Climate change projections over three metropolitan regions in Southeast Brazil using the non-hydrostatic Eta regional climate model at 5-km resolution

Lyra, André; Tavares, Priscila; Chou, Sin Chan; Sueiro, Gustavo; Dereczynski, Claudine Pereira; Sondermann, Marcely; Silva, Adán; Marengo, José A.; Giarolla, Angélica

doi:10.1007/s00704-017-2067-z

Cited by 114 publications

(105 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…Currently, many RCMs have a nonhydrostatic core due to the considerable computational resources and the need to solve local processes with fine horizontal resolution (e.g., see Refs. and ).…”

Section: Basics Of Rcmsmentioning

confidence: 96%

The state of the art and fundamental aspects of regional climate modeling in South America

Ambrizzi

Reboita

Rocha

et al. 2018

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences

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Regional climate models have been used since 1989 in order to improve climate simulation in regions where mesoscale forcings modulate the regional climate. These models are driven by time-dependent lateral boundary conditions from global climate models or reanalysis, and this process is called dynamical downscaling. Here, we review the evolution of regional climate modeling, as well as present the studies developed for South America.

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Section: Basics Of Rcmsmentioning

confidence: 96%

The state of the art and fundamental aspects of regional climate modeling in South America

Ambrizzi

Reboita

Rocha

et al. 2018

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences

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“…GEF represents a globalization of the regional Eta model (Mesinger, 1974(Mesinger, , 2000Janjić, 1984Janjić, , 1990Janjić, , 1994Mesinger et al, 1988Mesinger et al, , 2012Mesinger and Lobocki, 1991;Black, 1994;Chen et al, 1997;Chou et al, 2000Chou et al, , 2002Chou et al, , 2005Chou et al, , 2012Ek et al, 2003;Bustamante and Chou, 2009;Gomes and Chou, 2010;Pesquero et al, 2010;Doyle et al, 2013;de Andrade Campos et al, 2017;Lyra et al, 2017;Mesinger and Veljovic, 2017;Pilotto et al, 2017). The unique feature of the Eta model is a stepwise formulation of terrain, which was introduced with the idea to reduce the error of pressure gradient force of the sigma system in the presence of steep mountains, but turned out to offer many other advantages.…”

Section: Comparison Of Gef With the Regional Eta Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal range test run with Global Eta Framework

2017

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Abstract. Global Eta Framework (GEF) is a global atmospheric model developed in general curvilinear coordinates and capable of running on arbitrary rectangular quasi-uniform spherical grids, using stepwise ("Eta") representation of the terrain. In this study, the model is run on a cubed-sphere grid topology, in a version with uniform Jacobians (UJ), which provides "equal-area" grid cells, and a smooth transition of coordinate lines across the edges of the cubed-sphere. Within a project at the Brazilian Center for Weather Forecasts and Climate Studies (CPTEC), a nonhydrostatic version of this model is under development and will be applied for seasonal prediction studies. This note describes preliminary tests with the GEF on the UJ cubed-sphere in which model performance is evaluated in seasonal simulations at a horizontal resolution of approximately 25 km, running in the hydrostatic mode. Comparison of these simulations with the ERA-Interim reanalyses shows that the 850 hPa temperature is underestimated, while precipitation pattern is mostly underestimated in tropical continental regions and overestimated in tropical oceanic regions. Nevertheless, the model is still able to well capture the main seasonal climate characteristics. These results will be used as a control run in further tests with the nonhydrostatic version of the model.

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“…The W_5km case captured the amount of precipitation in the extreme heavy rainfall due to typhoons in the Shikoku region being the best From these results, we decided to conduct the SST change experiment under the optimal setting with the nudging only for horizontal wind components, as well as the horizontal resolution of 5 km and without the cumulus scheme, namely W_5km case. The horizontal resolution of around 5 km has been widely used in previous studies [11,18,24,31,56]. The W_5km case captured the amount of precipitation in the extreme heavy rainfall due to typhoons in the Shikoku region being the best among all cases except for W_10km_cu case (Figure 3a), which clearly overestimated the amount of precipitation during the last half of the month (Figures 2b and 3b).…”

Section: Reproducibility Of the Heavy Rainfallmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…From these results, we decided to conduct the SST change experiment under the optimal setting with the nudging only for horizontal wind components, as well as the horizontal resolution of 5 km and without the cumulus scheme, namely W_5km case. The horizontal resolution of around 5 km has been widely used in previous studies [11,18,24,31,56]. The W_5km case captured the amount of precipitation in the extreme heavy rainfall due to typhoons in the Shikoku region being the best From these results, we decided to conduct the SST change experiment under the optimal setting with the nudging only for horizontal wind components, as well as the horizontal resolution of 5 km and without the cumulus scheme, namely W_5km case.…”

Section: Reproducibility Of the Heavy Rainfallmentioning

confidence: 99%

Numerical Simulation of Heavy Rainfall in August 2014 over Japan and Analysis of Its Sensitivity to Sea Surface Temperature

et al. 2018

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This study evaluated the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.7 for simulating a series of rainfall events in August 2014 over Japan and investigated the impact of uncertainty in sea surface temperature (SST) on simulated rainfall in the record-high precipitation period. WRF simulations for the heavy rainfall were conducted for six different cases. The heavy rainfall events caused by typhoons and rain fronts were similarly accurately reproduced by three cases: the TQW_5km case with grid nudging for air temperature, humidity, and wind and with a horizontal resolution of 5 km; W_5km with wind nudging and 5-km resolution; and W_2.5km with wind nudging and 2.5-km resolution. Because the nudging for air temperature and humidity in TQW_5km suppresses the influence of SST change, and because W_2.5km requires larger computational load, W_5km was selected as the baseline case for a sensitivity analysis of SST. In the sensitivity analysis, SST around Japan was homogeneously changed by 1 K from the original SST data. The analysis showed that the SST increase led to a larger amount of precipitation in the study period in Japan, with the mean increase rate of precipitation being 13 ± 8% K −1 . In addition, 99 percentile precipitation (100 mm d −1 in the baseline case) increased by 13% K −1 of SST warming. These results also indicate that an uncertainty of approximately 13% in the simulated heavy rainfall corresponds to an uncertainty of 1 K in SST data around Japan in the study period.

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Climate change projections over three metropolitan regions in Southeast Brazil using the non-hydrostatic Eta regional climate model at 5-km resolution

Cited by 114 publications

References 36 publications

The state of the art and fundamental aspects of regional climate modeling in South America

The state of the art and fundamental aspects of regional climate modeling in South America

Seasonal range test run with Global Eta Framework

Numerical Simulation of Heavy Rainfall in August 2014 over Japan and Analysis of Its Sensitivity to Sea Surface Temperature

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