Climate change multi‐model projections for temperature extremes in Portugal

Andrade, Cristina; Fraga, Hélder; Santos, João A.

doi:10.1002/asl2.485

Cited by 55 publications

(40 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…On the other hand, for VER, this metric can be used as a real-time tool in estimating VER timings, allowing growers to improve their planning of management activities. Additionally, as several studies point to air/soil temperature as the main leading factor for the advances/ delays of the phenological stages [Webb et al, 2012;Malheiro et al, 2013], DTP could also prove to be a very useful indicator for monitoring the impacts of future climates in Portuguese viticulture [Andrade et al, 2014;Fraga et al, 2014b]. In our study, the grapevine growth profile differs in each year, with different peak greenness and growth rates.…”

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confidence: 81%

Examining the relationship between the Enhanced Vegetation Index and grapevine phenology

Fraga

Amraoui

Malheiro

et al. 2014

European Journal of Remote Sensing

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Monitoring the main grapevine phenological stages is a key procedure for optimizing vineyard activities and improving yield and quality attributes. Remote sensing may be an effective and practical monitoring tool, as data from on-board satellite sensors can measure vegetative growth. In the current study, a 12-year time series of four main phenophases (budburst, flowering, veraison and harvest) were obtained from an experimental vineyard located in Lisbon (Portugal). LANDSAT surface reflectances were used to calculate the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and derived metrics. Both time series were then analysed. Results show statistically significant relationships between vegetation metrics and phenological timings and intervals, such as the linkage between the peak greenness and flowering/veraison. The current study highlights the applicability of remote sensing to monitor grapevine phenology in both retrospective and real-time, bringing an added-value to the winemaking sector.

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mentioning

confidence: 81%

Examining the relationship between the Enhanced Vegetation Index and grapevine phenology

Fraga

Amraoui

Malheiro

et al. 2014

European Journal of Remote Sensing

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“…In Portugal, since the 1970s, average temperature increased at an average rate of 0.5°C per decade (Santos and Miranda 2006), total precipitation decreased, and the frequency and intensity of droughts have increased (Santos and Miranda 2006). Climate change projections for the next decades reinforce past trends, hinting at overall warming and drying over mainland Portugal (Andrade et al 2014;Costa et al 2012). The National Forest Strategy identifies climate change as one of the most important challenges to the Portuguese forestry sector, highlighting the increase in biotic and abiotic risks, impacts on the potential distribution of the main species and changes in productivity (ICNF 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Implications of future bioclimatic shifts on Portuguese forests

et al. 2016

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As climate is an important driver of vegetation distribution, climate change represents an important challenge to forestry. We (1) identify prevailing bioclimatic conditions for 49 relevant forest species in Portugal and (2) assess future shifts under climate change scenarios. We compute two bioclimatic indices (aridity and thermicity) and a new composite index, at *1 km spatial resolution, and overlap with the species' current ranges. Locations are based on a digital inventory, while climate parameters for both recent-past and future climates (2041-2060), under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, are provided by a multi-model ensemble of climate simulations. Results for future scenarios highlight an overall warming and drying trend. Supramediterranean and mesomediterranean climates will be significantly reduced, while thermomediterranean climates will dramatically increase, from their almost absence in current conditions to an area coverage of *54 % in 2041-2060 for RCP8.5. There is also a clear shift from hyper-humid and humid to sub-humid and from the latter to semi-arid climates (area coverage of *13 % in 2041-2060 for RCP8.5). Lower thermomediterranean subhumid to semi-arid zones will cover the southern half of Portugal. These projections identify the most vulnerable (e.g. Betula pubescens, Quercus pyrenaica and Castanea sativa) and the most adapted (e.g. Quercus suber, Q. rotundifolia, Ceratonia siliqua, Pinus pinea, Quercus coccifera) species in future climates. Current bioclimatic zones associated with Eucalyptus globulus and Pinus pinaster, economically relevant species, will be moderately reduced and relocated. Possible adaptation measures are discussed to improve forest resilience to climate change, while maintaining its economic and environmental benefits.

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“…Although projections for yield are largely heterogeneous and site-specific, most studies agree regarding the projections for the annual yield irregularity. The expected increase in the frequency and intensity of weather extremes (Andrade et al, 2014) will lead to higher inter-annual yield variability, which may affect the whole winemaking sector (Jones et al, 2005a;Schultz, 2000).…”

Section: Impacts On Yieldmentioning

confidence: 99%

Viticulture in Portugal: A review of recent trends and climate change projections

et al. 2017

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Aim:The winemaking sector in Portugal is of major socio-economic relevance, significantly contributing to the national exports and sustaining many wine-related activities, including oenotourism. Portuguese viticultural regions present a wide range of edaphoclimatic conditions with remarkable regional specificities, thus contributing to the individuality of their wines. Owing to the strong influence of climate and weather factors on grapevines, climate change may drive significant impacts on Portuguese viticulture. Methods and results:Climatic projections for the next decades in Portugal highlight an overall warming and drying trend of the grapevine growing season, potentially resulting in modifications in phenology, growth, development, yields and eventually wine characteristics and typicity. Furthermore, the current viticultural suitability of each region is projected to undergo significant changes, suggesting a reshaping of the optimal conditions for viticulture throughout the country. In order to sustain high quality levels and affordable yield regularity, cost-effective, appropriate and timely adaptation measures must be implemented by the sector. Conclusion:The most recent scientific studies covering the potential impacts of climate change on Portuguese viticulture are herein presented.Significance and impact of the study: Possible adaptation measures against these threats are also discussed, foreseeing their integration into decision support systems by stakeholders and decision-makers.

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Climate change multi‐model projections for temperature extremes in Portugal

Cited by 55 publications

References 31 publications

Examining the relationship between the Enhanced Vegetation Index and grapevine phenology

Examining the relationship between the Enhanced Vegetation Index and grapevine phenology

Implications of future bioclimatic shifts on Portuguese forests

Viticulture in Portugal: A review of recent trends and climate change projections

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