Climate change, species range shifts and dispersal corridors: an evaluation of spatial conservation models

Abstract

Summary The notion that conservation areas are static geographical units for biodiversity conservation should be revised when planning for climate‐change adaptation. Since species are expected to respond to climate change by shifting their distributions, conservation areas can lose the very same species that justified their designation. Methods exist to take into account the potential effects of climate on spatial priorities for conservation. One of such methods involves the identification of time‐ordered linkages between conservation areas (hereafter termed climate‐change corridors), thus enabling species tracking their suitable changing climates. We critically review and synthesise existing quantitative approaches for spatial conservation planning under climate change. We extend these approaches focusing on the identification of climate‐change corridors, using three alternative models that vary on the objective function (minimum cost or maximum benefit sought) and on the nature of conservation targets (area‐based or persistence probabilities). The three models for establishing climate‐change corridors are illustrated with a case study involving two species distributed across the Iberian Peninsula. The species were modelled in relation to climate‐change scenarios using ensembles of bioclimatic models and theoretical dispersal kernels. The corridors obtained are compared for their location, the temporal sequence of priorities, and the effectiveness with which solutions attain persistence and cost objectives. By clearly framing the climate‐change corridors problem as three alternative models and providing the corresponding mathematical descriptions and solving tools, we offer planners a wide spectrum of models that can be easily adapted to a variety of conservation goals and constraints.

A quantitative analysis on the effects of critical factors limiting the effectiveness of species conservation in future time

“…The scientific literature on conservation planning is prolific on spatial conservation models. However, few have been dedicatedly developed to integrate both the environmental and socioeconomic dynamics (but see, Alagador et al, ) and to provide researchers with an area scheduling plan depicting spatiotemporal conservation units in which species’ persistence is evaluated. In this regard, we used the concept of climate change corridors, CCCs (sensu Alagador, Cerdeira, & Araújo, ; originally introduced by Williams et al., and improved by Phillips, Williams, Midgley, & Aaron, ), to optimize future conservation decisions.…”

Tropical Protected Areas Under Increasing Threats from Climate Change and Deforestation

“…Solutions to protecting species from climate change are dependent on land use planning and management; for example, protected area network expansion, protecting climate refugia, and climate-change corridors [23][24][25][26]. Planning for PA expansion or corridors requires knowledge of both climate risks and deforestation risks to strategically invest in effective land use planning for habitat preservation or restoration.…”

Meeting species persistence targets under climate change: A spatially explicit conservation planning model

“…However, to our best knowledge only Alagador et al. () have explicitly integrated persistence targets in climate change‐concerned conservation plans (see Di Fonzo et al., and Di Marco et al., , for similar approaches in other contexts). Because persistence targets are not trivial to interpret as representational targets are, their definition is challenging.…”

“…In recent years, interest in the integration of adaptive responses of species to climate change in spatial conservation prioritization has grown. General purpose conservation planning software has been used for area prioritization (see Alagador, Cerdeira, & Araújo, 2016 for a review), and novel models have been specifically developed to address climate change concerns (Alagador et al, 2016;Jones, Watson, Possingham, & Klein, 2016). However, to our best knowledge only Alagador et al (2016) have explicitly integrated persistence targets in climate change-concerned conservation plans (see Di Fonzo et al, 2016 andDi Marco et al, 2016, for similar approaches in other contexts).…”