Climate change may impair electricity generation and economic viability of future Amazon hydropower

Almeida, Rafael M.; Fleischmann, Ayan Santos; Brêda, João Paulo Fialho; Cardoso, Diego S.; Angarita, Héctor; Collischonn, Walter; Forsberg, Bruce R.; García‐Villacorta, Roosevelt; Hamilton, Stephen K.; Hannam, Phillip M.; Paiva, Rodrigo Cauduro Dias de; Poff, N. LeRoy; Sethi, Suresh A.; Shi, Qinru; Gomes, Carla P.; Flecker, Alexander S.

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102383

Cited by 25 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…Just over a quarter of all dams (1648; 27%) are in regions that have medium to very high biodiversity risk and are projected to also have medium to extreme risk for water scarcity in 2050 (Figure 15). The countries with the greatest number of dams in areas of medium to very high levels for both risks are Turkey (233 dams), Nepal (210), India (161), Spain (110), Albania (73), Bulgaria (60), Portugal (51), Argentina (40), USA-California (39), and Pakistan (37). In addition, individual large dams with medium to high levels of both risks include High Aswan (Egypt), Akosombo (Ghana), Ataturk (Turkey), Grand Ethiopian Renaissance (Ethiopia), Hoover (USA-Nevada), Sobradinho (Brazil-Bahia), Keban (Turkey), Kapchagay (Kazakhstan), Glen Canyon (USA-Arizona), and Mingechaur (Azerbaijan) (Figure 16).…”

Section: Hydropower Dams and The Interaction Of Projected Water Scarc...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Climate change is also projected to reduce the discharge of the rivers in the Amazon basin. Almeida et al found that this lower discharge will reduce generation at 350 projected dams by up to 30% compared to current hydrology, potentially making these dams financially less competitive relative to other sources of renewable generation such as wind and solar [73].…”

Section: Hydrological Risks and Financial And Economic Risks For Hydr...mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Using the WWF Water Risk Filter to Screen Existing and Projected Hydropower Projects for Climate and Biodiversity Risks

Opperman

Camargo

Laporte-Bisquit

et al. 2022

Water

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Climate change is predicted to drive various changes in hydrology that can translate into risks for river ecosystems and for those who manage rivers, such as for hydropower. Here we use the WWF Water Risk Filter (WRF) and geospatial analysis to screen hydropower projects, both existing (2488 dams) and projected (3700 dams), for a variety of risks at a global scale, focusing on biodiversity risks, hydrological risks (water scarcity and flooding), and how those hydrological risks may shift with climate change, based on three scenarios. Approximately 26% of existing hydropower dams and 23% of projected dams are within river basins that currently have medium to very high risk of water scarcity; 32% and 20% of the existing and projected dams, respectively, are projected to have increased risk by 2050 due to climate change. For flood risk, 75% of existing dams and 83% of projected dams are within river basins with medium to very high risk, and the proportion of hydropower dams in basins with the highest levels of flood risk is projected to increase by nearly twenty times (e.g., from 2% to 36% of dams). In addition, a large proportion of existing (76%) and projected hydropower dams (93%) are located in river basins with high or very high freshwater biodiversity importance. This is a high-level screening, intended to elucidate broad patterns of risk to increase awareness, highlight trends, and guide more detailed studies.

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Section: Hydropower Dams and The Interaction Of Projected Water Scarc...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Hydrological Risks and Financial And Economic Risks For Hydr...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Using the WWF Water Risk Filter to Screen Existing and Projected Hydropower Projects for Climate and Biodiversity Risks

Opperman

Camargo

Laporte-Bisquit

et al. 2022

Water

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“…Optimizing variables that integrate a set of related services into bundles (7,12,36) may also be effective in advancing strategic hydropower planning and minimizing challenges associated with complex trade-offs among criteria. Further considering uncertainties in river basin planning-such as climate change, disruptions in governance, and adoption of alternative energy sources including wind and solar (42)(43)(44)(45)(46)-will be critical before embracing hydropower expansion in the Amazon, because these are likely to shape trade-offs among criteria. In addition, site-scale optimization of operations can partly mitigate some of the adverse effects of poor dam placement (47).…”

Section: Conclusion and Prospectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reducing adverse impacts of Amazon hydropower expansion

Flecker

Shi

Almeida

et al. 2022

Science

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Proposed hydropower dams at more than 350 sites throughout the Amazon require strategic evaluation of trade-offs between the numerous ecosystem services provided by Earth’s largest and most biodiverse river basin. These services are spatially variable, hence collective impacts of newly built dams depend strongly on their configuration. We use multiobjective optimization to identify portfolios of sites that simultaneously minimize impacts on river flow, river connectivity, sediment transport, fish diversity, and greenhouse gas emissions while achieving energy production goals. We find that uncoordinated, dam-by-dam hydropower expansion has resulted in forgone ecosystem service benefits. Minimizing further damage from hydropower development requires considering diverse environmental impacts across the entire basin, as well as cooperation among Amazonian nations. Our findings offer a transferable model for the evaluation of hydropower expansion in transboundary basins.

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“…The MGB model (Large Basins Model) is a semi-distributed, hydrologic-hydrodynamic model that has been widely used in several hydrological studies, including real-time flow forecasting (Fan et al, 2015b;Siqueira et al, 2020), hydrological reanalysis (Wongchuig et al, 2019) and assessment of climate impacts in the Amazon (Sorribas et al, 2016;Almeida et al, 2021).…”

Section: The Mgb Hydrological Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Where: g is the gravity acceleration [m/s 2 ]; Δt is the model timestep [s]; Δx is the flow distance [km]; h is the maximum flow depth among all unit-catchments [m] and α is a constant lower than 1, used to avoid numerical instability, with advisable values below 0.9 (Almeida et al, 2021).…”

Section: The Mgb Hydrological Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrological-hydrodynamic simulation and analysis of the possible influence of the wind in the extraordinary flood of 1941 in Porto Alegre

Possa

Collischonn

Jardim

et al. 2022

RBRH

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The great flood of 1941 remains the most impactful and traumatic flood event in the history of Porto Alegre. This event was caused by a combination of heavy rainfall in the basin in the days prior to the peak of the flood, and the wind that occurred during the flood. However, the influence of wind on the maximum flood level, although frequently mentioned, is not well known. This is largely because there are no systematic data for wind speed measuring and direction in 1941. Therefore, the present work aims to estimate the discharge and the maximum flood level in the city of Porto Alegre and in other relevant points of the basin. using hydrological-hydrodynamic modeling and, from there, analyze the possible role of the wind during the flood, through the simulation of hypothetical wind scenarios. The results showed that the discharges and levels were represented reasonably well with the MGB model at several locations in the basin. In relation to the 1941 event and the scenarios created, the contribution of the wind to the peak of the flood was of the order of a few to tens of centimeters, showing its potential role despite the limitations of the model.

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Climate change may impair electricity generation and economic viability of future Amazon hydropower

Cited by 25 publications

References 36 publications

Using the WWF Water Risk Filter to Screen Existing and Projected Hydropower Projects for Climate and Biodiversity Risks

Using the WWF Water Risk Filter to Screen Existing and Projected Hydropower Projects for Climate and Biodiversity Risks

Reducing adverse impacts of Amazon hydropower expansion

Hydrological-hydrodynamic simulation and analysis of the possible influence of the wind in the extraordinary flood of 1941 in Porto Alegre

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