Climate change, sea level rise and rice: global market implications

Chen, Chi‐Chung; McCarl, Bruce A.; Chang, Ching‐Cheng

doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0074-0

Cited by 67 publications

(44 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…With population growth that was predicated to increase by 25, 217, and 6 million in 2030 in Bangladesh, India, and Myanmar, respectively [6], and with the dietary improvement, total grain demand will continue to increase in the coming decades, especially in Bangladesh and India. With global warming, the frequency and intensity of droughts and floods are predicted to increase, and the rising sea level might cause inundation of the productive lands, resulting in adverse impacts on the food production in the three countries [64][65][66][67].…”

Section: Policy Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Comparative Analysis on Food Security in Bangladesh, India and Myanmar

Chen

2018

Sustainability

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Abstract:In 2013, China proposed the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor initiatives to enhance the economic cooperation between Bangladesh, India, and Myanmar. To serve the priority setting of agricultural cooperation in the initiatives, an analysis is necessary to understand the food security situation and its key influencing factors in the three countries. For this purpose, this study applied a food security index (FSI) to measure the food security level at state scale and analyze its changes in the three countries during 1990-2013. Further, a factor decomposition method was used to quantify the contribution of major factors to the FSI changes. The results showed that the food demand was generally secured in Myanmar and India during 1990-2013 but in shortage by around 10% in most years before 2008 in Bangladesh. The annual FSI values showed a rather obvious periodic variation and a slightly increasing trend during the whole period. Although the grain production in the three countries increased significantly, the FSI was not accordingly improved, as a result of the simultaneous increase of grain consumption. In Bangladesh and India, the grain production increase was mainly driven by the improvement of crop yield, while the grain consumption increase was mainly caused by the population growth. In Myanmar, the production increase was largely caused by the expansion of cropping area, and the consumption growth was mainly due to the increased grain requirement per capita. To meet the increasing food demand in the future, it is essential to improve the irrigation and drainage systems and crop management to increase the land use efficiency and crop yield. In addition, the adaptation of appropriate policy for family planning could be important to slow down the quick population growth and thus the food demand.

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Section: Policy Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Comparative Analysis on Food Security in Bangladesh, India and Myanmar

Chen

2018

Sustainability

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“…High-yield variability under climate change, in particular, will also increase the already high risk of cultivating upland rice, which will likely accelerate the current trend toward reducing upland rice cropped areas (Ferreira, 2010;Marcolan et al, 2008;Pinheiro, Castro, & Guimarães, 2006). Urban centers in Central Brazil can also be impacted due to instability in the flow of rice to the markets and in market prices (Chen, McCarl, & Chang, 2012;Nelson et al, 2010).…”

Section: Shifted Growing Conditions and Breeding Priorities For Uplmentioning

confidence: 99%

Breeding implications of drought stress under future climate for upland rice in Brazil

Ramírez-Villegas

Heinemann

Castro

et al. 2018

Global Change Biology

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Rice is the most important food crop in the developing world. For rice production systems to address the challenges of increasing demand and climate change, potential and on-farm yield increases must be increased. Breeding is one of the main strategies toward such aim. Here, we hypothesize that climatic and atmospheric changes for the upland rice growing period in central Brazil are likely to alter environment groupings and drought stress patterns by 2050, leading to changing breeding targets during the 21st century. As a result of changes in drought stress frequency and intensity, we found reductions in productivity in the range of 200-600 kg/ha (up to 20%) and reductions in yield stability throughout virtually the entire upland rice growing area (except for the southeast). In the face of these changes, our crop simulation analysis suggests that the current strategy of the breeding program, which aims at achieving wide adaptation, should be adjusted. Based on the results for current and future climates, a weighted selection strategy for the three environmental groups that characterize the region is suggested. For the highly favorable environment (HFE, 36%-41% growing area, depending on RCP), selection should be done under both stress-free and terminal stress conditions; for the favorable environment (FE, 27%-40%), selection should aim at testing under reproductive and terminal stress, and for the least favorable environment (LFE, 23%-27%), selection should be conducted for response to reproductive stress only and for the joint occurrence of reproductive and terminal stress. Even though there are differences in timing, it is noteworthy that stress levels are similar across environments, with 40%-60% of crop water demand unsatisfied. Efficient crop improvement targeted toward adaptive traits for drought tolerance will enhance upland rice crop system resilience under climate change.

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“…Dasgupta et al (2009) show substantial land loss in Southeast Asia, East Asia, South Asia, and the Southeast US. Chen et al (2011) estimate the economic impacts of sea level rise in terms of rice production showing substantial regional effects on the rice market.…”

Section: Sea Level Induced Inundationmentioning

confidence: 99%