Climate change impacts on wind energy generation in Ireland

Abstract

An ensemble of high‐resolution regional climate model simulation data is used to examine the impacts of climate change on offshore and onshore wind energy generation in Ireland. Two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) are analysed for the mid‐term (2041–2060) and the long‐term (2081–2100) future. Wind energy is projected to decrease (≤2%) overall in future climate scenarios. Changes are evident by mid‐century and are more pronounced by late 21st century, particularly for RCP 8.5 offshore. Seasonally, wind energy is projected to decrease by less than 6% in summer and to increase slightly in winter (up to 1.1%). The distinct changes in different parts of the power curve, presented here for the first time, show a reversed pattern of duration at certain levels of the power curve. In summer, there is an increase of low‐power and a decrease of high‐power generation, whereas during winter, there is a projected increase in the time spent at high power. This could lead to diverse consequences for system operators depending on the season. The impacts of climate change on the duration and frequency of long periods (longer than 24 h) of low‐/high‐power wind energy events in Ireland are also presented. The frequency of low‐power events is projected to increase slightly, especially during summer. Onshore and offshore events are considered separately, demonstrating the complementarity of developing both onshore and offshore wind farms for future energy systems. Regional analysis highlights the benefit of developing a geographically dispersed wind farm network incorporating different local wind conditions.

Can synoptic drivers explain rotor‐area wind conditions and predict energy output?

“…Although there is a close connection between hub‐height wind speed and synoptic‐scale weather systems, 1,2 less well explored is whether these synoptic systems also have characteristic patterns of turbulence, stability, and shear across the rotor, although such patterns are plausible given research linking synoptic‐scale systems to variations in the surface boundary layer 13,14 . If patterns of turbulence, stability, and shear can be identified at the synoptic scale, they may help to improve estimates of wind energy output that typically rely on hub‐height wind speed alone, as well as the climate model‐derived wind speeds used for assessments of how seasonal climate variability 15,16 and long‐term climate change 17,18 may affect wind energy production.…”