Climate change projections of temperature and precipitation for the great lakes basin using the PRECIS regional climate model

Zhang, Liang; Zhao, Yingming; Hein-Griggs, David; Janes, Tamara; Tucker, Simon; Ciborowski, Jan J. H.

doi:10.1016/j.jglr.2020.01.013

Cited by 33 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…To date, plenty of studies have engaged in future temperature assessments based on the multi-model ensembles both at global and regional scales, and a consensus is generally reached that the temperature will rise in the future but the magnitude of the increase varies by region (Wang et al, 2017b;Pattnayak et al, 2017;Salman et al, 2018;Ali et al, 2019;Khan et al, 2020;Ullah et al, 2020;Zhang et al, 2020). The differences in temperature rise among previous studies could be attributed to several factors, including the diversity of climate, geography, and social environment (King et al, 2018;Almazroui et al, 2020), and importantly this includes the uncertainty of the employed GCMs with limited number and imperfect performance (Lewis et al, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Projections of Temperature Over the Coastal Area of China Using SimCLIM

Wang

Piao

Hou

et al. 2021

Front. Environ. Sci.

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Facing the western Pacific Ocean and backed by the Eurasian continent, the coastal area of China (hereafter as CAC) is sensitive and vulnerable to climate change due to the compound effects of land-ocean-atmosphere, and thus is prone to suffer huge climate-related disaster losses because of its large population density and fast developed economy in the context of global warming. Here in this study the near- (2040), mid- (2070), and long-future (2100) mean, minimum, and maximum temperature (Tmean, Tmin, and Tmax) projections based on the statistic downscaling climate prediction model (SimCLIM) integrated with 44 General Circulation Models (GCMs) of CMIP5 under three representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) scenarios are evaluated over CAC and its sub-regions. Multi-model ensemble of the selected GCMs demonstrated that there was a dominating and consistent warming trend of Tmean, Tmin, and Tmax in the Chinese coastal area in the future. Under RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios, the annual temperature increase was respectively projected to be in the range of 0.8–1.2°C for 2040, 1.5–2.7°C for 2070, and 1.6–4.4°C for 2100 over the entire CAC. Moreover, a spatial differentiation of temperature changes both on the sub-regional and meteorological station scales was also revealed, generally showing an increment with “high south and low north” for annual average Tmean but “high north and low south” for Tmin and Tmax. An obvious lower increase of Tmean in the hotter months like July and August in the south and a significant sharper increment of Tmin and Tmax in the colder months such as January, February, and December in the north were expected in the future. Results derived from this study are anticipated to provide insights into future temperature changes and also assist in the development of target climate change mitigation and adaptation measures in the coastal area of China.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Projections of Temperature Over the Coastal Area of China Using SimCLIM

Wang

Piao

Hou

et al. 2021

Front. Environ. Sci.

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“…Further, concentrations of glyphosate did not approach thresholds of toxicological concern and dissipated within 30 days to 1 year from water and sediment, respectively (Robichaud and Rooney, in review). However, legacy effects created by established P. australis, such as alterations to soil nutrients Rooney 2019, D'Antonio andMeyerson 2002), and shifting environmental conditions in and surrounding Lake Erie, for example nutrient pollution (e.g., Mohamed et al 2019) and climate change (e.g., Zhang et al 2020), may increase the likelihood of secondary invasions.…”

Section: Recovery Of Native Vegetationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Suppression of established invasivePhragmites australisleads to secondary invasion

Robichaud

Rooney

2020

Preprint

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Invasive Phragmites australis (European Common Reed) is rapidly spreading throughout North American wetlands, with negative impacts on wildlife and native plants. The removal or suppression of P. australis is desired to provide an opportunity for native vegetation and wetland fauna to recover. In Ontario, managers applied a glyphosate-based herbicide to >400 ha of P. australis in ecologically significant Great Lakes coastal marshes, representing the first time this tool was used over standing water to suppress P. australis in Canada. Using a replicated Before-After-Control-Impact monitoring design, we 1) evaluated the efficacy of glyphosate-based herbicide at suppression P. australis along a water depth gradient and 2) assessed the recovery of the vegetation community for two years after treatment in relation to local reference conditions. We found that herbicide reduced live P. australis stem densities by over 99% the first year after treatment and about 95% the second year post-treatment. Treatment was equally effective along the entire water depth gradient (10 – 48 cm). The initial ‘suppression’ focused management was successful, but sustained monitoring and ‘containment’ focused follow-up treatment will be required to prevent reinvasion. Two years after treatment, the vegetation community does not resemble reference conditions. Although some treated plots initially increased in similarity to the vegetation communities typical of reference areas, many plots where P. australis was suppressed are on a novel trajectory comprising a vegetation community dominated by non-native Hydrocharis morsus-ranae. Secondary invasions represent a major challenge to effective recovery of native vegetation after P. australis control.

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“…These impacts are also expected to manifest in hydrological regimes, which influence the spatial and temporal patterns of water resources [7,8]. All these climate projections were derived from a variety of climate change models [3,[9][10][11][12]. Global climate models (GCMs) are mathematical models that integrate components of the Earth, atmospheric and ocean climate systems according to physical, chemical and biological principles to simulate climate with respect to CO 2 emission conditions [13].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Climate Change on the Precipitation and Streamflow Regimes in Equatorial Regions: Guayas River Basin

Ilbay-Yupa

Ilbay

Zubieta

et al. 2021

Water

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The effects of climate change projected for 2050 to 2079 relative to the 1968–2014 reference period were evaluated using 39 CMIP5 models under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario in the Guayas River basin. The monthly normalized precipitation index (SPI) was used in this study to assess the impact of climate change for wet events and droughts from a meteorological perspective. The GR2M model was used to project changes in the streamflow of the Daule River. The climate projection was based on the four rigorously selected models to represent the climate of the study area. On average, an increase in temperature (~2 °C) and precipitation (~6%) is expected. A 7% increase in precipitation would result in a 10% increase in streamflow for flood periods, while an 8% decrease in precipitation could result in approximately a 60% reduction in flow for dry periods. The analysis of droughts shows that they will be more frequent and prolonged in the highlands (Andes) and the middle part of the basin. In the future, wet periods will be less frequent but of greater duration and intensity on the Ecuadorian coast. These results point to future problems such as water deficit in the dry season but also increased streamflow for floods during the wet season. This information should be taken into account in designing strategies for adaptation to climate change.

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Climate change projections of temperature and precipitation for the great lakes basin using the PRECIS regional climate model

Cited by 33 publications

References 16 publications

Climate Change Projections of Temperature Over the Coastal Area of China Using SimCLIM

Climate Change Projections of Temperature Over the Coastal Area of China Using SimCLIM

Suppression of established invasivePhragmites australisleads to secondary invasion

Impacts of Climate Change on the Precipitation and Streamflow Regimes in Equatorial Regions: Guayas River Basin

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