Climate change impacts on global agriculture

Abstract

Based on predicted changes in the magnitude and distribution of global precipitation, temperature and river flow under the IPCC SRES A1B and A2 scenarios, this study assesses the potential impacts of climate change and CO 2 fertilization on global agriculture. The analysis uses the new version of the GTAP-W model, which distinguishes between rainfed and irrigated agriculture and implements water as an explicit factor of production for irrigated agriculture. Future climate change is likely to modify regional water endowments and soil moisture. As a consequence, the distribution of harvested land would change, modifying production and international trade patterns. The results suggest that a partial analysis of the main factors through which climate change will affect agricultural productivity lead to different outcomes. Our results show that global food production, welfare and GDP fall in the two time periods and SRES scenarios. Higher food prices are expected. Independently of the SRES scenario, expected losses in welfare are marked in the long term. They are larger under the SRES A2 scenario for the 2020s and under the SRES A1B scenario for the 2050s. The results show that countries are not only influenced by regional climate change, but also by climate-induced changes in competitiveness.

Climate change, food security, and livelihoods in sub-Saharan Africa

“…In these analyses, theoretical adaptations are introduced in order to estimate the degree to which impacts might be moderated by widespread adjustments in crops or land use. For instance, assuming the amount of irrigated land in sub-Saharan Africa were doubled by 2050 (keeping total crop area constant), cereal production would increase by 5 % (Calzadilla et al 2010). Other research has shown that aggregated mean crop yields are expected to decrease by 6-24 % in sub-Saharan Africa, depending on the climate scenario and the type of crop management (e.g., single cropping vs. sequential cropping) used by farmers (Waha et al 2013).…”

Economic Analysis of Climate Change Best Management Practices in Vermont Agriculture

“…However, once again some studies [15,16] question the real world benefits of CO2 fertilization, and call into question the results of earlier economic impact studies. Calzadilla [22] found that global food production and GDP will fall as a result of climate change. In the United States, the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture have been projected to likely be negative [23].…”

Adaptation Measures in the EU: Policies, Costs, and Economic Assessment ('Climate Proofing' of Key EU Policies)

“…Since European producers are by tendency less harmed by climate change and therefore irrigation costs, one may expect that world prices increase due to climate change more than production costs in Europe (Anderson and Valenzuela 2011;Calzadilla et al 2010). This would generally give the opportunity to European farmers to pass through additional irrigation costs.…”