Climate change impacts on crop yield, soil water balance and nitrate leaching in the semiarid and humid regions of Canada

Abstract

The impact of climate change on agricultural systems is a major concern as it can have a significant effect on the world food supply. The objective of this study was to evaluate climate change impacts on crop production and nitrate leaching in two distinct climatic zones in Canada. Spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) was selected for the semiarid regions of Western Canada (Swift Current, SK) and maize (Zea mays L.) was chosen for the more humid regions of central Canada (Woodslee, ON). Climate scenarios were based upon simulations from a Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and crop simulations were conducted using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model. Compared to the baseline climate scenario, wheat yields increased by 8, 8, 11, 15%, whereas maize yields decreased by 15, 25, 22, 41% under RCP4.5 2050s (2041–2070), RCP4.5 2080s (2071–2100), RCP8.5 2050s and RCP8.5 2080s scenarios, respectively. Annual nitrate leaching increased by 19, 57, 73, 129% at Swift Current and by 84, 117, 208, 317% at Woodslee under the four scenarios, respectively. Adaptation measures suggested that fertilizer N rate for spring wheat should be increased to 80–100 kg N ha-1 to obtain optimal yields although this will result in an additional risk of 5–8 kg N ha-1 nitrate leaching at Swift Current. The fertilizer N rate of 150 kg N ha-1 was found to be suitable for high maize yields at Woodslee. New wheat and maize cultivars with long growing seasons would enable crop growth to match the phenological stage and hence maintain high crop yields to adapt to increased temperatures in the future.

Studies on Crop Yields and Their Extreme Value Analysis over India

“…Crop yields are sensitive to climate variations (e.g., [1][2][3]. It is undisputed truth that the climate change shows impact on the crop yields [4]. An increase of 1 to 2 • C temperature during the crop growing period causes crop dehydration and greatly reduces the grain production in regions such as the North China Plain, Indo-Gangetic Plains and the corn belt of the United States [5].…”

Савремене Климатске Промјене На Подручју Семберије − Утицаји На Аграрну Производњу

“…Given the stated, the main aim of this study is to analyze recent climate change in the Semberija region and to investigate the effects of the determined climate change patterns on agricultural production, primarily on the production of corn, the most important crop over this area, and for which studies (Deryng et al, 2016;He et al, 2018;Knox et al, 2016;Olesen et al, 2011;etc. ) found that it will be much more vulnerable to climate change in relation to other crops.…”

“…Потенцијални утицаји климатских промјена на приносе пољопривредних култура постају све важније питање, које изазива велику забринутост у свијету посљедњих деценија због уочених негативних утицаја на производњу усјева и сигурност снабдијевања човјечанства храном (He et al, 2018;Zhang, Zhao, Chen, Guo, & Wang, 2015). Бројне студије истраживале су ефекте климатских промјена на производњу усјева (Cai, Wang, & Laurent, 2009;Ceglar & Kajfež-Bogataj, 2012;Deryng, Conway, Ramankutty, Price, & Warren, 2016;He et al, 2018;Kang, Khan, & Ma, 2009;Knox, Daccache, Hess, & Haro, 2016;Lobell & Gourdji, 2012;Matiu, Ankerst, & Menzel, 2017;Olesen et al, 2011;Rosenzweig et al, 2014;Ummenhofer et al, 2015;Zhang et al, 2015). Ипак, у Босни и Херцеговини ово питање још је недовољно истражено.…”

“…The potential impacts of climate change on crop yields are becoming an increasingly important issue, which has been a source of great concern in the world in recent decades due to the observed negative effects on crop production and the security of global food supply (He et al, 2018;Zhang, Zhao, Chen, Guo, & Wang, 2015). Numerous studies have analyzed the effects of climate change on crop production (Cai, Wang, & Laurent, 2009;Ceglar & Kajfež-Bogataj, 2012;Deryng, Conway, Ramankutty, Price, & Warren, 2016;He et al, 2018;Kang, Khan, & Ma, 2009;Knox, Daccache, Hess, & Haro, 2016;Lobell & Gourdji, 2012;Matiu, Ankerst, & Menzel, 2017;Olesen et al, 2011;Rosenzweig et al, 2014;Ummenhofer et al, 2015;Zhang et al, 2015). However, in Bosnia and Herzegovina, this issue has not yet been sufficiently researched.…”

“…Дакле, главни циљ ове студије је да се анализирају савремене климатске промјене на подручју Семберије и да се размотре ефекти утврђених образаца промјена климе на аграрну производњу, првенствено на производњу кукуруза, најважније културе на овом подручју, а за коју су истраживања (Deryng et al, 2016;He et al, 2018;Knox et al, 2016;Olesen et al, 2011; и др.) показала да ће у односу на друге културе бити знатно угроженија промјенама климе.…”