Climate change‐induced decline in bamboo habitats and species diversity: implications for giant panda conservation

Abstract

Aim Conservation strategies must anticipate how climate change may alter the geographic distributions of limited food resources for highly specialized species. Here, we use bamboo as a case study to investigate climate change-induced changes in species diversity and discuss how to protect the critical food species for giant pandas.Location Giant panda habitats.Methods Using a niche-based model and the most updated climate projections, we projected the current and future distribution of 16 bamboo species under no and universal dispersal assumptions. We then assessed the impact of climate change on bamboo forests and their alpha and beta diversities in the giant panda habitats and reserves.Results Under both dispersal assumptions and three RCPs, six bamboo species are projected to vanish from panda habitats as climate change progresses, resulting in a great loss of the current bamboo forests. Although about half of the bamboo species may potentially colonize new climatically suitable areas under universal dispersal, the other species would experience significant habitat loss. Consequently, climate change would reduce both the alpha and beta diversity of bamboo species in panda habitats. Meanwhile, the proportion of single-species bamboo forests would significantly increase. The decline in bamboo forests and diversity would be most drastic in Qinling, Daxiangling and Qionglaishan Mountains, whereas those in the north-west of Minshan Mountains and Liangshan Mountains may increase.Main conclusions Climate change-induced decline in bamboo habitats and species diversity would pose a severe challenge to the food availability of giant pandas. We posit that human-assisted adaptation and increasing bamboo species diversity are critical to ensuring food security of the giant panda in a changing climate. Our results indicate that conservation planning should not only incorporate species range shifts but also diversity patterns in communities under climate change.

An endemic rat species complex is evidence of moderate environmental changes in the terrestrial biodiversity centre of China through the late Quaternary

“…The dramatic population contraction and range shift of these large mammals are now the focus of recent research and conservation activities in China and worldwide1617181920. Despite the fierce controversy that has persisted for decades, climate changes and the massive growth in human populations are generally considered to be the major causes of the dramatic population contraction and range shift of large mammals in the past two millennia162122.…”

Protecting rare and endangered species under climate change on the Qinghai Plateau, China

“…Universal dispersal means that species could disperse to any suitable places for population persistence in future, while limited dispersal means that species only can inhabit only places that are modeled to be suitable both in the present and in future (Li, Xu, Wong, Qiu, Sheng, et al, 2015;Thomas et al, 2004). Universal dispersal means that species could disperse to any suitable places for population persistence in future, while limited dispersal means that species only can inhabit only places that are modeled to be suitable both in the present and in future (Li, Xu, Wong, Qiu, Sheng, et al, 2015;Thomas et al, 2004).…”

“…The minimum number of occurrences was 21. Because reliable future projection of human footprint index is not available, and including static variables in models alongside dynamic variables can improve model performance (Li, Xu, Wong, Qiu, Sheng, et al, 2015), I kept these variables static in our projections. Slope and aspect were derived from a DEM with a resolution of 90 m, which was obtained from USGS.…”

“…Meanwhile, climate change could bring new species into PAs, which will affect the conservation goal of the existing PAs as well as their management effectiveness (Araújo & Rahbek, 2006, Dawson, Jackson, House, Prentice, & Mace, 2011. Therefore, it is crucial to project the impacts of climate change on species habitat and turnover across time and space, which can greatly help conservation managers with development of adaptation strategies aimed at improving the effectiveness of PA networks and reducing the extinct risk of these key endangered species under the rapid climate change (Araújo, Cabeza, Thuiller, Hannah, & Williams, 2004;Dawson et al, 2011;Li, Xu, Wong, Qiu, Sheng, et al, 2015).…”

“…vegetation shifts under climate change(Ponce-Reyes et al, 2012;Rebelo, Tarroso, & Jones, 2010;Wong, Li, Xu, & Long, 2013). The full extent of the study area was used to extract 10,000 pseudoabsence points to improve model performance(Li, Xu, Wong, Qiu, Sheng, et al, 2015;VanderWal, Shoo, Graham, & Williams, 2009). I built the distribution model for the each species using the selected eight bioclimatic variables, and three environmental variables (slope, aspect, and human footprint index) as predictors.…”