Climate change in arid environments: revisiting the past to understand the future

Lioubimtseva, Elena

doi:10.1191/0309133304pp422oa

Cited by 78 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 59 publications

(101 reference statements)

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“…in this arid environment is governed by its topography (Lioubimtseva, 2004). The latitudinal and longitudinal values of the 27 observed data stations in Saudi Arabia are also marked (red dots) with numbers.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The present-day climate of the desert and semi-desert areas is known to have changed on various temporal (interannual, interdecadal, multidecadal and interseasonal) and spatial scales (particularly for rainfall), which represents a major challenge for the climate forecasting and modelling of these climatic variables in these areas (Lioubimtseva, 2004). Generally, the climate of the Arabian Peninsula is characterized by hot dry summers and mild wet winters, as with the Mediterranean climate (ElSabbagh, 1982;Ragab and Prudhomme, 2000).…”

Section: Almazroui Et Almentioning

confidence: 99%

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Recent climate change in the Arabian Peninsula: annual rainfall and temperature analysis of Saudi Arabia for 1978–2009

Almazroui

Islam

Athar

et al. 2012

Intl Journal of Climatology

271

204

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ABSTRACT:The rainfall and temperature climatology over the Arabian Peninsula are analysed on an annual basis using various gridded datasets. For Saudi Arabia, the area of which represents almost 80% of the Peninsula, the climatic datasets from its 27 ground observations are analysed for the period 1978-2009, with additional gridded datasets used to describe the observed state and change of the present climate. The gridded datasets represent well the very dry (40-80 mm) area over the world's largest sand desert (Rub Al-Khali), the dry (80-150 mm) area over middle-to-north of Saudi Arabia, and the wettest (>150 mm) region in the southwest of the Peninsula. The annual temperature is relatively high (24-27°C) in the middle-to-south of the Peninsula and low (<21°C) in the northwest and southwest. The highest temperature (>27°C) is obtained over the Rub Al-Khali. Over Saudi Arabia, the observed annual rainfall showed a significant decreasing trend (47.8 mm per decade) in the last half of the analysis period, with a relatively large interannual variability, while the maximum, mean and minimum temperatures have increased significantly at a rate of 0.71, 0.60, and 0.48°C per decade, respectively. This information is invaluable to consider in any climate impact assessment studies in Saudi Arabia.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Almazroui Et Almentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent climate change in the Arabian Peninsula: annual rainfall and temperature analysis of Saudi Arabia for 1978–2009

Almazroui

Islam

Athar

et al. 2012

Intl Journal of Climatology

271

204

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“…Knowledge and prediction of wet and dry spell probability occurrence, rainfall variability, shifts, and trends are critical when considering the impact of the climate change and can be estimated with reliability from reasonably available records. Wet and dry sequences are treated by different authors (Feyerhem and Bark 1965;Lioubimtseva 2004;Şen 2009;Almazroui et al 2012). …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rainfall analysis in the contest of climate change for Jeddah area, Western Saudi Arabia

Subyani

Hajjar

2016

Arab J Geosci

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The increase in the greenhouse gas emission has had a severe impact on global climate change and is bound to affect the weather patterns worldwide. This climate change impacts are among the future significant effects on any society. Rainfall levels are drastically increasing with flash floods in some places and long periods of droughts in others, especially in arid regions. These extreme events are causes of interactions concerning environmental, socio-economic, and cultural life and their implementation. This paper presents the detailed features of dry and wet spell durations and rainfall intensity series available on daily basis for the Jeddah area, Western Saudi Arabia. It also presents significant articles for combating the climate change impacts on this area. Results show trend changes in dry and wet spell durations and rainfall amount on daily, monthly, and annual time series. Three rain seasons were proposed in this investigation: high rain, low rain, and dry seasons. It shows that the overall average dry spell durations is about 80 continuous days while the average wet spell durations is 1.39 days with an average rainfall intensity of 8.2 mm/day. Annual and seasonal autorun analyses confirm that the rainy seasons are tending to have more intense rainfall while the seasons are becoming drier.This study would help decision makers in future for water resources management and flood risk analysis.Keywords Climate change . Dry and wet spell . Daily rainfall . Jeddah . Saudi Arabia IntroductionIn arid regions environments, knowledge of the spatial and temporal variability, shifts, and trends of rainfall are important for water resources and planning under the global warming effects. This variability causes an impact on human life and cultural activities. The climate change causes an average temperature increase in the troposphere (Crutzen and Zimmermann 1991). Even 1°C increase in the global temperature leads to about 250 to 300 km climate belt shifts from the equator towards the Polar Regions (Şen 2009). According to the IPCC (2007) report, until the end of the twenty-first century, the global temperature increase is expected to reach about 3.5 to 5°C, which implies additional increases in the frequency and amount of different weather events leading to extraordinary hydrological phenomena as floods, droughts, water shortages, or stresses as well as on the agricultural productivity (Artlert et al. 2013).Several studies were carried out on the analysis of rainfall variability and distribution in time as well as in space throughout the world. For instance, Akinremi et al. (2001) reported that there has been a significant increase in rainfall events by 29 % in Canadian prairies. Şen (2009) presented a methodology to predict future monthly rainfall amounts and surface runoff volumes on decadal basis from 2000 to 2050 in Istanbul (Turkey) and, accordingly, presented interpretation of monthly dry and wet periods. Goyal (2014) In Saudi Arabia, rainfall can be described as being little and irregular yet ver...

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“…Wet and dry sequences are treated by different authors (Lioubimtseva 2004;Şen 2009;Almazroui 2011). Subyani and Hajjar (2014) present detailed features of dry and wet spell durations and rainfall intensity series available (1971-2012) on daily basis for the Jeddah area, in the western Saudi Arabia.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

IDF curves and daily rainfall generation for Al-Madinah city, western Saudi Arabia

Subyani

Al-Amri

2015

Arab J Geosci

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Due to the increase in global warming and climate change impact, especially in urban arid regions, the intensityduration-frequency (IDF) curves and rainfall generation procedures become essential for storm design and hydraulic structures dimensioning for future planning and management. Al-Madinah, the second holiest city for all Muslims, is located in the western part of Saudi Arabia. This city needs special attention for hydrologic and hydraulic structure projects due to highly developed and rapid expansion in land use. The purpose of this study is to develop an empirical formula from IDF curves, which have been generated from 43-year records for Al-Madinah rainfall station. The absence of some daily rainfall records led to the application of the reduction method to disaggregate daily rainfall to hourly time series for developing suitable IDF curves. The formula is derived using the analysis of the best fit of Gumbel and log-Pearson Type III frequency methods. An average empirical formula can be used for predicting any return period with a given storm duration for Al-Madinah area. Generating wet, dry, and rainfall intensities are also investigated using autorun analysis on a daily time step. The results show that the dry spell continues for 71 days while the wet spell is about 1.58 days on the average based on the rainfall intensity threshold of 5.9 mm/day. Based on the goodness of fit for the dry and wet spells and the rainfall intensities, the daily rainfall sequences can be generated for any duration, which is adopted here as for the next 43 years.

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Climate change in arid environments: revisiting the past to understand the future

Cited by 78 publications

References 59 publications

Recent climate change in the Arabian Peninsula: annual rainfall and temperature analysis of Saudi Arabia for 1978–2009

Recent climate change in the Arabian Peninsula: annual rainfall and temperature analysis of Saudi Arabia for 1978–2009

Rainfall analysis in the contest of climate change for Jeddah area, Western Saudi Arabia

IDF curves and daily rainfall generation for Al-Madinah city, western Saudi Arabia

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