Climate change in the next 30 years: What can a convection-permitting model tell us that we did not already know?

Fosser, Giorgia; Khodayar, S.; Berg, Peter

doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3186-4

Cited by 52 publications

(52 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…Correlations are highest for the winter season (∼ 0.91-0.93). The agreement across resolutions may be attributed to the already relatively high resolution of CLM7 (Fosser et al 2016). In contrast with our findings, Kendon et al (2014) and Ban et al (2015) reported improvements in their convection-permitting simulations at 2-km resolution, especially in summer, compared with the convection-parameterized model at 12-km resolution.…”

Section: Precipitationcontrasting

confidence: 97%

Scale dependency of regional climate modeling of current and future climate extremes in Germany

Tölle

Schefczyk

Gutjahr

2017

Theor Appl Climatol

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A warmer climate is projected for mid-Europe, with less precipitation in summer, but with intensified extremes of precipitation and near-surface temperature. However, the extent and magnitude of such changes are associated with creditable uncertainty because of the limitations of model resolution and parameterizations. Here, we present the results of convection-permitting regional climate model simulations for Germany integrated with the COSMO-CLM using a horizontal grid spacing of 1.3 km, and additional 4.5-and 7-km simulations with convection parameterized. Of particular interest is how the temperature and precipitation fields and their extremes depend on the horizontal resolution for current and future climate conditions. The spatial variability of precipitation increases with resolution because of more realistic orography and physical parameterizations, but values are overestimated in summer and over mountain ridges in all simulations compared to observations. The spatial variability of temperature is improved at a resolution of 1.3 km, but the results are cold-biased, especially in summer. The increase in resolution from 7/4.5 km to 1.3 km is accompanied by less future warming in summer by 1 Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany precipitation extremes will be more severe, and temperature extremes will not exclusively increase with higher resolution. Although the differences between the resolutions considered (7/4.5 km and 1.3 km) are small, we find that the differences in the changes in extremes are large. High-resolution simulations require further studies, with effective parameterizations and tunings for different topographic regions. Impact models and assessment studies may benefit from such high-resolution model results, but should account for the impact of model resolution on model processes and climate change.

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Section: Precipitationcontrasting

confidence: 97%

Scale dependency of regional climate modeling of current and future climate extremes in Germany

Tölle

Schefczyk

Gutjahr

2017

Theor Appl Climatol

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“…Ban et al (2015), in contrast, found that the intensities of both hourly and daily extreme precipitation scale with temperature at the CC rate in a 2.2 km resolution RCM simulation over the Alps. Comparing a 7 km convection-parameterising model with a convection-permitting 2.8 km resolution RCM in southern Germany, Fosser et al (2016) found similar climate change signals for both models. If only wet days are considered the scaling reaches super CC rates for hourly precipitation in the convection-permitting model.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 75%

“…With respect to the secondary hazards that can be triggered by heavy precipitation, a review compiled by Gariano and Guzzetti (2016) reports an increased risk for landslide fatalities in regions where climate change increases the frequency and intensity of severe precipitation. In contrast, the response of river floods to climate change is less homogeneous.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increasing frequencies and changing characteristics of heavy precipitation events threatening infrastructure in Europe under climate change

Nissen¹,

Ulbrich²

2017

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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The effect of climate change on potentially infrastructure-damaging heavy precipitation events in Europe is investigated in an ensemble of regional climate simulations conducted at a horizontal resolution of 12 km. Based on legislation and stakeholder interviews the 10-year return period is used as a threshold for the detection of relevant events.A novel technique for the identification of heavy precipitation events is introduced. It records not only event frequency but also event size, duration and severity (a measure taking duration, size and rain amount into account) as these parameters determine the potential consequences of the event. Over most of Europe the frequency of relevant heavy precipitation events is predicted to increase with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The number of daily and multi-day events increases at a lower rate than the number of sub-daily events. The event size is predicted to increase in the future over many European regions, especially for sub-daily events. Moreover, the most severe events were detected in the projection period. The predicted changes in frequency, size and intensity of events may increase the risk for infrastructure damages. The climate change simulations do not show changes in event duration.

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“…Comparing with a smaller sample, one event per year on average, the parameters of a larger sample must not deviate beyond the uncertainty bounds of the smaller sample. We follow Coles et al (2001) approach as implemented in the R library "ex-tRemes" (Gilleland and Katz, 2016) and investigate the appropriate threshold for the different durations of one member of the historical period for each RCM and in all subregions. To determine the threshold at a 95 % confidence level, we go through all grid points of each subdomain and find the average number of events per year that is rejected by at most 5 % of the grid points.…”

Section: Extreme Value Theory Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Summertime precipitation extremes in a EURO-CORDEX 0.11° ensemble at an hourly resolution

Berg

Christensen

Klehmet

et al. 2019

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Regional climate model simulations have routinely been applied to assess changes in precipitation extremes at daily time steps. However, shorter sub-daily extremes have not received as much attention. This is likely because of the limited availability of high temporal resolution data, both for observations and for model outputs. Here, summertime depth duration frequencies of a subset of the EURO-CORDEX 0.11∘ ensemble are evaluated with observations for several European countries for durations of 1 to 12 h. Most of the model simulations strongly underestimate 10-year depths for durations up to a few hours but perform better at longer durations. The spatial patterns over Germany are reproduced at least partly at a 12 h duration, but all models fail at shorter durations. Projected changes are assessed by relating relative depth changes to mean temperature changes. A strong relationship with temperature is found across different subregions of Europe, emission scenarios and future time periods. However, the scaling varies considerably between different combinations of global and regional climate models, with a spread in scaling of around 1–10 % K−1 at a 12 h duration and generally higher values at shorter durations.

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Climate change in the next 30 years: What can a convection-permitting model tell us that we did not already know?

Cited by 52 publications

References 43 publications

Scale dependency of regional climate modeling of current and future climate extremes in Germany

Scale dependency of regional climate modeling of current and future climate extremes in Germany

Increasing frequencies and changing characteristics of heavy precipitation events threatening infrastructure in Europe under climate change

Summertime precipitation extremes in a EURO-CORDEX 0.11° ensemble at an hourly resolution

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