of Predicted Climate-Scapes and Their Variances Assessed with Machine Learning: An Example from Southern Alaska Shows Topographical Biases and Strong Differences

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