Climate Change Reduces the Effectiveness of Myanmar’s Protected Area Network

Abstract

Myanmar is located in the Indo-Burma biodiversity hotspot, but lacks understanding of the bio-diversity hotspots and protected areas within its borders. Climate change affects the effective-ness of protected areas and the potential distribution range of species. Based on Myanmar's re-gional characteristics, endangered status, and representativeness, this paper selects species and identifies biodiversity hotspots using the MaxEnt model. We studied the biodiversity within the terrestrial protected area network in Myanmar, as well as the potential for cross-boundary range shifts among protected areas under different climate scenarios. Species populations outside My-anmar's protected area network may not be able to find suitable habitats in the future, further exacerbating climate-related extinction risks. Additionally, some protected areas in Myanmar may not be fully utilizing their biodiversity representation potential, and with scientific spatial planning, Myanmar's protected areas could support a large number of species. In the context of continued warming, identifying new protected areas that encompass the future and current climatic niches of protected areas can increase the capacity for sustained biodiversity conservation. We hope that this study provides insights for increasing the effectiveness of Myanmar's protect-ed area network and emphasizes the urgency of coordinated protection of protected areas and biodiversity hotspots.