Climate change: The forecast for 2018 is cloudy with record heat

Tollefson, Jeff

doi:10.1038/499139a

Cited by 7 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…Several theories were proposed to explain this surface temperature “hiatus”. One of the first explanations put forth was that it is normal for warming rates to plateau occasionally ( Trenberth, 2015). Other factors that were extensively investigated included the increased volcanic activity and the high levels of air pollution in China during the hiatus period, since atmospheric particles reflect more of the Sun’s energy back into space ( Solomon et al , 2011).…”

Section: Unaccounted Heat In Climate Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Heat remains unaccounted for in thermal physiology and climate change research

Flouris

Kenny

2017

F1000Res

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In the aftermath of the Paris Agreement, there is a crucial need for scientists in both thermal physiology and climate change research to develop the integrated approaches necessary to evaluate the health, economic, technological, social, and cultural impacts of 1.5°C warming. Our aim was to explore the fidelity of remote temperature measurements for quantitatively identifying the continuous redistribution of heat within both the Earth and the human body. Not accounting for the regional distribution of warming and heat storage patterns can undermine the results of thermal physiology and climate change research. These concepts are discussed herein using two parallel examples: the so-called slowdown of the Earth’s surface temperature warming in the period 1998-2013; and the controversial results in thermal physiology, arising from relying heavily on core temperature measurements. In total, the concept of heat is of major importance for the integrity of systems, such as the Earth and human body. At present, our understanding about the interplay of key factors modulating the heat distribution on the surface of the Earth and in the human body remains incomplete. Identifying and accounting for the interconnections among these factors will be instrumental in improving the accuracy of both climate models and health guidelines.

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Section: Unaccounted Heat In Climate Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Heat remains unaccounted for in thermal physiology and climate change research

Flouris

Kenny

2017

F1000Res

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“…A recent analysis suggests that dynamical forecasts based on climate models perform clearly worse than empirical methods . It seems that genuinely useful climate forecasting on the multiannual to decadal timescale may be still some way away at this time . Thus it is clear that the models can currently only be relied upon for a broad picture of future climate changes.…”

Section: Interpretation and Evaluation Of The Ensemblementioning

confidence: 99%

Can we trust climate models?

Hargreaves

Annan

2014

WIREs Climate Change

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What are the predictions of climate models, should we believe them, and are they falsifiable? Probably the most iconic and influential result arising from climate models is the prediction that, dependent on the rate of increase of CO 2 emissions, global and annual mean temperature will rise by around 2-4 ∘ C over the 21st century. We argue that this result is indeed credible, as are the supplementary predictions that the land will on average warm by around 50% more than the oceans, high latitudes more than the tropics, and that the hydrological cycle will generally intensify. Beyond these and similar broad statements, however, we presently find little evidence of trustworthy predictions at fine spatial scale and annual to decadal timescale from climate models. How to cite this article:WIREs Clim Change 2014Change , 5:435-440. doi: 10.1002 INTRODUCTION C limate models are the primary tool by which we create knowledge about the future impact of human activities on the global climate system. Possibly the most iconic and influential result arising from climate models is the prediction that, dependent on the rate of increase of CO 2 emissions, global and annual mean temperature will (with high probability) rise by around 2-4 ∘ C over the 21st century (see Ref 1, Fig SPM.5). Supplementary predictions of a similar status are that the land will on average warm by around 50% more than the oceans, high latitudes more than the tropics, and nights more than days. Besides surface temperature changes, the hydrological cycle is expected to generally intensify by a few percentage points per degree Celsius of warming, and the stratosphere will cool. These results are broadly agreed upon by all global climate models (GCMs) which have contributed to the Climate Model * Correspondence to: jules@blueskiesresearch.org.uk Uncertainty Estimation Research Group, RIGC/JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan Conflict of interest: The authors have declared no conflicts of interest for this article.Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) experiments 2 over the past several decades, although the magnitudes of the expected changes remain somewhat uncertain. Many more detailed predictions can, in principle, be made, for example on a regional basis, but uncertainty tends to increase substantially as the spatial scale decreases. For example, even the sign of the change in precipitation is uncertain in many areas over the coming decades.But should we believe any or all of these predictions? And if so, which ones, and why? These are the fundamental questions which we hope to address in this article. We start by exploring the origins of the models and considering the nature of the knowledge that they impart. We overview the strengths and weaknesses of the models and then consider to what extent these models may be falsifiable or considered trustworthy. THE ORIGINS OF CLIMATE MODELSScientific models are simplifications of nature built to gain better understanding of how nature works. They are of course, trivially false in the sense that all models are approximations to ...

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