Climate change impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean and their implications for development

Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Adams, Sophie; Albrecht, Torsten; Baarsch, Florent; Boit, Alice; Trujillo, Nella Canales; Cartsburg, Matti; Coumou, Dim; Eden, Alexander; Fernandes, E. C. M.; Langerwisch, Fanny; Marcus, Rachel; Mengel, Matthias; Mira-Salama, Daniel; Perette, Mahé; Pereznieto, Paola; Rammig, Anja; Reinhardt, Julia; Robinson, Alexander; Rocha, Marcia; Sakschewski, Boris; Schaeffer, Michiel; Schleußner, Carl-Friedrich; Serdeczny, Olivia; Thonicke, Kirsten

doi:10.1007/s10113-015-0854-6

Cited by 115 publications

(67 citation statements)

References 202 publications

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“…Despite model agreement that the Caribbean region will get drier (Neelin et al 2006, Khalyani et al 2016, Herrera and Ault 2017, few studies have considered how drought affects Caribbean forests (but see Burrowes et al 2004, Reyer et al 2017, Yu et al 2017). Furthermore, most studies of drought in tropical forest have not considered how drought effects vary across heterogeneous landscapes, though most tropical forests are fragmented (Brinck et al 2017) and regenerating from anthropogenic disturbance (FAO 2010).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fragmentation, forest structure, and topography modulate impacts of drought in a tropical forest landscape

Schwartz

Budsock

Uriarte

2019

Ecology

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Climate models predict increases in drought conditions in many parts of the tropics. Yet the response of tropical forests to drought remains highly uncertain, especially with regards to the factors that generate spatial heterogeneity in drought response across landscapes. In this study, we used Landsat imagery to assess the impacts of a severe drought in 2015 across an ~80,000‐ha landscape in Puerto Rico. Specifically, we asked whether drought effects varied systematically with topography and with forest age, height, and fragmentation. We quantified drought impacts using anomalies of two vegetation indices, the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and normalized difference water index (NDWI), and fit random forest models of these metrics including slope, aspect, forest age, canopy height, and two indices of fragmentation as predictors. Drought effects were more severe on drier topographic positions, that is, steeper slopes and southwest‐facing aspects, and in second‐growth forests. Shorter and more fragmented forests were also more strongly affected by drought. We also assessed which factors were associated with stronger recovery from drought. Factors associated with more negative drought anomalies were also associated with more positive postdrought anomalies, suggesting that increased light availability as a result of drought led to high rates of recovery in forests more severely affected by drought. In general, recovery from drought was rapid across the landscape, with postdrought anomalies at or above average across the study area. This suggests that forests in Puerto Rico might be resilient to a single‐year drought, though vulnerability to drought varies depending on forest characteristics and landscape position.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fragmentation, forest structure, and topography modulate impacts of drought in a tropical forest landscape

Schwartz

Budsock

Uriarte

2019

Ecology

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“…The full storylines can be found in the respective regional impact papers. In Latin America and the Caribbean (Reyer et al 2017b), climate change endangers small and large-scale agricultural production, freshwater supplies and ecosystem services. Stronger extreme events are projected to affect both rural and urban communities, particularly living on steep slopes and in coastal regions.…”

Section: Summary Of the Regional Development Narrativesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The main contributions to this special feature are five regional impact papers summarizing climate impacts in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA, Serdeczny et al 2017), South Asia (SA Vinke et al 2017), Central Asia (CA, Reyer et al 2017a), Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC, Reyer et al 2017b) and Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA, Waha et al 2017) (Fig. 1).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Turn down the heat: regional climate change impacts on development

et al. 2017

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“…Compared to pre-industrial times, it is estimated that the mean temperature on the region will increase about 4.5°C by the end of the century (Reyer et al, 2015). Temperatures are expected to increase dramatically in the tropics and moderate at the subtropical regions in the north (Mexico) and south (southern Chile, Argentina and Uruguay) (Reyer et al, 2015). Annual precipitations are also likely to increase in Argentina, Uruguay, Brazil, Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia and decrease in the rest of the countries (Reyer et al, 2015).…”

Section: Does Latin America and The Caribbean Need To Worry About Phementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Temperatures are expected to increase dramatically in the tropics and moderate at the subtropical regions in the north (Mexico) and south (southern Chile, Argentina and Uruguay) (Reyer et al, 2015). Annual precipitations are also likely to increase in Argentina, Uruguay, Brazil, Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia and decrease in the rest of the countries (Reyer et al, 2015). These changes have a direct impact on agricultural crop yields.…”

Section: Does Latin America and The Caribbean Need To Worry About Phementioning

confidence: 99%

Latin America: A Development Pole for Phenomics

Camargo

Lobos

2016

Front. Plant Sci.

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Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) has long been associated with the production and export of a diverse range of agricultural commodities. Due to its strategic geographic location, which encompasses a wide range of climates, it is possible to produce almost any crop. The climate diversity in LAC is a major factor in its agricultural potential but this also means climate change represents a real threat to the region. Therefore, LAC farming must prepare and quickly adapt to an environment that is likely to feature long periods of drought, excessive rainfall and extreme temperatures. With the aim of moving toward a more resilient agriculture, LAC scientists have created the Latin American Plant Phenomics Network (LatPPN) which focuses on LAC's economically important crops. LatPPN's key strategies to achieve its main goal are: (1) training of LAC members on plant phenomics and phenotyping, (2) establish international and multidisciplinary collaborations, (3) develop standards for data exchange and research protocols, (4) share equipment and infrastructure, (5) disseminate data and research results, (6) identify funding opportunities and (7) develop strategies to guarantee LatPPN's relevance and sustainability across time. Despite the challenges ahead, LatPPN represents a big step forward toward the consolidation of a common mind-set in the field of plant phenotyping and phenomics in LAC.

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Climate change impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean and their implications for development

Cited by 115 publications

References 202 publications

Fragmentation, forest structure, and topography modulate impacts of drought in a tropical forest landscape

Fragmentation, forest structure, and topography modulate impacts of drought in a tropical forest landscape

Turn down the heat: regional climate change impacts on development

Latin America: A Development Pole for Phenomics

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