Climate change impacts on forest landscapes along the Canadian southern boreal forest transition zone

Boulanger, Yan; Price, David T.; Cyr, Dominic; McGarrigle, Elizabeth; Rammer, Werner; Sainte-Marie, Guillaume; Beaudoin, A.; Guindon, Luc; Mansuy, Nicolas

doi:10.1007/s10980-016-0421-7

Cited by 132 publications

(159 citation statements)

References 78 publications

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“…Although previous studies have attempted to assess the cumulative impacts of climate‐related drivers of change on the structure of boreal forest landscapes (e.g. Boulanger, Taylor, et al., ; James et al., ; Shuman et al., ), this study is the first to provide an assessment of the relative importance of major stand‐ and landscape‐scale drivers along a wide longitudinal transect across Canada's southern boreal forest. Of course, there are several caveats.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Dynamic growth parameters, as well as static growth‐ and mortality curve shape parameters used in the Biomass Succession extension, were validated under baseline climate conditions by: (1) assessing the realism of emerging successional pathways using pixel‐scale simulations; and (2) comparing species‐specific biomasses at time t = 0 with the actual biomass estimated from NFI forest cover maps (Beaudoin et al., ; Boulanger, Taylor, et al., ; Appendix and ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As in Boulanger, Taylor, et al. (), baseline and future fire regime parameters within each fire region were calibrated according to models developed by Boulanger et al. () and further updated for different RCP scenarios (Gauthier, Bernier, Boulanger, et al., ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Stand‐level drivers most important in determining boreal forest response to climate change

et al. 2017

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Forest ecosystems contain several climate‐sensitive drivers that respond differentially to changes in climate and climate variability. For example, growth and regeneration processes are “stand‐scale” drivers, while natural disturbances operate at “landscape scale”. The relative contributions of these different scale drivers of change in ecosystems create great uncertainty when simulating potential responses of a forest to changes in climate. Here, we assess those contributions, along with harvesting effects, on biomass (both total and of individual species) in the southern boreal forest of Canada under three climate scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Projections were performed for three future 30‐year time periods, in four study regions located on an east–west transect, using a forest landscape model (LANDIS‐II), parameterized using a forest patch model (PICUS). Projected future impacts were assessed for each driver of change, and found to vary greatly among regions, species, future period and forcing scenarios. Fire, and stand‐scale climate‐induced impacts, had the strongest effects on forest vegetation, as well as on total and species’ biomass under most RCP scenarios, but the largest impacts occurred mostly after 2050, particularly with the RCP 8.5 scenario. The relative importance and trends in species‐specific impacts varied, both spatially and according to the different RCP scenarios. Western regions were generally more sensitive to stand‐scale climate‐induced changes, whereas eastern regions were more sensitive to changes in fire regime. Our study also highlights the importance of considering the prevalence of species‐level functional traits when assessing the sensitivity of forest landscapes to a given driver of change in the context of increasing anthropogenic climate forcing. Synthesis. Increases in fire activity, and direct impacts of climate change on forest growth and regeneration, will be the most important drivers of future changes in southern boreal forest landscapes.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Stand‐level drivers most important in determining boreal forest response to climate change

et al. 2017

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“…These results provide evidence that climate change effects may take considerable time to unfold, and that disturbance and successional dynamics play a critical role in determining climate impacts. Boulanger et al (2016) projected the effects of climate change on the composition and productivity of four landscapes at the southern boreal forest transition zone in Canada. They used LANDIS-II informed by a forest patch model (PICUS).…”

Section: Model Comparison and Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Sensitivity analyses conducted using a mechanistic model based on physiology first principles suggest that increased respiration loads at very high temperatures more than offset biomass increases predicted under more moderately increased temperatures, which may partially explain these discrepancies. Biomass reduction in boreal regions may also be partially due a lack of temperate species adapted to warmer climates and stronger fire disturbance (Boulanger et al 2016). They concluded conservation and forest management planning within the southern boreal transition zone should consider both disturbance-and climate-induced changes in forest communities.…”

Section: Model Comparison and Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling forest landscapes in a changing climate: theory and application

Gustafson

Lischke

2017

Landscape Ecol

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Current and projected cumulative impacts of fire, drought, and insects on timber volumes across Canada

Boucher

Boulanger

Aubin

et al. 2018

Ecological Applications

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Canada's forests are shaped by disturbances such as fire, insect outbreaks, and droughts that often overlap in time and space. The resulting cumulative disturbance risks and potential impacts on forests are generally not well accounted for by models used to predict future impacts of disturbances on forest. This study aims at projecting future cumulative effects of four main natural disturbances, fire, mountain pine beetle, spruce budworm and drought, on timber volumes across Canada's forests using an approach that accounts for potential overlap among disturbances. Available predictive models for the four natural disturbances were used to project timber volumes at risk under aggressive climate forcing up to 2100. Projections applied to the current vegetation suggest increases of volumes at risk related to fire, mountain pine beetle, and drought over time in many regions of Canada, but a decrease of the volume at risk related to spruce budworm. When disturbance effects are accumulated, important changes in volumes at risk are projected to occur as early as 2011-2041, particularly in central and eastern Canada. In our last simulation period covering 2071-2100, nearly all timber volumes in most of Canada's forest regions could be at risk of being affected by at least one of the four natural disturbances considered in our analysis, a six-fold increase relative to the baseline period (1981-2010). Tree species particularly vulnerable to specific disturbances (e.g., trembling aspen to drought) could suffer disproportionate increases in their volume at risk with potential impacts on forest composition. By 2100, estimated wood volumes not considered to be at risk could be lower than current annual timber harvests in central and eastern Canada. Current level of harvesting could thus be difficult to maintain without the implementation of adaptation measures to cope with these disturbances.

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Climate change impacts on forest landscapes along the Canadian southern boreal forest transition zone

Cited by 132 publications

References 78 publications

Stand‐level drivers most important in determining boreal forest response to climate change

Stand‐level drivers most important in determining boreal forest response to climate change

Modeling forest landscapes in a changing climate: theory and application

Current and projected cumulative impacts of fire, drought, and insects on timber volumes across Canada

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