Climate change scenarios for the California region

Cayan, Daniel R.; Maurer, Edwin P.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Tyree, Mary; Hayhoe, Katharine

doi:10.1007/s10584-007-9377-6

Cited by 538 publications

(541 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…While agricultural water extent was less sensitive to fluctuations in water availability, it will be affected by climate change and emerging water policy. Precipitation in the Sierra Nevada is projected to decrease, particularly the amount and duration of the winter snowpack (Cayan et al, 2008), which is the main source of surface water in warmer, drier spring and summer months. In 2015, the state water project delivered just one-fifth of the water requested by users and a zero allocation was issued by the federal water project ("Watering California 's Farms", 2015).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Much of California's water is supplied by the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada mountains, which is projected to decrease in average volume and duration in the future (Cayan, 1996;Cayan et al, 2008). The Sacramento Valley receives an annual average of 890 mm of precipitation, with the majority of accumulation from late fall through early spring (NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 2016); however this varies with climate cycles.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Three decades of Landsat-derived spring surface water dynamics in an agricultural wetland mosaic; Implications for migratory shorebirds

Schaffer‐Smith

Swenson

Barbaree

et al. 2017

Remote Sensing of Environment

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Satellite measurements of surface water offer promise for understanding wetland habitat availability at broad spatial and temporal scales; reliable habitat is crucial for the persistence of migratory shorebirds that depend on wetland networks. We analyzed water extent dynamics within wetland habitats at a globally important shorebird stopover site for a 1983-2015 Landsat time series, and evaluated the effect of climate on water extent. A range of methods can detect open water from imagery, including supervised classification approaches and thresholds for spectral bands and indices. Thresholds provide a time advantage; however, there is no universally superior index, nor single best threshold for all instances. We used random forest to model the presence or absence of water from >6200 reference pixels, and derived an optimal water probability threshold for our study area using receiver operating characteristic curves. An optimized mid-infrared (1.5-1.7 μm) threshold identified open water in the Sacramento Valley of California at 30-m resolution with an average of 90% producer's accuracy, comparable to approaches that require more intensive user input. SLC-off Landsat 7 imagery was integrated by applying a customized interpolation that mapped water in missing data gaps with 99% user's accuracy. On average we detected open water on ~26000 ha (~3% of the study area) in early April at the peak of shorebird migration, while water extent increased five-fold after the migration rush. Over the last three decades, late March water extent declined by ~1300 ha per year, primarily due to changes in the extent and timing of agricultural flood-irrigation. Water within shorebird habitats was significantly associated with an index of water availability at the peak of migration. Our approach can be used to optimize thresholds for time series analysis and near-real-time mapping in other regions, and requires only marginally more time than generating a confusion matrix.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Three decades of Landsat-derived spring surface water dynamics in an agricultural wetland mosaic; Implications for migratory shorebirds

Schaffer‐Smith

Swenson

Barbaree

et al. 2017

Remote Sensing of Environment

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“…In essence, there are three major differences. First, Sahoo and Schladow (2008) used values of net changes in air temperature and precipitation of future 41 years based on the estimates reported by Cayan et al (2008) for northern California using GFDLpredicted temperature and precipitation changes during the twenty-first century for A2 emission scenario. Second, they used 10% net change in longwave radiation for the period 2005-2040, which is at the upper range value for the period 2000-2100.…”

Section: Lake Warming and Stability Changementioning

confidence: 99%

“…changes in streamflows, snowmelt timing) are most commonly examined to investigate the impact of climate change on water resources (e.g. Cayan et al 2008;Siliverstovs et al 2009;Zhang et al 2009). To relate lake warming trend with climate change, shifts in trends of air temperature, snowfall percent to total precipitations, and snow melt timing in the basin are examined.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of climate change on thermal properties of lakes and reservoirs, and possible implications

Sahoo

Schladow

Reuter

et al. 2010

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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Meteorologic-driven processes exert large and diverse impacts on lakes' internal heating, cooling, and mixing. Thus, continued global warming and climate change will affect lakes' thermal properties, dynamics, and ecosystem. The impact of climate change on Lake Tahoe (in the states of California and Nevada in the United States) is investigated here, as a case study of climate change effects on the physical processes occurring within a lake. In the Tahoe basin, air temperature data show upward trends and streamflow trends indicate earlier snowmelt. Precipitation in the basin is shifting from snow to rain, and the frequency of intense rainfall events is increasing. In-lake water temperature records of the past 38 years show that Lake Tahoe is warming at an average rate of 0.013°C/year. The future trends of weather variables, such as air temperature, precipitation, longwave radiation, downward shortwave radiation, and wind speed are estimated from predictions of three General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the period 2001-2100. Future trends of weather variables of each GCM are found to be different to those of the other GCMs. A series of simulation years into the future (2000-2040) is established using streamflows and associated loadings, and meteorologic data sets for the period 1994-2004. Future simulation years and trends of weather variables are selected so that: (1) future simulated warming trend would be consistent with the observed warming trend (0.013°C/year); and (2) future mixing pattern frequency would closely match with the historical mixing pattern frequency. Results of 40-year simulations show that the lake continues to become warmer and more stable, and mixing is reduced. Continued warming in the Tahoe has important implications for efforts towards managing biodiversity and maintaining clarity of the lake.

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“…In the U.S., climate change is projected to reduce California snow accumulation (Cayan et al 2008). Barnett and Pierce (2009) find that climate change makes current levels of Colorado River water deliveries unsustainable into the future.…”

Section: Water Supplymentioning

confidence: 99%

Land Use and Climate Change

McCarl

Attavanich

Musumba

et al. 2014

The Oxford Handbook of Land Economics

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Land use is majorly involved with climate change concerns and this chapter discusses and reviews the interrelationships between the vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation aspects of land use and climate change. We review a number of key studies on climate change issues regarding land productivity, land use and land management (LPLULM), identifying key findings, pointing out research needs, and raising economic/policy questions to ponder.Overall, this chapter goes beyond previous reviews and simultaneously treats the troika of vulnerability, mitigation and adaptation aspects of the issue, which will provide readers with a more comprehensive, multifaceted grasp of the spectrum of current issues regarding LPLULM and climate change.

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Climate change scenarios for the California region

Cited by 538 publications

References 40 publications

Three decades of Landsat-derived spring surface water dynamics in an agricultural wetland mosaic; Implications for migratory shorebirds

Three decades of Landsat-derived spring surface water dynamics in an agricultural wetland mosaic; Implications for migratory shorebirds

Effects of climate change on thermal properties of lakes and reservoirs, and possible implications

Land Use and Climate Change

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