Climate Change in the Mediterranean Basin (Part I): Induced Alterations on Climate Forcings and Hydrological Processes

Climate Change in the Mediterranean Basin (Part II): A Review of Challenges and Uncertainties in Climate Change Modeling and Impact Analyses

“…According to Jiménez Cisneros et al ( 2014 ), climate change is likely to causing a significant reduction in fresh water availability over the MB, with decreases by 2–15% for 2 °C of warming (Cramer et al 2018 ), among the largest in the world, and relevant increases in the length of meteorological dry spells (Kovats et al 2014 ; Schleussner et al 2016 ) and droughts (Tsanis et al 2011 ). A possible decrease in surface runoff, as well as in groundwater levels (Noto et al 2022 ), would imply a decline in water supply to natural and artificial reservoirs, which are mainly used for irrigation. Considering the per-capita water availability critical threshold of 1000 m 3 year −1 , generally accepted for severe water stress, for some regions already characterized by under-threshold values, such as the southeastern Spain and the southern shores, the per-capita water availability may drop below 500 m 3 year −1 in the next future.…”

“…Water consumes in the MB are prevalently due to irrigated agriculture, with, on average, about 50% of the total water withdrawal intended for agriculture (Fader et al 2016 ), and significant variations over the different Mediterranean sub-regions (e.g., 1.3% in Croatia, 12% in France, 90% in Syria, Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece). As it emerges from the trends and projections discussed in Noto et al ( 2022 ), future climate in this region is expected to shift towards warmer and drier scenarios, also decreasing available groundwater resources (Collins et al 2013 ; García-Ruiz et al 2011 ; Kovats et al 2014 ).…”

“…As discussed in Noto et al ( 2022 ), the Mediterranean Basin (MB) has experienced, and will likely experience, a reduction in annual rainfall, over most of its areas, and widespread warming, especially during the summer season. The combined effect of the reduction in total annual precipitation and the air warming, which has a direct effect on all the processes involved in the soil water balance, might lead to critical water shortages in several areas of the MB.…”

“…Starting from the literature review made in the companion paper (Noto et al 2022 ), this paper focuses on the main recent works on climate change in the MB across the last ten years of research, limiting the research to works already published in high impact factor journals, selected by using as database Scopus and Google Scholar. In particular the paper focuses on: i) the main challenges that potential future changes may pose in terms of water availability in the MB and ii) the main issues concerning climate change modeling and impact analyses.…”

“…This work offers a comprehensive overview of recent works on climate change in the Mediterranean basin, mainly focusing on the last ten years of research. Past and future trends on different components of the hydrological balance are discussed in a companion paper (Noto et al 2022 ), while the present paper focuses on the problem of water availability and water scarcity. In addition, the work aims to discuss the most relevant sources of uncertainty related to climate change with the aim to gain awareness of climate change impact studies interpretation and reliability.…”