Climate change prediction over complex areas: spatial variability of uncertainties and predictions over the Pyrenees from a set of regional climate models

López‐Moreno, Juan I.; Goyette, Stéphane; Beniston, Martin

doi:10.1002/joc.1645

Cited by 106 publications

(99 citation statements)

References 53 publications

(51 reference statements)

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“…Selection of this model was based on its ability to reproduce temperature and precipitation over the Pyrenees and the center of the Ebro valley. Moreover, it was compared with a set of regional climate model projections from the PRUDENCE dataset, as this model is representative of the mean sign and magnitude of the multimodel ensemble average (López-Moreno et al, 2008a). Figure 2 shows the trend of annual and seasonal precipitation across the Ebro basin during the studied period .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Large variations in precipitation and evapotranspiration occur throughout the region (Ninyerola et al, 2005;Vicente-Serrano et al, 2007), and annual precipitation varies from 307 to 2451 mm yr −1 . Most of the precipitation falls in autumn and spring, although in some areas the maximum precipitation occurs in winter and summer (López-Moreno et al, 2008b). Average annual temperature varies from 0.8 to 16.2 • C.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Ebro basin is representative of Mediterranean basins that depend on water generated in mountain areas (mainly the Pyrenees), and are subject to enormous pressure on water resources because of the development of large irrigation areas and industrial zones, and the growth of major urban settlements. Previous studies have identified climate variations and revegetation in headwaters as causes of decreasing river flows in Pyrenean rivers (Beguería et al, 2003;López-Moreno et al, 2008b).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impact of climate evolution and land use changes on water yield in the ebro basin

López‐Moreno

Vicente‐Serrano

Morán-Tejéda

et al. 2011

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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189

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Abstract. In this study the climatic and hydrological trends across 88 sub-basins of the Ebro River basin were analyzed for the period . A new database of climate information and river flows for the entire basin facilitated a spatially distributed assessment of climate-runoff relationships. It constitutes the first assessment of water yield evolution across the whole Ebro basin, a very representative example of large Mediterranean rivers. The results revealed a marked decrease in river discharges in most of the subbasins. Moreover, a number of changes in the seasonality of the river regime was found, resulting from dam regulation and a decrease in snowpack in the headwaters. Significant and positive trends in temperature were observed across most of the basin, whereas most of the precipitation series showed negative coefficients, although the decrease in magnitude was low. The time evolution of the residuals from empirical models that relate climate and runoff in each sub-basin provided evidence that climate alone does not explain the observed decrease in river discharge. Thus, changes in water yield are associated with an increase in evapotranspiration rates in natural vegetation, growth of which has expanded as a consequence of land abandonment in areas where agricultural activities and livestock pressure have decreased. In the lowlands of the basin the decrease in water yield has been exacerbated by increased water consumption for domestic, industrial and agricultural uses. Climate projections for the end of the 21st century suggest a reduced capacity for runoff generation because of increasing temperature and less precipitation. Thus, the maintenance of water supply under conditions of increasing demand presents a challenging issue requiring appropriate coordination amongst politicians and managers.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impact of climate evolution and land use changes on water yield in the ebro basin

López‐Moreno

Vicente‐Serrano

Morán-Tejéda

et al. 2011

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

Self Cite

189

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“…1), which imprinted a sharp horizontal change in ecosystem composition. The two macro-regions are characterised by major climatic differences in water availability and temperature (López-Moreno et al, 2008), with Mediterranean climate being generally warmer, drier and comparatively of larger inter-seasonal variability than the Atlantic climate. This means potential tipping points in alpine lake ecosystems due to climate change effects (particularly through sharp changes in water temperature and dynamics; Khamis et al, 2014) is likely to happen faster across horizontal than vertical gradients in biogeographical boundary regions such as this one, with potentially unexpected effects.…”

Section: Large Geographical Gradientsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Small lakes in big landscape: Multi-scale drivers of littoral ecosystem in alpine lakes

Zaharescu

Burghelea

Hooda

et al. 2016

Science of The Total Environment

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In low nutrient alpine lakes, the littoral zone is the most productive part of the ecosystem, and it is a biodiversity hotspot. It is not entirely clear how the scale and physical heterogeneity of surrounding catchment, its ecological composition, and larger landscape gradients work together to sustain littoral communities.A total of 113 alpine lakes from the central Pyrenees were surveyed to evaluate the functional connectivity between littoral zoobenthos and landscape physical and ecological elements at geographical, catchment and local scales, and to ascertain how they affect the formation of littoral communities. At each lake, the zoobenthic composition was assessed together with geolocation, catchment hydrodynamics, geomorphology and topography, riparian vegetation composition, the presence of trout and frogs, water pH and conductivity.Multidimensional fuzzy set models integrating benthic biota and environmental variables revealed that at geographical scale, longitude unexpectedly surpassed altitude and latitude in its effect on littoral ecosystem. This reflects a sharp transition between Atlantic and Mediterranean climates and suggests a potentially high horizontal vulnerability to climate change. Topography (controlling catchment type, snow coverage and lakes connectivity) was the most influential catchment-scale driver, followed by hydrodynamics (waterbody size, type and volume of inflow/outflow). Locally, riparian plant composition significantly related to littoral community structure, richness and diversity. These variables, directly and indirectly, create habitats for aquatic and terrestrial stages of invertebrates, and control nutrient and water cycles. Three benthic associations characterised distinct lakes. Vertebrate predation, water conductivity and pH had no major influence on littoral taxa.This work provides exhaustive information from relatively pristine sites, and unveils a strong connection between littoral ecosystem and catchment heterogeneity at scales beyond the local environment. This underpins the role of alpine lakes as sensors of local and large-scale environmental changes, which can be used in monitoring networks to evaluate further impacts.

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“…Changes in snow and ice are one of the easiest impacts of climate change to be perceived since they respond rapidly to slight variations in precipitation and temperature (López-Moreno et al, 2008;Nesje and Dahl, 2000). Many studies have reported a decrease in snow thickness and duration in many mountain areas in the world.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of climate change on ski industry

Búrdalo¹,

López-Martín²,

Pino-Otín³

et al. 2014

Environmental Science & Policy

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Ski industry has become one of the main economic activity for many mountain regions worldwide. However, the economic viability of this activity is highly dependent of the interannual variability of the snow and climatic conditions, and it is jeopardized by climate warming. In this study we reviewed the main scientific literature on the relationship between climate change and the ski feasibility under different climate change scenarios. In spite of the different methodologies and climate change scenarios used in the reviewed studies, their findings generally point to a significant impact of climate change on ski industry caused by a reduction in the natural availability of snow as well as a contraction in the duration of seasonal conditions suitable for ski. It emphasizes that the problem is real and should not be ignored in the study and management of tourism in mountain regions. However, there were significant differences in the impacts between different areas. This differences are mainly associated to the elevation of the ski resorts, their infrastructures for snowmaking and the various climate models, emission scenarios, time horizons and scales of analysis used. This review highlights the necessity from scientist to harmonize indicators and methodology thus allowing a better comparison of the results from different studies and increase the clarity of the conclusions transmitted to land managers and policy makers.Moreover, a better integration of the uncertainty in the model´s outputs, as well as the treatment applied to the snowpack in ski slopes is necessary to provide more accurate indications on how this sector will respond to climate change.

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Climate change prediction over complex areas: spatial variability of uncertainties and predictions over the Pyrenees from a set of regional climate models

Cited by 106 publications

References 53 publications

Impact of climate evolution and land use changes on water yield in the ebro basin

Impact of climate evolution and land use changes on water yield in the ebro basin

Small lakes in big landscape: Multi-scale drivers of littoral ecosystem in alpine lakes

Impacts of climate change on ski industry

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