Climate change predictions for South America

Burgos, Juan Jacinto; Ponce, Humberto Fuenzalida; Molion, Luiz Carlos Baldicero

doi:10.1007/bf00138999

Cited by 18 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 22 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Regional analyses have been performed over Australia (Whetton and Pittock, 1991;Whetton et al, 1994), New Zealand (Mullan and Renwick, 1990), South America (Burgos et al, 1991) and southern Africa (Hewitson and Crane, 1996;Joubert, 1995;1997) and have recently been reviewed by . While some difference between observed and simulated values is to be expected when validating models, the capacity of the models to capture the physical mechanisms which underlie local climate realistically is of greater importance .…”

Section: Performance Of Gcms In the Southern Hemispherementioning

confidence: 98%

Simulating present and future climates of southern Africa using general circulation models

Joubert

Hewitson

1997

Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The current state of regional climate and climate change modelling using GCMs is reviewed for southern Africa, and several approaches to regional climate change prediction which have been applied to southern Africa are assessed. Confidence in projected regional changes is based on the ability of a range of models to simulate present regional climate, and is greatest where intermodel consensus in terms of the nature of projected changes is highest. Both equilibrium and transient climate change projections for southern Africa are considered. Warming projected over southern Africa is within the range of globally averaged estimates. Uncertainties associated with the parameterization of convection ensure that projected changes in rainfall at GCM grid scales remain unreliable. However, empirical downscaling approaches produce rainfall changes consistent with synoptic-scale circulation. Both downscaling and grid-scale approaches indicate a 10-15% decrease in summer rainfall over the central interior which may have important implications for surface hydrology. Climate change may be manifested as a change in variability, and not in mean climate. Over southern Africa, increases in the variability and intensity of daily rainfall events are indicated.

show abstract

Section: Performance Of Gcms In the Southern Hemispherementioning

confidence: 98%

Simulating present and future climates of southern Africa using general circulation models

Joubert

Hewitson

1997

Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…This mid-century reversal may locally have reached 10 to 30% of the previous long-term mean during the following 30 years. The increase was highest in northern Patagonia and in NE Pampa, with a trough close to zero along the mid-lower Rio Colorado valley (Forte Lay et al, 1987Burgos, 1988Burgos, , 1991Canziani et al, 1990;Burgos et al, 1991;Castaneda & Barros, 1994).…”

Section: Rainfallmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change, drought and desertification

Houérou¹

1996

Journal of Arid Environments

470

241

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…CCC 0899-8418/97/040377-22 $17.50 # 1997 by the Royal Meteorological Society A reference study which compares 14 GCM climate experiments and provides detailed reference to previous similar works can be found in Boer et al (1991). Intercomparison of similar numerical experiments from a reduced number of GCMs has been used previously in describing the possible future climate of Southern Hemisphere continents (Mullan and Renwick, 1990;Burgos et al, 1991;Whetton and Pittock, 1991). A comprehensive assessment of GCM performance over the Southern Hemisphere as a whole is still pending and would be very valuable.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Climate Change in South America Due to a Doubling in the Co2 Concentration: Intercomparison of General Circulation Model Equilibrium Experiments

Labraga

1997

Int. J. Climatol.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Climatic mean sea‐level (MSL) pressure, temperature, and precipitation fields simulated by five general circulation models are compared with observations within the area of the South American subcontinent in order to assess their accuracy. Equilibrium climate experiments with doubled atmospheric CO2 concentration are also intercompared to find consistent climate trend patterns in the region. Results are analysed through statistical methods to appreciate the relative model performance at a regional scale. Descriptive analysis is applied to evaluate each model's ability to simulate outstanding climate features. Statistical analysis of control runs indicates comparable and acceptable model performance in seasonal MSL pressure field and surface temperature field simulations, but less satisfactory results in precipitation. Descriptive analysis reveals that some of the local climate characteristics, such as the location of the summer continental warm centre, and the seasonal variation in the mean latitudinal pressure gradient at the southern end of the continent, are not simulated adequately. Regarding precipitation, even those models that perform better in the statistical comparison fail to simulate some of the major precipitation regimes, either in mean magnitude or seasonality of the rainfall rate. Comparison of the 2×CO2 equilibrium experiments allow us to establish some related and physically consistent trend patterns. Among them: (i) a southward shift in two main pressure systems, the summer continental low and the Pacific anticyclone, consistent with a simulated displacement in the arid zone of central Chile and western Argentina, and a noticeable warm‐up in the region; (ii) maximum warming in Paraguay and southern Brazil up to the Atlantic coast and concurrent weakening of two pressure systems, the Atlantic anticyclone and the continent al high, during winter; (iii) precipitation increase in the tropical central and eastern part of the continent south of about 15°S, and an opposite trend to the north of this latitude, coincident with a maximum warming in the lower Amazon basin and northern coast of South America, and an intensification of the longitudinal pressure difference between the equatorial Pacific and Atlantic Oceans during summer; (iv) enhanced convective activity in the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) along the Pacific coast of South America north of the Equator; (v) precipitation increase in the southern end of the continent, consistent with increasing warming at higher latitudes. © 1997 by the Royal Meteorological Society. Int. J. Climatol. 17, 377–398 (1997).

show abstract

Climate change predictions for South America

Cited by 18 publications

References 22 publications

Simulating present and future climates of southern Africa using general circulation models

Simulating present and future climates of southern Africa using general circulation models

Climate change, drought and desertification

The Climate Change in South America Due to a Doubling in the Co2 Concentration: Intercomparison of General Circulation Model Equilibrium Experiments

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About