Climate change mitigation through livestock system transitions

Abstract

Livestock are responsible for 12% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Sustainable intensification of livestock production systems might become a key climate mitigation technology. However, livestock production systems vary substantially, making the implementation of climate mitigation policies a formidable challenge. Here, we provide results from an economic model using a detailed and high-resolution representation of livestock production systems. We project that by 2030 autonomous transitions toward more efficient systems would decrease emissions by 736 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year (MtCO 2 e·y −1 ), mainly through avoided emissions from the conversion of 162 Mha of natural land. A moderate mitigation policy targeting emissions from both the agricultural and land-use change sectors with a carbon price of US$10 per tCO 2 e could lead to an abatement of 3,223 MtCO 2 e·y −1 . Livestock system transitions would contribute 21% of the total abatement, intra-and interregional relocation of livestock production another 40%, and all other mechanisms would add 39%. A comparable abatement of 3,068 MtCO 2 e·y −1 could be achieved also with a policy targeting only emissions from land-use change. Stringent climate policies might lead to reductions in food availability of up to 200 kcal per capita per day globally. We find that mitigation policies targeting emissions from land-use change are 5 to 10 times more efficient-measured in "total abatement calorie cost"-than policies targeting emissions from livestock only. Thus, fostering transitions toward more productive livestock production systems in combination with climate policies targeting the land-use change appears to be the most efficient lever to deliver desirable climate and food availability outcomes.productivity | food security | marginal abatement cost | deforestation | mathematical programming

Cattle ranching intensification in Brazil can reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by sparing land from deforestation

“…This analysis uses the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM), a bottom-up economic partial equilibrium model of the global land use economy that depicts the competition for land between the forestry, crop, and livestock sectors (50)(51)(52). Demand for food and wood is determined by exogenous population and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita projections and by projections of dietary patterns and trends (53).…”

Early action on Paris Agreement allows for more time to change energy systems

“…For non-CO 2 emissions, the agriculture-related emissions from IMAGE land are combined with MAC curves based on Lucas et al (2007) using updates of U.S. EPA (2013), Harnisch et al (2009), andSchwarz et al (2011). Given the detailed analysis of current policies and NDCs for land-use change and forestry (LULUCF), CO 2 emissions by the GLOBIOM/G4M team were used here instead of using IMAGE land, in combination with the response curves from the GLOBIOM/G4M models (Havlík et al 2014;Böttcher et al 2011;Kindermann et al 2008) (see also Online Resources-Supplementary text). For calculating CO 2 -equivalent emissions, 100-year Global Warming Potentials from IPCC AR4 are used (GHGs covered are CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O, PFCs, HFCs, SF 6 ).…”

Climate regulation, energy provisioning and water purification: Quantifying ecosystem service delivery of bioenergy willow grown on riparian buffer zones using life cycle assessment

“…Projected increases in demand for agricultural commodities suggest a need to ''spare'' non-farmed high-nature value areas from agricultural expansion via ''sustainable intensification'' (Garnett et al 2013). Although current intensive crop and livestock systems may produce food with a lower GHG intensity than extensive systems when global land use change (LUC) is considered (Burney et al 2010;Havlík et al 2014), such systems diminish the delivery of other ecosystem services (Haas et al 2000;Firbank et al 2013), especially via large releases of reactive nitrogen to air and water (Dalgaard et al 2012;Pinder et al 2012) that can be particularly problematic in the vicinity of large, enclosed water bodies. Kiedrzyńska et al (2014) found strong Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-016-0790-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.…”