Climate change projections for CORDEX-Africa with COSMO-CLM regional climate model and differences with the driving global climate models

Dosio, Alessandro; Panitz, Hans-Jürgen

doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2664-4

Cited by 151 publications

(88 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…Our results correspond to the work by Dosio & Panitz (2016) showing that rising temperatures simulated by an RCM ensemble using a RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios lead to increasing numbers of warm nights (90th percentile) in the CORDEX-Africa region. Russo et al (2016) found in 50% of regional climate projections applying RCP8.5 emission scenario HWs, which are unusual under the present climate and become regular by 2040 (i.e., under higher temperatures).…”

Section: /2017ef000714supporting

confidence: 90%

“…We set our regional focus over the African continent as Africa is supposed to be a climate change hot spot with a high exposure to future climate changes and a low adaptation capacity resulting in a very large vulnerability to future climate change (e.g., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report). and have been analyzed and published in coordinated ways within the CORDEX-Africa initiative (e.g., Abba Omar & Abiodun, 2017;Abiodun et al, 2017;Diallo et al, 2016;Dosio, 2017;Dosio & Panitz, 2016;Fotso-Nguemo et al, 2017;Pinto et al, 2016;Sylla et al, 2016). Examples are the widely spread rainfed agricultural systems, the fragile infrastructure, and various health issues related to climate such as malnutrition after droughts, heat waves (HWs), but also malaria outbreaks (e.g., Kjellstrom et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Analyzing Regional Climate Change in Africa in a 1.5, 2, and 3°C Global Warming World

et al. 2018

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At the 21st session of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP21) in Paris, an agreement to strengthen the effort to limit the global temperature increase well below 2°C was decided. However, even if global warming is limited, some regions might still be substantially affected by climate change, especially for continents like Africa where the socio‐economic conditions are strongly linked to the climatic conditions. In the paper we will discuss the analysis of indices assigned to the sectors health, agriculture, and infrastructure in a 1.5, 2, and 3°C global warming world for the African continent. For this analysis an ensemble of 10 different general circulation model‐regional climate model simulations conducted in the framework of the COordinated Downscaling EXperiment for Africa was investigated. The results show that the African continent, in particular the regions between 15°S and 15°N, has to expect an increase in hot nights and longer and more frequent heat waves even if the global temperature will be kept below 2°C. These effects intensify if the global mean temperature will exceed the 2°C threshold. Moreover, the daily rainfall intensity is expected to increase toward higher global warming scenarios and will affect especially the African Sub‐Saharan coastal regions.

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Section: /2017ef000714supporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analyzing Regional Climate Change in Africa in a 1.5, 2, and 3°C Global Warming World

et al. 2018

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“…In opposite, the decreasing trends for annual total precipitation (−12 mm/year), the number of heavy (−4.32 days/year) and very heavy precipitation days (−2.7 days/year), the maximum of consecutive wet days have showed the significant for most stations following the RCP8.5 scenario. These results are in line with Dosio and Panitz [55] using the regional climate model CCLM, have predicted a significant reduction of precipitation at the end of the century in West Africa. It is also in line with the recent special IPCC report which states that West Africa will likely experience longer and more intense droughts in the near future [56].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 80%

Decreasing Past and Mid-Century Rainfall Indices over the Ouémé River Basin, Benin (West Africa)

M’Po

Lawin²,

Yao

et al. 2017

Climate

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This study analyzed the trends of extreme daily rainfall indices over the Ouémé basin using the observed data from 1950 to 2014 and the projected rainfall of regional climate model REMO (REgional MOdel) for the period 2015-2050. For future trends analysis, two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) new scenarios are considered, namely RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The indices considered are number of heavy rainfall days, number of very heavy rainfall days, consecutive dry days, consecutive wet days, daily maximum rainfall, five-day maximum rainfall, annual wet-day total rainfall, simple daily intensity index, very wet days, and extremely wet days. These indices were calculated at annual and seasonal scales. The Mann-Kendall non-parametric test and the parametric linear regression approach were used for trends detection. As result, significant declining in the number of heavy and very heavy rainfall days, heavy and extremely heavy rainfall, consecutive wet days and annual wet-day rainfall total were detected in most stations for the historical period as well as the future period following the scenario RCP8.5. Furthermore, few stations presented significant trends for the scenario RCP4.5 and the high proportion of stations with the inconsistence trends invites the planners to get ready for an uncertain future climate following this scenario.

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“…The models' disagreement remains unresolved in phase 5 of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5) despite significant improvements of the models in many aspects [IPCC, 2013;Nicholson, 2013;Biasutti, 2013]. On the other hand, Regional Climate Models (RCMs) tend to produce more consistent projections for WA, in spite of the considerable disagreements among the driving GCMs [Patricola and Cook, 2010;Buontempo et al, 2015;Dosio and Panitz, 2016]. This is mainly attributed to the RCMs physics dominating over the signal imposed by large-scale forcing over WA, and to a lesser extent, the coarse representation of surface conditions in the GCMs being unable to capture the heterogeneous topography, land cover, and For RCM applications, the common approach of prescribing a static land cover is considered a major limitation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multimodel ensemble simulations of present and future climates over West Africa: Impacts of vegetation dynamics

Erfanian

Wang

et al. 2016

J Adv Model Earth Syst

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In this study, we take an ensemble modeling approach using the regional climate model RegCM4.3.4‐CLM‐CN‐DV (RCM) to study the impact of including vegetation dynamics on model performance in simulating present‐day climate and on future climate projections over West Africa. The ensemble consists of four global climate models (GCMs) as lateral boundary conditions for the RCM, and simulations with both static and dynamic vegetation are conducted. The results demonstrate substantial sensitivity of the simulated precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture to vegetation representation. Although including dynamic vegetation in the model eliminates potential inconsistencies between surface climate and the bioclimatic requirements of the prescribed vegetation, it enhances model biases causing climate drift. For present‐day climate, the ensemble average generally outperforms individual members due to cancelation of model biases. For future changes, although the original GCMs project contradicting future rainfall trends over West Africa, the RCMs‐produced trends are generally consistent. The multimodel ensemble projects significant decreases of rainfall over a major portion of West Africa and significant increases over eastern Sahel and East Africa. Projected future changes of evapotranspiration and soil moisture are consistent with those of precipitation, with significant decreases (increases) for western (eastern) Sahel. Accounting for vegetation‐climate interactions has localized but significant impacts on projected future changes of precipitation, with a wet signal over a belt of projected increase of woody vegetation cover; the impact on the projected future changes of evapotranspiration and soil moisture over west and central Africa is much more profound.

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Climate change projections for CORDEX-Africa with COSMO-CLM regional climate model and differences with the driving global climate models

Cited by 151 publications

References 55 publications

Analyzing Regional Climate Change in Africa in a 1.5, 2, and 3°C Global Warming World

Analyzing Regional Climate Change in Africa in a 1.5, 2, and 3°C Global Warming World

Decreasing Past and Mid-Century Rainfall Indices over the Ouémé River Basin, Benin (West Africa)

Multimodel ensemble simulations of present and future climates over West Africa: Impacts of vegetation dynamics

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