Climate Change in the Kola Peninsula, Arctic Russia, during the Last 50 Years from Meteorological Observations

Abstract

The authors provide a detailed climatology and evaluation of recent climate change in the Kola Peninsula, Arctic Russia, a region influenced by both the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans. The analysis is based on 50 years of monthly surface air temperature (SAT), precipitation (PPN), and sea level pressure (SLP) data from 10 meteorological stations for 1966-2015. Regional mean annual SAT is ;08C: the moderating effect of the ocean is such that coastal (inland) stations have a positive (negative) value. Examined mean annual PPN totals rise from ;430 mm in the northeast of the region to ;600 mm in the west. Annual SAT in the Kola Peninsula has increased by 2.38 6 1.08C over the past 50 years. Seasonally, statistically significant warming has taken place in spring and fall, although the largest trend has occurred in winter. Although there has been no significant change in annual PPN, spring has become significantly wetter and fall drier. The former is associated with the only significant seasonal SLP trend (decrease). A positive winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is generally associated with a warmer and wetter Kola Peninsula whereas a positive Siberian high (SH) index has the opposite impact. The relationship between both the NAO and SH and the SAT is broadly coherent across the region whereas their relationship with PPN varies markedly, although none of the relationships is temporally invariant. Reduced sea ice in the Barents and White Seas and associated circulation changes are likely to be the principal drivers behind the observed changes.

Long-Term Climate Trends and Extreme Events in Northern Fennoscandia (1914–2013)

“…The most noticeable changes were observed in spring and autumn seasons and to a lesser extent in the summer. These results are consistent with studies from the circumpolar areas reporting increasing temperature trends [40,46], narrowing diurnal temperature ranges [50], shortening cold season, declining number of frost days [61][62][63][64], an increasing number of extreme warm events and a declining number of extreme cold events [11,48,51,[65][66][67][68][69]. For example, the mean temperature in Finland has risen by 0.14 • C/decade during the years 1847-2013 with the highest increases in winter and spring months [45].…”

“…Stronger-than-average westerlies over the middle latitudes during a positive phase of NAO might, however, have a less pronounced impact on local climate in our study area than south of 65 • N [74]. Of importance are also other atmospheric oscillation patterns, such as Siberian high [46] and Scandinavian blocking [75].…”

“…The reduced sea ice in the Barents and White Seas [75][76][77] and associated circulation changes have been regarded as likely principal drivers behind the observed warming in the Kola Peninsula [46]. During the most recent time span considered by us (1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013), the mean annual ice cover in Barents Sea was notably small [76], and substantial areas of the Barents Sea became ice-free year round [77].…”

The accuracy of climate variability and trends across Arctic Fennoscandia in four reanalyses

“…Arctic Fennoscandia, which comprises northern areas of Norway, Sweden, Finland and the Kola Peninsula region of Russia, is located immediately south of the Barents Sea and has seen some marked changes in climate over recent decades (e.g., Førland et al, ; Irannezhad et al, ; Aalto et al, ; Marshall et al, ; Irannezhad et al, ; Kivinen et al, ; Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, ). Regional temperatures have increased, in particular during the 21st century.…”

“…Temperature rises of ~0.3–0.5 °C/decade between 1961 and 2010/2011 have been reported in northern Finland (Irannezhad et al, ; Aalto et al, ) while Marshall et al . () described a mean warming of ~2.3 °C from 10 stations in the Kola Peninsula from 1966–2015 (0.46 °C/decade). Seasonally, both these studies indicated that spring was the period with the greatest, statistically significant warming over the past 50 years.…”