Climate Change, Uncertainty, and Policy

Abstract

While the foundations of climate science and ethics are well established, fine-grained climate predictions, as well as policy-decisions, are beset with uncertainties. This chapter maps climate uncertainties and classifies them as to their ground, extent and location. A typology of uncertainty is presented, centered along the axes of scientific and moral uncertainty. This typology is illustrated with paradigmatic examples of uncertainty in climate science, climate ethics and climate economics. Subsequently, the chapter discusses the IPCC's preferred way of representing uncertainties and evaluates its strengths and weaknesses from a risk management perspective. Three general strategies for decision-makers to cope with climate uncertainty are outlined, the usefulness of which largely depends on whether or not decision-makers find themselves in a context of deep uncertainty. The chapter concludes by offering two recommendations to ease the work of policymakers, faced with the various uncertainties engrained in climate discourse.

Future value change: Identifying realistic possibilities and risks

“…A further commonality between anticipatory efforts in these domains is that both are couched in substantial uncertainty. Their sophistication notwithstanding, projections derived from climate models come along with various uncertainties (Hopster, 2022); for instance, measurement errors, the natural variability of the climate system, unknown external pressures on the climate system, the idealizations of simulation models and the potential aggrandizement of model biases through their merger in such ensembles as CMIP (e.g., Baumberger et al, 2017).…”