Climate Change Implications for Flexible Pavement Design and Performance in Southern Canada

Abstract

Two types of analysis were conducted to examine the impacts of midcentury scenarios of anthropogenic climate change on flexible pavement infrastructure in southern Canada. An analysis of deterioration-relevant climate indicators at 17 southern Canadian sites revealed that over the next 50 years low temperature cracking will become less problematic, structures will freeze later and thaw earlier with correspondingly shorter freeze season lengths, and higher extreme in-service pavement temperatures will raise the potential for rutting. Pavement performance simulations conducted using the mechanistic-empirical pavement design guide and data from the Canadian long term pavement performance program for six of these sites also suggest that rutting issues will be exacerbated by climate change and that maintenance, rehabilitation, or reconstruction will be required earlier in the design life. While the simulated effect of climate change was found to be modest, both in absolute terms and relative to variability in pavement structure and baseline traffic loads, pavement engineers would benefit by incorporating longer time series of weather and climate in their designs. Although the analysis was conducted for southern Canada, many of the findings and impacts may be similar for the northern United States.

Distress Identification, Cost Analysis and Pavement Temperature Prediction for the Long-Term Pavement Performance for Western Australia

“…Similarly, Mills, Tighe, Andrey, Smith, and Huen [7] analyzed the effect of temperature variation for flexible pavement design, and recommended that pavement engineers should take into consideration to the temperature variations during pavement design. Maintenance and rehabilitation (M&R) to the pavement distress should require earlier in the design life.…”

“…While accurately determine insitu strength characteristics of flexible pavement are necessary to identify the type of pavement distress and also to predict the temperature. The majority of previously published research either on distress identification or pavement temperature has consisted predicting the annual maximum or minimum pavement temperature to recommend a suitable asphalt performance grade [4]- [7]. However, the predict of pavement temperature has not be related to the pavement distress type, identification and characterization of asphalt concrete surfaced pavement so that cost analysis of individual pavement distress can be included and also analyzed.…”

Pragmatism, projections, priorities, plans and politics in Prince George: Adapting to climate change in a Canadian community.

“…The profession is focused on applying scientific knowledge to practical problems to manage risk and protect public safety (APEGBC 2010;NSPE 2013). Municipal engineering also relates closely to impacts associated with: water resources; extreme events; and transportation, building and utilities infrastructure (Crabbe and Robin 2006;Garbecht and Piechota 2006;Mills et al 2009). …”

“…There has been a large number of changes that have occurred in and around Prince George that may be partially attributable to climate change, including a large mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) epidemic (BCMOE 2008;Kurz et al 2008), recent flooding events (Milly et al 2002;NHC 2009) and impacts to transportation infrastructure (Dyer 2006;Mills et al 2009). These events have contributed to a high level of local knowledge, public awareness and political support for adaptation.…”

“…Transportation infrastructure: The impacts of extreme weather, increased freeze-thaw cycles, and precipitation and temperature changes are affecting roads and other transportation infrastructure in Prince George (Dyer 2006). Through continued funding the City is examining strategies to improve road monitoring, maintenance and explore alternative designs (Mills et al 2009). There is an opportunity to address mitigation and adaptation concerns concurrently by building fewer but more resilient roads.…”