Climate change impacts on crop yields

Thomas, Timothy S.; Dorosh, Paul A.; Robertson, Richard D.

doi:10.2499/9780896296916_04

Cited by 9 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…The maize yield are projected to increase in some areas but decrease in others. The findings at country level that maize yield will increase under climate change corroborate with previous studies (Thornton et al, 2009;Araya et al, 2015;Muluneh et al, 2015;Alemayehu and Bewket, 2016;Thomas et al, 2019). We showed these positive climate change effects on maize yields are explained by strong increases in rainfall in parts of the country, which will increase the agronomic conditions for maize cultivation compared to current levels, especially in the highlands.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Quantifying Agroforestry Yield Buffering Potential Under Climate Change in the Smallholder Maize Farming Systems of Ethiopia

2021

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Agroforestry is a promising adaptation measure for climate change, especially for low external inputs smallholder maize farming systems. However, due to its long-term nature and heterogeneity across farms and landscapes, it is difficult to quantitatively evaluate its contribution in building the resilience of farming systems to climate change over large areas. In this study, we developed an approach to simulate and emulate the shading, micro-climate regulation and biomass effects of multi-purpose trees agroforestry system on maize yields using APSIM, taking Ethiopia as a case study. Applying the model to simulate climate change impacts showed that at national level, maize yield will increase by 7.5 and 3.1 % by 2050 under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. This projected increase in national-level maize yield is driven by maize yield increases in six administrative zones whereas yield losses are expected in other five zones (mean of −6.8% for RCP2.6 and −11.7% for RCP8.5), with yields in the other four zones remaining stable overtime. Applying the emulated agroforestry leads to increase in maize yield under current and future climatic conditions compared to maize monocultures, particularly in regions for which yield losses under climate change are expected. A 10% agroforestry shade will reduce maize yield losses by 6.9% (RCP2.6) and 4.2 % (RCP8.5) while 20% shade will reduce maize yield losses by 11.5% (RCP2.6) and 11% (RCP8.5) for projected loss zones. Overall, our results show quantitatively that agroforestry buffers yield losses for areas projected to have yield losses under climate change in Ethiopia, and therefore should be part of building climate-resilient agricultural systems.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Quantifying Agroforestry Yield Buffering Potential Under Climate Change in the Smallholder Maize Farming Systems of Ethiopia

2021

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“…Finally, rainfall was associated with maize, rice, or cassava yields in any state. Many other studies have reported the similar finding of the climate-crops relationships in China (Zhang et al 2016;Gao et al 2019;Ding et al 2020), Southern Africa (Mafongoya et al 2017;Nhamo et al 2019) and East African countries (Sridharan et al 2019;Thomas et al 2019). These results dovetail with results from previous research.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 81%

Climate Change Adaptation Options in Farming Communities of Selected Nigerian Ecological Zones

Ayanlade

Oluwatimilehin

Oladimeji

et al. 2021

African Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation

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This chapter examines the impacts of climate change on three tropical crops and assesses the climate change adaptation options adopted by rural farmers in the region. The study was conducted among farming communities settled in three major ecological zones in Nigeria. Over 37 years of data on rainfall and temperature were analyzed to examine climate change impacts on three major crops: rice, maize, and cassava. Farmers’ adaptive capacity was assessed with a survey. Climatic data, crop yields, and survey data were analyzed using both descriptive and inferential statistics. The relation between rainfall/temperature and crop yields was examined using the Pearson correlation coefficient. Results show a high variation in the annual rainfall and temperature during the study period. The major findings from this research is that crops in different ecological zones respond differently to climate variation. The result revealed that there is a very strong relationship between precipitation and the yield of rice and cassava at p <0.05 level of significance. The results further showed low level of adaption among the rural farmers. The study concludes that rainfall and temperature variability has a significant impact on crop yield in the study area, but that the adaptive capacity of most farmers to these impacts is low. There is a need for enhancing the adaptation options available to farmers in the region, which should be the focus of government policies.

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“…Climate change will likely have small effects on average yields of major crops in Ethiopia (i.e., maize, wheat, and sorghum) [19] because agronomic conditions for cultivation of these crops may actually improve in large parts of the country. However, it is also believed that extreme weather events, such as drought and floods, will have a greater effect on crop yields.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effect of Climate-Smart Agriculture on Soil Fertility, Crop Yield, and Soil Carbon in Southern Ethiopia

Tadesse

Simane

Abera³

et al. 2021

Sustainability

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It is critical to develop technologies that simultaneously improve agricultural production, offset impacts of climate change, and ensure food security in a changing climate. Within this context, considerable attention has been given to climate-smart agricultural practices (CSA). This study was conducted to investigate the effects of integrating different CSA practices on crop production, soil fertility, and carbon sequestration after being practiced continuously for up to 10 years. The CSA practices include use of soil and water conservation (SWC) structures combined with biological measures, hedgerow planting, crop residue management, grazing management, crop rotation, and perennial crop-based agroforestry systems. The landscapes with CSA interventions were compared to farmers’ business-as-usual practices (i.e., control). Wheat (Triticum sp.) yield was quantified from 245 households. The results demonstrated that yield was 30–45% higher under CSA practices than the control (p < 0.05). The total carbon stored at a soil depth of 1 m was three- to seven-fold higher under CSA landscapes than the control. CSA interventions slightly increased the soil pH and exhibited 2.2–2.6 and 1.7–2.7 times more total nitrogen and plant-available phosphorus content, respectively, than the control. The time series Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) revealed higher soil moisture content under CSA. The findings illustrated the substantial opportunity of integrating CSA practices to build climate change resilience of resource-poor farmers through improving crop yield, reducing nutrient depletion, and mitigating GHG emissions through soil carbon sequestration.

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Climate change impacts on crop yields

Cited by 9 publications

References 13 publications

Quantifying Agroforestry Yield Buffering Potential Under Climate Change in the Smallholder Maize Farming Systems of Ethiopia

Quantifying Agroforestry Yield Buffering Potential Under Climate Change in the Smallholder Maize Farming Systems of Ethiopia

Climate Change Adaptation Options in Farming Communities of Selected Nigerian Ecological Zones

The Effect of Climate-Smart Agriculture on Soil Fertility, Crop Yield, and Soil Carbon in Southern Ethiopia

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