Climate Change Impacts on Yields and Soil Carbon in Row Crop Dryland Agriculture

Robertson, Andy; Zhang, Yao; Sherrod, Lucretia A.; Rosenzweig, Steven T.; Li, Ma; Ahuja, Lajpat R.; Schipanski, Meagan

doi:10.2134/jeq2017.08.0309

Cited by 36 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 89 publications

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“…Climate changes in the High Plains, particularly rising temperatures and more erratic precipitation, threaten the profitability and productivity of dryland agriculture in the region [42]. However, Robertson et al [43] found that intensified systems maintain higher soil carbon stocks and annualized crop production relative to wheat-fallow under multiple future climate scenarios, suggesting that intensification may enhance the resilience of dryland systems to climate change.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Landscape-scale cropping changes in the High Plains: economic and environmental implications

Rosenzweig

Schipanski

2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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A global transformation in semi-arid cropping systems is occurring as dryland (non-irrigated) farmers in semi-arid regions shift from crop rotations reliant on year-long bare fallows, called summer fallow, to more intensively cropped systems. Understanding the rate of cropping system intensification at the landscape scale is critical to estimating the economic and environmental implications of this movement. Here, we use high-resolution satellite data to quantify dryland cropping patterns from 2008 to 2016 in the US High Plains. We use these estimates to scale up our previous field-level research in this region on soil carbon, herbicide use, yields, and profitability. Over the nine year study period, the High Plains witnessed a profound shift in cropping systems, as the historically dominant wheatfallow system was replaced by more intensified rotations as the dominant systems by land area. Out of the 4 million hectares of non-irrigated cropland in the study area, this shift coincided with a 0.5 million-hectare decline in summer fallow and a concurrent increase in alternative (non-wheat) crops. We estimate that, from 2008 to 2016, these patterns resulted in a 0.53 Tg (9%) increase in annual grain production, 80 million USD (10%) increase in annual net farm operating income, substantial reductions in herbicide use, and an increase in C sequestration that corresponds to greenhouse gas reductions of 0.32 million metric tons of CO 2 equivalents per year (MMTCO 2 e yr −1 ). We project each of these implications to a scenario of potential maximum 100% intensification and estimate that, relative to 2016 levels, herbicide use would be reduced by more than half, grain production would increase by 25%, net operating income would increase by 223 million USD (26%), and greenhouse gases would be reduced by an additional 0.8 MMTCO 2 e yr −1 . The scale of cropping intensification in the High Plains and its environmental and economic impacts has important implications for other regions undergoing similar transformations, and for policy that can either support or hinder these shifts toward more sustainable cropping systems.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Landscape-scale cropping changes in the High Plains: economic and environmental implications

Rosenzweig

Schipanski

2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…Since real systems fail to reflect disciplinary boundaries, this has a great potential to improve decision-making. As has been done in previous work on the Great Plains region (e.g., Paustian et al 1995;Robertson et al 2017), the integration of these models will allow consideration of not only the effect of management but also the impact of climate change. However, representing interrelated processes through integrated modeling is not inherently better than representing those processes through a single built-forpurpose interdisciplinary model.…”

Section: Integratedmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As a result of the small scales at which soil processes operate, and the difficulty in assessing chemical and biological pathways, soil is often neglected in agricultural modeling. As has been done in previous work on the Great Plains region (e.g., Paustian et al 1995;Robertson et al 2017), the integration of these models will allow consideration of not only the effect of management but also the impact of climate change.…”

Section: Integratedmentioning

confidence: 99%

Transition Pathways to Sustainable Agricultural Water Management: A Review of Integrated Modeling Approaches

Haacker

Sharda

Cano

et al. 2019

J American Water Resour Assoc

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Agricultural water management (AWM) is an interdisciplinary concern, cutting across traditional domains such as agronomy, climatology, geology, economics, and sociology. Each of these disciplines has developed numerous process‐based and empirical models for AWM. However, models that simulate all major hydrologic, water quality, and crop growth processes in agricultural systems are still lacking. As computers become more powerful, more researchers are choosing to integrate existing models to account for these major processes rather than building new cross‐disciplinary models. Model integration carries the hope that, as in a real system, the sum of the model will be greater than the parts. However, models based upon simplified and unrealistic assumptions of physical or empirical processes can generate misleading results which are not useful for informing policy. In this article, we use literature and case studies from the High Plains Aquifer and Southeastern United States regions to elucidate the challenges and opportunities associated with integrated modeling for AWM and recommend conditions in which to use integrated models. Additionally, we examine the potential contributions of integrated modeling to AWM — the actual practice of conserving water while maximizing productivity. Editor's note: This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.

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“…Elimination of fallow and N fertilizer management had the greatest impact on SOC stocks in the top soil as of 2045 in the Northern Great Plains. Robertson et al (2018) used long-term experimental data and the DayCent process-based model for three sites with various climates and soil conditions to examine the impacts of two climate change scenarios (moderate warming, RCP4.5; and high warming, RCP8.5) on yields and soil C dynamics in row crops in the High Plains of Colorado. They predicted a dryland yield decline for all crops and up to 50% for wheat, with small changes after 2050 under RCP4.5 and continued losses to 2100 under RCP8.5.…”

Section: Process-based Models To Evaluate Soil Organic Carbon Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Measurements and Models to Identify Agroecosystem Practices That Enhance Soil Organic Carbon under Changing Climate

Gollany¹,

Venterea

2018

J of Env Quality

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Adapting to the anticipated impacts of climate change is a pressing issue facing agriculture, as precipitation and temperature changes are expected to have major effects on agricultural production in many regions of the world. These changes will also affect soil organic matter decomposition and associated stocks of soil organic C (SOC), which have the potential to feed back to climate change and affect agroecosystem resiliency. This special section brings together multiple efforts to assess effects of climate change on SOC stocks around the globe in grassland, pasture, and crop agroecosystems under varying management practices. The overall goal of these efforts is to identify optimum practices to enhance SOC accumulation. In this article, we summarize the highlights of these papers and assess their broader implications for future research to enhance agroecosystem SOC accumulation and resiliency to climate change. Fourteen of the twenty contributions apply dynamic process-based models to assess climate and/or long-term management impacts on SOC stocks, and four papers use statistical SOC models across landscapes or regions. Also included are one meta-analysis and one longterm study. The models applied in this collection performed well when reliable input data were available, underlining the usefulness of modeling efforts to inform management decisions that enhance SOC stocks. Overall, the findings confirm that most agroecosystems have the potential to store SOC through improved management. However, this will be challenging, particularly for dryland agriculture, unless crop yield and crop biomass increase under projected climate change.

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Climate Change Impacts on Yields and Soil Carbon in Row Crop Dryland Agriculture

Cited by 36 publications

References 89 publications

Landscape-scale cropping changes in the High Plains: economic and environmental implications

Landscape-scale cropping changes in the High Plains: economic and environmental implications

Transition Pathways to Sustainable Agricultural Water Management: A Review of Integrated Modeling Approaches

Measurements and Models to Identify Agroecosystem Practices That Enhance Soil Organic Carbon under Changing Climate

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