Climate Change in Bosnia and Herzegovina According to Climate Scenario RCP8.5 and Possible Impact on Fruit Production

Abstract

This paper presents the results of research on possible climate change in Bosnia and Herzegovina according to the climate scenario RCP8.5 and its potential impact on fruit production. Climate change analyses are based on expected fluctuations in air temperature, precipitation and climate indices. The results indicate pronounced climate change, which refers to an increase in annual temperature to 5 °C, and a decrease in annual precipitation of up to 30% and in the summer season (June, July, and August) and up to 40% by the end of the XXI century. In addition, an increase in the number of summer days and a decrease in the number of days with the appearance of snow can be expected. Reducing the number of days with snow and snow cover can cause a decrease in underground aquifers with water during the winter and spring seasons. These changes can have a serious impact on the problem of drought and water deficit, which can have direct consequences for the agricultural sector in Bosnia and Herzegovina, especially for fruit production. These findings show that fundamental changes in agriculture and an approach to land treatment and water resources management, as well as fruit production planning in changed climatic conditions, are needed.

Upgrading Maize Cultivation in Bosnia and Herzegovina from Rainfed to Irrigated Systems: Use of Remote Sensing Data and the Dual Crop Coefficient Approach to Estimate Evapotranspiration

“…These include an increase of annual temperatures by 5 °C and a decrease of annual precipitation of up to 30%, particularly during the summer months. Furthermore, a decrease of the number of days with snowfall is anticipated [4]. These changes can have a serious impact on the problem of drought and water deficit [5].…”

Upgrading Maize Cultivation in Bosnia and Herzegovina from Rainfed to Irrigated Systems: Use of Remote Sensing Data and the Dual Crop Coefficient Approach to Estimate Evapotranspiration

“…These include an increase in annual temperatures by 5 °C and a decrease in annual precipitation of up to 30%, particularly during the summer months (June, July, and August) by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, a decrease in the number of days with snowfall is anticipated [4]. These changes can have a serious impact on the problems of drought and water deficit [5].…”

Factibility of growing basil as an alternative crop for adaptation to climate change in Bosnia and Herzegovina

“…In addition to the increase in temperature, climate change also causes a decrease in summer rainfall amounts, severe drought, and an increase in the number of days with hail outbreaks (Dejanovic et al, 2019). Bosnia and Herzegovina has a similar climate, and in the future, a larger number of extreme climate events are expected (Cadro et al, 2018;Trbic et al, 2021). In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the future impacts of climate change include an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events, temperature rise, lack of precipitation, increase in flooding, changing agricultural landscapes, involving crop yield failure, and changes in habitat composition and species distribution, richness, and diversity (Vucijak et al, 2014).…”