Climate Change to Exacerbate the Compounding of Heat Stress and Flooding

Abstract

<p>The role of climate change in exacerbating the impacts of natural hazards has been the focus of extensive interest. However, while the emphasis is generally on a single hazard (e.g., heat stress, extreme precipitation, floods, droughts), their compounding effects under climate change have been the subject of a growing number of studies. Among compound events, heat stress was recently found to be a precursor of summer flooding across the central United States. We show for the first time that heat stress can trigger floods across large areas of North and South America, southern Africa, Asia and eastern Australia. Moreover, using global climate models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we show that the compounding of heat stress and floods is projected to worsen under climate change with effects magnified as we move from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 1-2.6 to 5-8.5. Under future conditions, the compounding between heat stress and floods is projected to extend to Europe and Russia due to the increased warming. These results highlight the need towards improved preparation and mitigation measures that account for the compound nature of these two hazards, and how the compounding is expected to be exacerbated because of climate change.</p>