Climate change in pest risk assessment: Interpretation and communication of uncertainties

Abstract

The prevailing climatic conditions found in a region are the primary determinant of the suitability of that area to support pests and diseases. Pest risk assessment is the primary biosecurity tool used to assess that suitability, but the changing climatic conditions owing to greenhouse gas emissions are rarely considered. Future changes in temperature and rainfall patterns may make the environmental suitability of a region more or less favourable for existing populations and cause populations to move to other regions where those pests and diseases may not be established. Future projections of climate change are uncertain, which makes it challenging to incorporate climate change into pest risk analysis, but aspects of human psychology can help us think about how to communicate the risks within the constraints of those uncertainties more effectively. Here we review the broad trends, magnitude and uncertainties of climate change, and the interpretation of climate change scenarios, and make recommendations for appropriate framing and communication of the future risks posed by climate change within pest risk assessments.