Climate change is projected to outpace rates of niche change in grasses

Cang, F. Alice; Wilson, Ashley A.; Wiens, John J.

doi:10.1098/rsbl.2016.0368

Cited by 31 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Nevertheless, important questions remain unanswered. First, do these results apply to other organisms besides vertebrates, such as arthropods (which include most described species) and plants (on which most species depend, including humans; for some plant results see [24])? Second, do they apply to shorter time scales?…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Rates of change in climatic niches in plant and animal populations are much slower than projected climate change

2016

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Electronic supplementary material is available online at https://dx.doi.org/10.5061/dryad. f5vn5.Rates of change in climatic niches in plant and animal populations are much slower than projected climate change Climate change may soon threaten much of global biodiversity. A critical question is: can species undergo niche shifts of sufficient speed and magnitude to persist within their current geographic ranges? Here, we analyse niche shifts among populations within 56 plant and animal species using time-calibrated trees from phylogeographic studies. Across 266 phylogeographic groups analysed, rates of niche change were much slower than rates of projected climate change (mean difference . 200 000-fold for temperature variables). Furthermore, the absolute niche divergence among populations was typically lower than the magnitude of projected climate change over the next approximately 55 years for relevant variables, suggesting the amount of change needed to persist may often be too great, even if these niche shifts were instantaneous. Rates were broadly similar between plants and animals, but especially rapid in some arthropods, birds and mammals. Rates for temperature variables were lower at lower latitudes, further suggesting that tropical species may be especially vulnerable to climate change.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…One approach for estimating past rates of change in climatic niches is to compare niches among closely related species using time-calibrated phylogenies [23,24]. For example, Quintero & Wiens [23] analysed rates of change among 540 terrestrial vertebrate species, using climatic data from their current geographic ranges.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rates of change in climatic niches in plant and animal populations are much slower than projected climate change

2016

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“…7 This is concerning because grassland is one of the most widespread biomes in the world, supporting many endemic species. 8 Specifically, calcareous grasslands are among the most diverse and threatened plant communities in Europe, 9,10 containing between 20 and 50 different vascular plants per square metre, many of them rare or threatened. 9 Therefore, calcareous grassland is an ecosystem of high conservation value 10,11 and high aesthetic appeal.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Severe effects of long-term drought on calcareous grassland seed banks

et al. 2018

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Climate change models project shifts in precipitation patterns at regional and global scales. Increases in dry areas and the occurrence of drought predicted in future scenarios are likely to threaten grassland ecosystems. Calcareous grassland seed banks have proven to be resistant to short-term drought, but their responses to long-term drought are unknown. Here we show that 14 years of summer drought changed calcareous grassland seed bank composition, reducing its size and richness, and that these responses do not simply reflect patterns in the above-ground vegetation. Moreover, the effect of drought was larger on seed banks than on vegetation, and above-ground responses mediated by soil depth were less evident in the seed bank than in the vegetation. These results demonstrate that the severity of drought effects on calcareous grasslands is larger than previously thought, and show that this ecosystem is highly vulnerable and has low resilience to predicted decreases in soil moisture.

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“…Before the selection of a few species that led to complete domestication, experimentation with multiple grass species occurred in multiple places across the Fertile Crescent region for centuries [24]. Even then, at the end of the day, looking for new grasses with the potential to replace the staple grains of the past 20,000 plus years may be an exercise in futility (or another wicked problem), if the survival of all Poaceae in these times of climate change is threatened [20].…”

Section: Human Adaptation and Resilience To Changing Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

“…In forecasting shifting climate scenarios to 2070, it was found that Poaceae as a family is unlikely to adapt through climate niche change and migration to more amenable habitat [20]. This is particularly troublesome given that maize, rice and wheat are not only the major plants cropped globally, they currently account for 89% of all cereal production, and supplied 42% of all the calories consumed by humans in 2009 [21].…”

Section: Human Adaptation and Resilience To Changing Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

Beyond Turf and Lawn: Poaceae in This Age of Climate Change

Dunster¹

2017

Grasses - Benefits, Diversities and Functional Roles

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Grassland ecosystems dominated by Poaceae are estimated to cover 40.5% of Earth's land base, and domestication of a few edible grass species into highly productive cereal grains aided the shift from nomadic food gathering to ield cultivation and higher density habitation. In the Northern Hemisphere, grasses are used ornamentally and for pasture, fodder and forage with litle thought that the grasses livestock grazed upon, or those we gaze upon have multi-functional uses elsewhere. In this age of climate change, the use of Poaceae solely for aesthetics and amenity depletes inite potable water supplies that are needed for human survival. Agricultural land is consumed for turf seed production, and land is removed from food production. Cereals and their growing regions, which we have depended upon as food for millennia, are unlikely to adapt to climate change, and this will result in food insecurity and famines. Despite traditional uses of Poaceae in various cultures, many unrealized needs for food, medicine and other material goods could be met elsewhere with knowledge transfer. Our modern relationship with grass as an ornamental or amenity must end. As designers, gardeners and urban dwellers, we must use Poaceae for its multi-functions, which will lead to resilience and survival.

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Climate change is projected to outpace rates of niche change in grasses

Cited by 31 publications

References 21 publications

Rates of change in climatic niches in plant and animal populations are much slower than projected climate change

Rates of change in climatic niches in plant and animal populations are much slower than projected climate change

Severe effects of long-term drought on calcareous grassland seed banks

Beyond Turf and Lawn: Poaceae in This Age of Climate Change

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