Climate change-induced extreme weather events alter the frequency of firearm incidents and child maltreatment cases in Wayne County, Michigan

Abstract

Climate change is creating more frequent extreme weather events. Yet the impacts of such events on human behavior, specifically violence, are not well understood. We used Wayne County, Michigan, as a case study to explore extreme weather’s influence on violence. We gathered county data on extreme weather events, firearm violence, and child maltreatment at the daily level from 2018-2023. Over this period, the week following an extreme weather event had less firearm violence (RR: 0.74[0.57-0.98]); analyses found no associations with child maltreatment (RR: 1.02[0.89-1.17]). Yet, between March 2020-2021—a year of strained resources—analyses found no protective association against firearm violence (RR: 1.02[0.74, 1.41]), and the week following an extreme weather event had more child maltreatment (RR: 1.18[0.97-1.44]). The influence of extreme weather on constraining people’s activities towards their homes may explain the decreased risk for firearm violence following an extreme weather event. Associations between extreme weather and child maltreatment, however, are likely products of compounded caregiver stress. Mitigating the adverse effects of climate change on child safety should therefore involve maintaining or quickly reestablishing services to support caregivers and children before, during, and after extreme weather events.