Climate change impacts on worldwide ecological niche and invasive potential of Sternochetus mangiferae

Abstract

BACKGROUNDPresent climate studies on invasive species imply that climate change will alter the habitat suitability of invasive pests, especially given the projected rise in average global temperatures by the end of 2100. However, globally, limited information exists on the habitat suitability of the mango stone weevil, Sternochetus mangiferae Fabricius, which impedes the development of early detection and preventive measures. Herein, we used the MaxEnt model to estimate the potential global geographical distribution of S. mangiferae.RESULTSOur results revealed that thermal conditions played a significant role in explaining the invasion risk of S. mangiferae. Habitat suitability was found in all continents, except Antarctica. Under the present condition, habitat suitability covered 5.67 × 107 km2. For ssp126, habitat suitability will decrease from the 2060s (5.58 × 107 km2) and 2080s (5.57 × 107 km2). Similarly, under ssp585, suitable areas will decrease from 5.62 × 107 to 5.51 × 107 km2 for the 2060s and 2080s, respectively.CONCLUSIONOur study has estimated variability in the habitat suitability of S. mangiferae which establishes a foundation for determining global risk assessment and response plans for the pest. This study also identifies areas where the pest is inherently more vulnerable to the impacts of changing climates and enables forecasting of its potential distribution in a dynamic world. © 2024 The Author(s). Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.