Climate change in northern Patagonia: critical decrease in water resources

Pessacg, Natalia Liz; Flaherty, Silvia; Solman, Silvina Alicia; Miguel, Pascual

doi:10.1007/s00704-020-03104-8

Cited by 54 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…The reduction in precipitation and the increase in reference evapotranspiration (ETo), projected for the future CCS, will aggravate the already difficult conditions of rainfed production in the Mediterranean area, raising the pressure to increase the irrigated area and its productivity [17]. Similar conclusions were obtained by Pessacg et al [18] for other climatic conditions (northern Patagonia) where rainfed forages are expected to suffer sharp production losses, associated with a high water deficit caused by reduced precipitation and increased evapotranspiration. Given this dependence on the weather conditions and the climate changes that have been already observed in Portugal [5,19], it is relevant to study climate change impacts on forage production.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 52%

Climate Change Impacts on Irrigation Requirements of Preserved Forage for Horses under Mediterranean Conditions

et al. 2020

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Pasture and forage production occupies a large part of the utilized agricultural area in Portugal, a country prone to the effects of climate change. This study aims at evaluating the impacts of climate change on forage irrigation requirements and at defining and assessing different adaptation measures. A second objective focuses on evaluating the impacts on water deficit of rainfed forages. This study was performed in a Lusitano horse stud farm located in Azambuja Municipality, Portugal. The climate change impacts on the crop irrigation requirements and crop water deficit were simulated using the soil water balance model, ISAREG. The reference period considered was 1971–2000 and the climate scenarios were the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 (2071–2100). The results show that the adaptation measure aiming at maximum production (several cuts) will increase the irrigation requirements in the different climate change scenarios between 38.4% and 67.1%. The adaptation measure aiming at reducing the water consumption (only one cut) will lead to a reduction in irrigation requirements in the different climate change scenarios, ranging between −31.1% and −64.0%. In rainfed conditions, the water deficit is substantially aggravated in the climate change scenarios.

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 52%

Climate Change Impacts on Irrigation Requirements of Preserved Forage for Horses under Mediterranean Conditions

et al. 2020

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“…The good news, however, should not divert our attention from the issues that remain, most notably, expanding hydropower, land use conversion, and the ever-looming threat of open-pit gold mining operations (Tagliaferro et al, 2013;Weinstock, 2017). In addition, a recent estimate indicates that the water yield in Patagonian watersheds will decrease considerably due to global warming (Pessacg et al, 2020).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Point source pollution influences water quality of Patagonian streams more than land cover

Williams‐Subiza

Assef

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2021

River Research & Apps

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Understanding how anthropogenic activities affect water quality is crucial for water resource management and protection. We explored the relationship between land cover variables, point sources of pollution, and water quality in north-western Patagonian streams during the summer of 2019. We measured eight water quality parameters at 103 sampling sites, and used a self-organizing map to cluster, analyse, and visualize our data. We also used boosted regression trees to model the relationship between land cover, position with respect to the nearest point source of pollution, and each water quality parameter. We found that water quality was generally good, with just 15 sites showing signs of severe anthropogenic degradation. Boosted regression trees revealed that the spatial variation in water quality was mainly driven by the presence of point sources of pollution, whereas land cover variables generally had a modest effect. The overall good condition of the streams in the study area indicates that in contrast with more impacted regions of the world, water quality management in Patagonia should focus on water quality preservation, not water quality restoration.

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“…In contrast, precipitation has decreased mainly during the autumn (−8 ± 8% decade −1 ) and winter (−4 ± 9% decade −1 ). Based on these climate trends, recent hydrological modeling in northwestern Patagonia projects an increase in the frequency of severe droughts during summer and autumn months (Aguayo et al, 2019(Aguayo et al, , 2021Pessacg et al, 2020). Lower streamflow conditions during summer are likely due to higher evapotranspiration (Ellenburg et al, 2018), and lower snow accumulation in snow-dominated regions (Barnett et al, 2005).…”

Section: Synergistic Hydrological Effects Between Climate and Lccmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Climate projections for the next decades (2020-2070) follow this trend. Recent studies have evaluated the hydrological impacts of climate projections in the region (Puelo River; 41 • S) predicting a prolongation of warm and dry conditions, seasonal changes in hydrological regimes and an increase in severe drought frequency (Aguayo et al, 2019(Aguayo et al, , 2021Pessacg et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate and Land Cover Trends Affecting Freshwater Inputs to a Fjord in Northwestern Patagonia

et al. 2021

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Freshwater inputs strongly influence oceanographic conditions in coastal systems of northwestern Patagonia (41–45°S). Nevertheless, the influence of freshwater on these systems has weakened in recent decades due to a marked decrease in precipitation. Here we evaluate potential influences of climate and land cover trends on the Puelo River (640 m3s–1), the main source of freshwater input of the Reloncaví Fjord (41.5°S). Water quality was analyzed along the Puelo River basin (six sampling points) and at the discharge site in the Reloncaví Fjord (1, 8, and 25 m depth), through six field campaigns carried out under contrasting streamflow scenarios. We also used several indicators of hydrological alteration, and cross-wavelet transform and coherence analyses to evaluate the association between the Puelo River streamflow and precipitation (1950–2019). Lastly, using the WEAP hydrological model, land cover maps (2001–2016) and burned area reconstructions (1985–2019), we simulated future land cover impacts (2030) on the hydrological processes of the Puelo River. Total Nitrogen and total phosphorus, dissolved carbon, and dissolved iron concentrations measured in the river were 3–15 times lower than those in the fjord. Multivariate analyses showed that streamflow drives the carbon composition in the river. High streamflow conditions contribute with humic and colored materials, while low streamflow conditions corresponded to higher arrival of protein-like materials from the basin. The Puelo River streamflow showed significant trends in magnitude (lower streamflow in summer and autumn), duration (minimum annual streamflow), timing (more floods in spring), and frequency (fewer prolonged floods). The land cover change (LCC) analysis indicated that more than 90% of the basin area maintained its land cover, and that the main changes were attributed to recent large wildfires. Considering these land cover trends, the hydrological simulations project a slight increase in the Puelo River streamflow mainly due to a decrease in evapotranspiration. According to previous simulations, these projections present a direction opposite to the trends forced by climate change. The combined effect of reduction in freshwater input to fiords and potential decline in water quality highlights the need for more robust data and robust analysis of the influence of climate and LCC on this river-fjord complex of northwestern Patagonia.

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Climate change in northern Patagonia: critical decrease in water resources

Cited by 54 publications

References 48 publications

Climate Change Impacts on Irrigation Requirements of Preserved Forage for Horses under Mediterranean Conditions

Climate Change Impacts on Irrigation Requirements of Preserved Forage for Horses under Mediterranean Conditions

Point source pollution influences water quality of Patagonian streams more than land cover

Climate and Land Cover Trends Affecting Freshwater Inputs to a Fjord in Northwestern Patagonia

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