Climate change scenarios over Southeast Asia

Sentian, Justin; Payus, Carolyn; Herman, Franky; Kong, Vivian Wan Yee

doi:10.30852/sb.2022.1927

Cited by 10 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 64 publications

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“…Access to clean drinking water and adequate sanitation facilities emerged as critical factors in preventing Hepatitis E. Regions with inadequate infrastructure, particularly in water and sanitation, faced an elevated risk due to contaminated water sources. Climate-related events, such as heavy rainfall and ooding, signi cantly impacted waterborne diseases like Hepatitis E. The increasing frequency and severity of such events emphasized the importance of considering climate-related factors in assessing prevalence trends (32). Consumption of contaminated or undercooked meat, particularly pork, was identi ed as a source of Hepatitis E transmission.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Systematic review and meta-analysis of Hepatitis E prevalence in Southeast Asia: A comprehensive assessment of epidemiological patterns

Mirzaev,

Ouoba,

et al. 2023

Preprint

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The burden of hepatitis E in Southeast Asia is substantial, influenced by its distinct socio-economic and environmental factors, as well as variations in healthcare systems. The aim of this study was to assess the pooled prevalence of hepatitis E across countries within the Southeast Asian region by the UN division. A comprehensive systematic database search was conducted across PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus databases, supplemented by a manual search in Google Scholar. Studies that presented seroprevalence data of hepatitis E virus (HEV) in Southeast Asian nations were eligible for inclusion, and a meta-analysis was subsequently conducted. The assessment of bias risk was undertaken using the Joanna Briggs Institute checklist. The ensuing meta-analysis provides an evaluation of 66 chosen studies from a pool of 1641, encompassing a total cohort of 44,850 individuals from Southeast Asian countries. The pooled prevalence of anti-HEV IgG within Southeast Asian countries was determined to be 21.03%. Stratification of the study population based on the risk of HEV acquisition into two cohorts—high-risk and low-risk groups—yielded a pooled anti-HEV IgG prevalence of 28.9%, with an accompanying IgM prevalence of 4.42% in the former group, while the latter group exhibited figures of 17.86% and 3.15%, respectively. A temporal analysis, segmented into three distinct decades (1987–1999, 2000–2010, 2011–2023), indicated an uprising trend in both IgG and IgM prevalence over the specified time spans. These findings contribute to a better understanding of HEV prevalence across populations and time periods in Southeast Asia, shedding light on important public health implications and suggesting directions for further research and intervention strategies.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Systematic review and meta-analysis of Hepatitis E prevalence in Southeast Asia: A comprehensive assessment of epidemiological patterns

Mirzaev,

Ouoba,

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…This study used Weather Research Forecast version 3.9.1.1 (WRF V 3.9.1.1) as a regional climate modelling system. The domain, simulations and parameterization of the WRF model used under this study is similar to the study of [40]. The simulation was carried out in one nested horizontal domain (Figure 2.1).…”

Section: Wrf Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Isoprene Emission under Climate Change Scenario in Southeast Asia

Herman¹,

Sentian²,

Kong³

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Biogenic emission can have significant impact on atmospheric chemistry. Isoprene (C5H8) is known as the most predominant volatile organic compound and its emission is highly dependent on temperature and light (solar radiation). This study aims to investigate future changes of isoprene emission under climate change scenario. The Southeast Asia (SEA) region is home to 15% of the world’s tropical forest, and the biogenic emission from this region can have significant effect on the global climate chemistry. Three climate change scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) were used to drive climate change simulation in 2013 (baseline), 2030 (near-future), 2050 (mid-century), 2070 (post-mid) and 2100 (end of century) using the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF v3.9.1) model. The Model Emission of Gases and Aerosol from Nature (MEGAN v2.1) was then used to simulate isoprene fluxes using climate output datasets from the WRF model. This study highlights that the projected mean surface temperature and PAR (photosynthetic active radiation) were higher in July than in January. Towards the end of the century, the overall surface temperature and PAR over the SEA region is expected to increase by 0.9℃ - 2.1℃, and 7.6 W m-2 – 12 W m-2 under all RCPs. The all-time high isoprene emitters are Borneo and Papua Island. Meanwhile, the projected increment of isoprene emission over this region is between 10 – 14%, 15-30% and 29 – 53% for RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, respectively. Our result concludes that the total isoprene emission was higher during July, consistent with the high surface temperature and PAR. The results also agreed with the hypothesis of high isoprene emission over the region that has oil palm plantation. Thus, challenges in dealing with future emissions of isoprene in SEA are closely tied to future climate policies to limit the warming of the atmosphere over this region and the land-use conversion of palm oil plantations.

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“…Climate models are developed using well-established earth physical principles ( 17) and applying those principles allows the modelling of past, current and future climates ( 17,18 ). The IPCC global model has been widely recognised and used for a variety of climate change modelling ( [19][20][21][22] ). It provides a broad picture of future climate change scenarios on a worldwide scale.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flood modelling shows increased impacts from flooding in southern Thailand as a result of climate change

Curoy

Ward

Wang

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Flooding is one of the most commonly occurring natural disasters across the world. Its occurrence is predicted to become more frequent with climate change and associated rainfall increases. This study used a bespoke software Flowroute-i, developed by Ambiental, UK specialists in flood risk assessment and modelling, utlising meteorological and spatial data to produce flood maps. The study was conducted in 6 catchments in southern Thailand modelling flood depth and extent associated with high rainfall events with return periods of 20, 50 and 100 years. Both a present-day scenario and a future scenario (RCP 6.0) with projections to 2100 were modelled. The models suggest that there could be an increase of up to 37.5% in flood extent, particularly in the middle of the catchment. This was particularly evident on the eastern side of the Thai peninsula, Nakhon Si Thammarat, in part as a result of the large flat coastal plain adjacent to steep basin geomorphology. These results should allow appropriate agencies to initiate flood mitigation measures, as the impacts of present-day flood events in the studied areas have been noted to be particularly devastating to life, livelihoods, and infrastructure and this looks set to worsen in a warming world.

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Climate change scenarios over Southeast Asia

Cited by 10 publications

References 64 publications

Systematic review and meta-analysis of Hepatitis E prevalence in Southeast Asia: A comprehensive assessment of epidemiological patterns

Systematic review and meta-analysis of Hepatitis E prevalence in Southeast Asia: A comprehensive assessment of epidemiological patterns

Isoprene Emission under Climate Change Scenario in Southeast Asia

Flood modelling shows increased impacts from flooding in southern Thailand as a result of climate change

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