Climate change on Eucalyptus plantations and adaptive measures for sustainable forestry development across Brazil

Florêncio, Gabriel Wilson Lorena; Martins, Fabrina Bolzan; Fagundes, Flávia Fernanda Azevedo

doi:10.1016/j.indcrop.2022.115538

Cited by 16 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 86 publications

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“…Making predictions of rare events is challenging and our findings have three core limitations. Firstly, our model assumes historic drivers from 2010 to 2020 are appropriate for predicting plantation expansion 2020–2030; we do not consider how climate change, new plantation varieties, polices, roads or processing mills would alter plantation productivity and expansion dynamics (Florêncio et al., 2022; Nolte et al., 2013). Second, our model showed limited ability to identify precise expansion locations, chiefly because we infer decade‐long plantation dynamics, which inherently have large uncertainty.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Conflicts and opportunities for commercial tree plantation expansion and biodiversity restoration across Brazil

Cerullo,

Worthington,

Brancalion

et al. 2024

Global Change Biology

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Substantial global restoration commitments are occurring alongside a rapid expansion in land‐hungry tropical commodities, including to supply increasing demand for wood products. Future commercial tree plantations may deliver high timber yields, shrinking the footprint of production forestry, but there is an as‐yet unquantified risk that plantations may expand into priority restoration areas, with marked environmental costs. Focusing on Brazil—a country of exceptional restoration importance and one of the largest tropical timber producers—we use random forest models and information on the economic, social, and spatial drivers of historic commercial tree plantation expansion to estimate and map the probability of future monoculture tree plantation expansion between 2020 and 2030. We then evaluate potential plantation‐restoration conflicts and opportunities at national and biome‐scales and under different future production and restoration pathways. Our simulations show that of 2.8 Mha of future plantation expansion (equivalent to plantation expansion 2010–2020), ~78,000 ha (3%) is forecast to occur in the top 1% of restoration priority areas for terrestrial vertebrates, with ~547,500 ha (20%) and ~1,300,000 ha (46%) in the top 10% and 30% of priority areas, respectively. Just ~459,000 ha (16%) of expansion is forecast within low‐restoration areas (bottom 30% restoration priorities), and the first 1 Mha of plantation expansion is likely to have disproportionate impacts, with potential restoration‐plantation overlap starkest in the Atlantic Forest but prominent in the Pampas and Cerrado as well. Our findings suggest that robust, coherent land‐use policies must be deployed to ensure that significant trade‐offs between restoration and production objectives are navigated, and that commodity expansion does not undermine the most tractable conservation gains under emerging global restoration agendas. They also highlight the potentially significant role an engaged forestry sector could play in improving biodiversity outcomes in restoration projects in Brazil, and presumably elsewhere.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Conflicts and opportunities for commercial tree plantation expansion and biodiversity restoration across Brazil

Cerullo,

Worthington,

Brancalion

et al. 2024

Global Change Biology

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“…Furthermore, studies examining the response of Eucalyptus species to climate change have indicated that planting areas in southeastern and southern Brazil will remain suitable until the end of the century under intermediate (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenarios (Elli et al, 2020; Florêncio et al, 2022). Conversely, regions located in central‐northern Brazil are projected to experience a decline in mean annual growth (Assad et al, 2021; Elli et al, 2020; Florêncio et al, 2022). These climate change effects on mean annual growth could potentially result in future changes in areas dedicated to Eucalyptus cultivation.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts the risk of invasion of eucalypt pests in Brazil

Santos da Mota,

Barbosa,

Marchioro

2023

Agri and Forest Entomology

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Identifying areas at high risk of invasion is considered an important step for prioritization of phytosanitary measures to prevent biological invasions. Because climate change is likely to affect species' habitat suitability, ideally this should be considered in invasion risk assessments. We evaluated whether climate change affects habitat suitability and invasion risk of eight potentially invasive Eucalyptus pests in Brazil: Eucalyptolyma maideni, Mnesampela privata, Ophelimus maskelli, Orgyia postica, Paropsis atomaria, Paropsisterna beata, Paropsisterna cloelia and Trachymela sloanei. The shifts in the distribution range varied depending on the species, year and climate change scenario. While a decrease in the distribution range was predicted for four species, an increase was predicted for two species. Moreover, a decrease and/or increase in distribution depending on the climate change scenario was predicted for two species. Increases in invasion risk were predicted in major Eucalyptus‐producing areas near international airports and high cargo volume seaports. Our study provides an important contribution to knowledge on the effects of climate change on the distribution of eight potentially invasive Eucalyptus pests and reinforces the need to consider the changes in species' habitat suitability in invasion risk assessments.

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Review on Expansion of Eucalyptus: Its Value Impacts on Social, Economic, and Environmental

Maharani,

Fernandes,

Fatriasari

2023

Eucalyptus

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Climate change on Eucalyptus plantations and adaptive measures for sustainable forestry development across Brazil

Cited by 16 publications

References 86 publications

Conflicts and opportunities for commercial tree plantation expansion and biodiversity restoration across Brazil

Conflicts and opportunities for commercial tree plantation expansion and biodiversity restoration across Brazil

Climate change impacts the risk of invasion of eucalypt pests in Brazil

Review on Expansion of Eucalyptus: Its Value Impacts on Social, Economic, and Environmental

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