Climate Change: New Dimensions in Disaster Risk, Exposure, Vulnerability, and Resilience

Lavell, Allan; Oppenheimer, Michael; Diop, Cherif; Hess, Jeremy; Lempert, Robert J.; Li, Jianping; Muir-Wood, Robert; Myeong, Soojeong; Moser, Susanne C.; Takeuchi, Kuniyoshi; Cardona, Omar D.; Hallegatte, Stéphane; Lemos, Maria Carmen; Little, Christopher M.; Lotsch, Alexander; Weber, Elke U.

doi:10.1017/cbo9781139177245.004

Cited by 229 publications

(131 citation statements)

References 159 publications

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“…5,[58][59][60] Strategies to contain climatic events are usually practical at local or project level involving interactions with the people. In this way, the participation of indigenous people using their knowledge, skills and experiences drawn from many years of coping and adapting to changing and variable environments deserve emphasis.…”

Section: Volume 112 | Number 3/4 March/april 2016mentioning

confidence: 99%

Enhancing climate governance through indigenous knowledge: Case in sustainability science

Chanza

Wit

2016

S. Afr. J. Sci.

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The current tempo of climate change strategies puts the notion of sustainability in question. In this philosophy, mitigation and adaptation strategies ought to be appropriate to the sectors and communities that are targeted. There is a growing realisation that the effectiveness of both strategies hinges on climate governance, which also informs their sustainability. The application of the climate governance concept by the technocratic divide (policymakers and climate practitioners) to communities facing climate change impacts, however, is still a poorly developed field, despite extensive treatment by academia. By drawing heavily from conceptual and analytical review of scholarship on the utility of indigenous knowledge (IK) in climate science, these authors argue that IK can be deployed in the practice of climate governance. It reveals that the merits of such a deployment lie in the understanding that the tenets of IK and climate governance overlap and are complementary. This is exhibited by examining the conceptual, empirical and sustainability strands of the climate governance-IK nexus. In the milieu of climate change problems, it is argued that the basic elements of climate governance, where actions are informed by the principles of decentralisation and autonomy; accountability and transparency; responsiveness and flexibility; and participation and inclusion, can be pragmatic particularly to communities who have been religiously observing changes in their environment. Therefore, it becomes necessary to invigorate the participation of communities, with their IK, in designing climate change interventions, which in this view can be a means to attain the objectives of climate governance.

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Section: Volume 112 | Number 3/4 March/april 2016mentioning

confidence: 99%

Enhancing climate governance through indigenous knowledge: Case in sustainability science

Chanza

Wit

2016

S. Afr. J. Sci.

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“…Projected changes in climate variables from global climate models (GCMs) indicate an increase in the frequency of hydrological extremes (Tebaldi et al, 2006;Seneviratne et al, 2012;Sillmann et al, 2013;Kharin et al, 2013). These hydrological shifts go hand in hand with a growing world population that will become ever more vulnerable with respect to access to water and food, and resilience to natural hazards (Lavell et al, 2012). In this context, global multi-model ensembles yield a valuable opportunity for climate projections and impact assessments.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future hydrological extremes: the uncertainty from multiple global climate and global hydrological models

Vidal²,

et al. 2015

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Abstract. Projections of changes in the hydrological cycle from global hydrological models (GHMs) driven by global climate models (GCMs) are critical for understanding future occurrence of hydrological extremes. However, uncertainties remain large and need to be better assessed. In particular, recent studies have pointed to a considerable contribution of GHMs that can equal or outweigh the contribution of GCMs to uncertainty in hydrological projections. Using six GHMs and five GCMs from the ISI-MIP multi-model ensemble, this study aims: (i) to assess future changes in the frequency of both high and low flows at the global scale using control and future (RCP8.5) simulations by the 2080s, and (ii) to quantify, for both ends of the runoff spectrum, GCMs and GHMs contributions to uncertainty using a two-way ANOVA. Increases are found in high flows for northern latitudes and in low flows for several hotspots. Globally, the largest source of uncertainty is associated with GCMs, but GHMs are the greatest source in snow-dominated regions. More specifically, results vary depending on the runoff metric, the temporal (annual and seasonal) and regional scale of analysis. For instance, uncertainty contribution from GHMs is higher for low flows than it is for high flows, partly owing to the different processes driving the onset of the two phenomena (e.g. the more direct effect of the GCMs' precipitation variability on high flows). This study provides a comprehensive synthesis of where future hydrological extremes are projected to increase and where the ensemble spread is owed to either GCMs or GHMs. Finally, our results underline the need for improvements in modelling snowmelt and runoff processes to project future hydrological extremes and the importance of using multiple GCMs and GHMs to encompass the uncertainty range provided by these two sources.

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“…There is therefore a risk that the adaptation needs and priorities of poor urban populations where impacts are slow and incremental-rather than rapid and dramatic-will be ignored by national and international policy communities, with serious negative impacts for the majority of the urban poor in coastal communities in the two countries. In this context, Lavell et al (2012) draw attention to how we frame the relationship between climate change adaptation and disaster risk management. They highlight ways to integrate strategies to address short and long-term impacts of climate change and the processes and outcomes of climate change adaptation.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Out of the frying pan into the fire? Urban penalty of the poor and multiple barriers to climate change adaptation in Cambodia and Tanzania

et al. 2015

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Coastal cities face significant impacts from climate change, with potentially serious consequences for human health especially for the urban poor and other vulnerable groups. As part of a larger study in the Indian Ocean world, this paper assesses the joint effect of urbanicity and wealth status on reported number of barriers to climate change adaptation. Negative binomial regression models were fitted to cross-sectional survey data on 1823 and 1253 individuals in coastal Cambodia and Tanzania, respectively. In the pooled multivariate analysis, there exists an urban poor penalty regarding the total number of reported barriers to climate change adaptation. This relationship persists even when biosocial, socio-cultural, and contextual factors are taken into account. Also, there are differentials in self-ratings on health status by the rural poor, rural non-poor; urban poor, and urban nonpoor. Only 20 % of urban poor and rural poor individuals rated their health status as either very good or excellent compared with 25 and 33 % of rural non-poor and urban non-poor individuals, respectively. Quite unexpectedly, individuals who considered their health status as either fair or good were more likely to report higher number of barriers to climate change adaptation compared with those with poor self-rated health. Individuals in only one age category (more than 65 years) in Cambodia and five age categories (26-30, 31-34, 35-40, 41-45, and 56-60 years) in Tanzania had lower incidence rates of reporting higher number of barriers to climate change adaptation compared with 18-25-year olds. Compared with femalecentered households, extended family in Cambodia and malecentered households in Tanzania had lower incidence rates of reporting higher number of barriers to adaptation. Although in Tanzania, there was no relationship between relative household quality and number of barriers to adaptation, in Cambodia, individuals who rated their household quality as better had lower incidence rates of reporting higher number of barriers to adaptation compared with those who rated their household quality as worst in the neighborhood. A policy implication of this study is that sustaining and improving human settlements and health in the face of ongoing global climate change should become an important lens for coastal cities in both countries.

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Climate Change: New Dimensions in Disaster Risk, Exposure, Vulnerability, and Resilience

Cited by 229 publications

References 159 publications

Enhancing climate governance through indigenous knowledge: Case in sustainability science

Enhancing climate governance through indigenous knowledge: Case in sustainability science

Future hydrological extremes: the uncertainty from multiple global climate and global hydrological models

Out of the frying pan into the fire? Urban penalty of the poor and multiple barriers to climate change adaptation in Cambodia and Tanzania

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